$trong dollar is back … 201209_200516 (NO SUP3R US$)

strong$ 200115 10yr the highest

… menunggu fase PEMBALIKAN ARAH $ index (kekuatan kurs dolar terhadap SEMUA mata uang global, termasuk rupiah), yaitu ikut GARIS ORANYE (turun) … karena saat itu biasanya PERTUMBUHAN global NAEK POSITIF lage … well, tekanan $index saat ini SUDAH MELAMPAUI puncak KRISIS 2008… well, sebenarnya secara ekonomi global saat ini nyaris tanpa krisis (karena harga minyak global n inflasi imut), tapi krisis eurozone n PERLAMBATAN pertumbuhan global menyebabkan ekspektasi investor global TIDAK MENJADI POSITIF … safe haven: dolar, frank Swiss, emas (?), dan yen (?) maseh diburu investor, terutama US$ seh… well, semua yang NAEK akan menuju PUNCAKNYA, sehingga juga akan TURUN (what goes up, must go down)… tunggu aza puncak $ index dan ekuilibrium perbaikan ekonomi global di bottom… 🙂
2010 saat fluktuasi bursa S&P terkait gejolak $ INDEX juga

… tidak terbantahkan kaitan KURS n GDP sebuah negara, khususnya negara yang MENGEKSPOR produk ke negara laen… begitu juga dengan amrik, LOKOMOTIF ekonomi GLOBAL:

united-states-gdp-growth vs uddollar 2001_2015tren dollar index (kurs dolar amrik atas keseluruhan mata uang global) n tren pertumbuhan GDP amrik, dalam periode 2000-2015, merupakan sebuah kondisi kontras, jika tren pertumbuhan gdp positif naek, maka biasanya kondisi dollar index sedang turun kursnya … bandingkan indikator garis tebal merah muda (pink) n garis tebal merah (red), tren pink menunjukkan kenaekan gdp yang positif, sedangkan red menunjukkan penurunan dollar index … lalu tren titik KUNING (YELLOW) menunjukan indikasi penurunan dollar index yang biasanya mendahului TREN PERTUMBUHAN GDP yang POSITIF naek , walau tetap aza ada kondisi tertentu tren garis tipis merah (THIN RED) yang menunjukkan tren kenaekan dollar index PRA PERTUMBUHAN GDP POSITIF NAEK … namun indikator THIN RED biasanya lebe sering mendahului PERTUMBUHAN GDP NEGATIF atawa turun  … pada 2015: jelas sekale tren THIN RED telah MERONTOKKAN PERTUMBUHAN GDP amrik … well, secara kasar berdasarkan grafik sederhana pertumbuhan us gdp n dollar index, tampaknya kondisi kenaekan atawa penurunan pertumbuhan US GDP terkait dengan tren perubahan dollar index yang turun atawa naek … 🙂



marketwatch I don’t write with a lot of angst generally, but I think I will be today and for the next several columns. Today’s topic, the dollar, is the linchpin for upcoming columns as I believe a lot of people are getting the dollar all wrong again and, in turn, a lot of other things wrong, too.

In several columns at my investment letter, I have pointed out that we appear to be closing in on a significant stock-market dislocation. When the correction happens, it will coincide with dollar strength. I am not sure which will come first, the correction or the stronger dollar. My guess is the dollar anticipates the correction, prods the correction along and then accelerates to the upside as the correction completes. I am very bullish right now on the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Bullish ETFUUP, +0.16%  and bearish on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, -0.81%  which will once again suffer as buyers leave the stock market on volatility.

Here are five reasons the dollar could get stronger soon:

  • A Brexit is a coin flip at this point. Leading up to the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, the dollar will strengthen. If the U.K. chooses to leave the EU, the dollar will move up significantly.
  • Greece and other southern European nations hit debt walls. While the focus will be on the continuing drama of the slow-motion Greek train wreck, banks in Italy and Spain are in trouble, too. The only way to kick these cans down the road is to weaken the euro even more, which makes the dollar stronger on relative terms.
  • China might devalue. While Donald Trump has been wrong about China keeping their currency to low — the reality is they have been pegging it too high in order to get into the IMF SDR which recently happened — the Chinese might actually devalue now that their economy is slowing and their debt has roughly doubled since the financial crisis.
  • Japan can’t win. They might as well do helicopter money and get it over with.
  • Hedge funds have started betting against the dollar. Most of the hedge fund managers are bad at what they do. I’ll leave it at that. Talk to Steve Cohen or Warren Buffett if you want more.

There are more reasons the dollar could get stronger, not the least of which is if the Fed feels compelled to raise interest rates. The only reason I didn’t include the Fed in my list and make it six reasons, is who knows what the Fed will do month to month. They haven’t been very clear about their intentions or even their motives as far as I’m concerned.

Where the perma-bears have it wrong

Getting back to the angst, the main reason I’m still irritated is because the perma-bears on the dollar have got it so wrong, yet have so many loyal followers who love to say “fiat currency” as if there is anything else. A few years ago I wrote that the buck was about to embark on a long-term run-up and would remain the world’s reserve currency for another 40 years. We’re just entering the fourth year of that period, and I don’t see anything to suggest I’m wrong. The dollar has just relaxed after a significant move up, and I believe is about to get stronger again soon.

Just to preempt the dollar-doomers who will hammer me in the comments section, I do agree that the United States has a debt problem and major obligation issues (say “entitlements” all you want to make it sound like we shouldn’t have to pay, but we have obligations to our own citizens). Currency strength is relative to other currencies’ strength. So, while the U.S. certainly has problems, Europe, Japan, China and the United Kingdom, the other four sponsors of the fiat currencies in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket, are in far worse shape than the United States.

Yes, that is the least-dirty-shirt argument, but it’s accurate. I know that doesn’t scream confidence, but does any American really want to be in euro, yen, yuan or pound instead of the dollar when it comes to maintaining purchasing power here in the United States? We all know what is going to happen when global debts really start to rebalance — which appears to me now is coming sooner than I originally expected — the dollar will surge and most asset prices will fall.

All of this is not to say the dollar will go straight up or avoid fluctuations. International and domestic economics, as well as, the Federal Reserve will push the dollar higher and lower from time to time. However, the dollar will be in a higher range than it was a few years ago for a very long time. That will make investing interesting. Those who follow the dollar will have a huge advantage in their portfolios. A stronger dollar also makes American standard of living better and you shouldn’t forget that many politicians know that too.

Kirk’s low cost investment letter Fundamental Trends has recommended UUP and puts on IWM. Kirk Spano and clients of Bluemound Asset Management have positions in UUP and puts on IWM. Neither Spano nor Bluemound clients plan any transactions in the next three trading days. Opinions subject to change at any time without notice.


Tokyo, Nov 20, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar edged down for a second day against emerging market currencies in Asia Friday as dealers focus on the pace of the expected rise in US interest rates.

Confidence among traders has been boosted after minutes from the Federal Reserve Wednesday showed its policymakers are satisfied the US economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike next month.

The key beneficiaries have been the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesia’s rupiah, which each surged more than half a percent Friday following healthy gains the day before.

“The pullback seen in the US dollar in the wake of the Fed minutes does seem to reflect a lot of uncertainty around the pace of rate hikes by the Fed,” Angus Nicholson of IG told clients in an email.

“It is this US dollar weakness and ongoing swoon in commodity prices that provides a jarring counterpoint to the gains seen in Asian equities of late.”

The greenback edged up to 122.97 yen from 122.87 yen while the euro was at $1.0705 against $1.0735. However, on Wednesday in New York the dollar was at a near three-month high of 123.59 yen.

The euro fell to 131.64 yen Friday from 131.90 yen late Thursday.

“Traders are pulling back from their long dollar trades for now, given speculation that the Fed’s tightening cycle may be more gradual than the market had previously priced,” Imre Speizer, markets strategist at Westpac Banking in Auckland, told Bloomberg News.

The dollar continued to face headwinds from higher-yielding, or riskier, emerging units Friday.

The ringgit rose 1.53 percent, while the rupiah tacked on 0.97 percent and the South Korean won added 0.64 percent.

The Taiwan dollar and Thai baht also pushed higher.

dollar small

JAKARTA.  Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pada penutupan perdagangan Senin (16/11/2015) atau Selasa pagi WIB kembali menguat.

Indeks dolar AS yang menjadi acuan kekuatan terhadap 10 mata uang utama pada penutupan perdagangan Senin menguat 0,45% ke 99,442.

Pada Jumat, indeks dolar AS menguat 0,35% ke 98,998.

Dolar AS menguat sejak terjadi serangan teroris di Paris, yang mendorong investor beralih ke safe haven.

Namun analis menilai gejolak pasar uang sudah mereda, dan menuju kestabilan kembali.

“Kami mungkin tidak akan melihat banyak dari reaksi negatif.  Itu setidaknya membantu pasar uang menuju gerak kembali stabil,” kata Frank Cappelleri, Teknisi Pasar Instinet LLC seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Selasa (17/11/2015).

Dikemukakan sejarah insiden teror di seluruh dunia selama 15 tahun terakhir menunjukkan reaksi pasar sering tajam tapi hanya dalam jangka pendek.


Posisi indeks dolar AS


16  November


13 November


12 November










Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015

rose KECIL


NEW YORK – Kurs dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) turun terhadap mata uang utama lainnya di perdagangan New York setelah greenback melonjak ke tingkat tertinggi dalam tujuh bulan terakhir di sesi sebelumnya.

Seperti dilansir Xinhua, Kamis (12/11/2015), dolar AS menguat terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama pada Selasa karena bank sentral negara itu berada di jalur untuk menaikkan suku bunga pada akhir tahun, sementara Bank Sentral Eropa mengisyaratkan untuk melepaskan stimulus lebih lanjut guna meningkatkan perekonomian.

Indeks dolar, yang mengukur greenback terhadap enam mata uang utama, naik 0,35 persen menjadi 99,322 pada akhir perdagangan Selasa, tingkat tertinggi sejak April.

Namun, indeks mundur menjadi 98,948 pada akhir perdagangan Rabu karena greenback mengambil jeda dari kenaikan baru-baru ini di Hari Veteran.

Dolar AS telah meningkat didukung laporan ketenagakerjaan kuat yang dirilis pekan lalu, memicu ekspektasi pasar untuk kenaikan suku bunga dalam pertemuan kebijakan Federal Reserve berikutnya pada Desember.

Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS mengatakan pada Jumat bahwa total gaji pegawai non pertanian meningkat 271.000 pada Oktober, mengalahkan konsensus pasar untuk kenaikan 190.000 pekerja baru.

Pada akhir perdagangan di New York, euro naik menjadi USD1,0704 dari USD1,0704 di sesi sebelumnya, dan pound Inggris naik menjadi 1,5220 dolar AS dari 1,5103 dolar pada sesi sebelumnya. Dolar Australia naik menjadi USD0,7058 dari USD0,7020 dolar.

Dolar AS dibeli 122,90 yen Jepang, lebih rendah dari 123,24 yen di sesi sebelumnya. Dolar AS turun menjadi 1,0045 franc Swiss dari 1,0077 franc Swiss, dan turun menjadi 1,3267 dolar Kanada dari 1,3276 dolar Kanada.



One technical indicator suggests that the dollar has reached its most overbought level in 30 years.

The z-scores of the currencies that comprise the ICE U.S. Dollar Index — the Canadian dollar, yen, British pound, Swiss franc, euro and Australian dollar — have all risen above six simultaneously for the first time since 1985.

The index DXY, -0.25%  is a widely watched measure of the dollar’s strength. (While there was no euro in 1985, the shared currency eventually replaced several European currencies as a constituent of the index).

For those who haven’t taken an advanced statistics class, the z-score allows statisticians to make an apples-to-apples comparison between different data sets.

If you’d like to learn more about the significance of the z-score, check out this handy Investopedia article.

According to the analysts at Sundial Capital Research who compiled the report, the dollar’s relative valuation swelled to this level twice during the dollar rally of the early 80s — once in July 1982, and again in March 1985.

As the charts below illustrate, the second hit immediately preceded a turning point in the dollar’s long-term trend.

When the opposite was true — meaning the dollar was oversold against these same six rivals — short-term rallies ensued.

But this milestone likely doesn’t mean the end of the dollar rally is imminent. The analysts acknowledge that the sample size of the dollar’s rivals is “ridiculously small,” and that the bullish trend didn’t reverse until the second signal arrived.

This signal comes as the dollar index is preparing to cross above the 100-mark for the first time since March — a level that analysts are watching with great anticipation. It was down 0.3% on the day to 98.9940 in recent trading.

Tokyo, Nov 10, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar edged down against most emerging market units Tuesday after the previous day’s surge but ticked up against its major peers, maintaining its strength on growing expectations of a US interest rate hike this year.

The greenback has seen demand surge after Friday’s US jobs report that indicated the world’s number one economy continues to improve despite weakness elsewhere, particularly China.

High-yielding, riskier, currencies were hammered Monday as investors shifted their focus back to the dollar in the wake of the jobs data, which ramped up expectations the Federal Reserve will begin tightening monetary policy next month.

Higher-yielding, or riskier, emerging units have been hit hard this year on fears of a flight of capital to the United States as dealers look for better, safer investments on the back of the looming US rate lift-off.

However, they saw some respite Tuesday and recovered somewhat, led by Malaysian ringgit, South Korean won, Indonesian rupiah heading higher. There were also gains for Thailand’s baht and Indian rupee.

“The (US) job figures were really striking, which made the market think that the Fed is going ahead with a rate hike,” said Yosuke Hosokawa, head of the FX sales team at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

“But we still have a month to go before a December meeting,” Hosokawa told AFP.

It’s not going to be a one-way rise in the dollar,” he said. “The current dollar-buying sentiment will remain unchanged, but its speed needs to be adjusted.”

The greenback edged up against the yen and euro Tuesday after spending the morning in the red. It changed hands at 123.27 yen in Tokyo, compared with 123.19 yen Monday in New York.

The euro fetched $1.0745 against $1.0748. It was also at 132.48 yen from 132.40 yen.

The greenback has been benefiting from the diverging policies of central banks as the Fed anticipates raising its benchmark federal funds rate from near zero, where it has been parked since December 2008.

Other central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, are on an aggressive course of monetary easing to boost faltering economic growth.

JAKARTA.  Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pada perdagangan pagi ini, Kamis (5/11/2015) melemah tipis, setelah menguat signifikan pada penutupan perdagangan Rabu.

Pada penutupan Rabu, indeks dolar AS menguat 0,82% ke 97,950.

Sementara itu saat pembukaan pada perdagangan hari ini, Kamis (5/11/2015), indeks dolar AS melemah 0,03 % ke 97,921.

Pada pk. 08.33 WIB, indeks dolar jadi melemah 0,07% ke 97,884, dan bergerak di kisaran 97,834—97,950.

“Indeks dolar menguat,” kata Ekonom Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Rangga Cipta dalam risetnya yang diterima hari ini, Kamis (5/11/2015).

Dia mengatakan dalam pidatonya semenjak FOMC meeting terakhir yang hawkish, Gubernur Federal Reserve Janet Yellen kembali menekankan peluang kenaikan Fed Rate pada FOMC berikutnya pada Desember 2015.

Pernyataan tersebut makin menguatkan dolar, setelah dirilisnya data ekonomi AS yang membaik semalam.

“Sentimen tersebut berhasil mendorong penguatan indeks dolar. Malam nanti ditunggu initial jobless claims AS yang berpeluang stabil,” kata Rangga.


Posisi indeks dolar AS


Pk.08:33 WIB

(5 November)



(5 November)


4 November










Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015




Bisnis.com, JAKARTA- Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat, yang mengukur kekuatan uang greenback terhadap enam mata uang utama, turun 0,52% menjadi 97,272 pada akhir perdagangan Kamis atau Jumat pagi WIB.

Pada akhir perdagangan di New York, euro naik menjadi 1,0980 dolar AS dari 1,0901 dolar di sesi sebelumnya, dan poundsterling Inggris naik menjadi 1,5315 dolar AS dari 1,5251 dolar pada sesi sebelumnya. Dolar Australia turun menjadi 0,7077 dari 0,7086.

Dolar AS dibeli 121,11 yen Jepang, lebih rendah dari 121,21 yen dari sesi sebelumnya. Dolar AS turun menjadi 0,9897 franc Swiss dari 0,9952 franc Swiss, dan turun menjadi 1,3158 dolar Kanada dari 1,3214 dolar Kanada, seperti dikutip Antara, Jumat (30/10/2015).

Kurs dolar AS turun terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama pada Kamis (Jumat pagi WIB), karena investor menimbang kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga bank sentral AS Federal Reserve tahun ini setelah rilis data pertumbuhan ekonomi negara tersebut.

Produk domestik bruto (PDB) AS tumbuh 1,5% pada kuartal ketiga, turun dari angka 3,9% pada kuartal kedua. Sementara iyu gagal memenuhi ekspektasi pasar 1,7%, seperti dirilis Departemen Perdagangan AS Kamis.

Dikemukakan pertumbuhan lebih lambat pada kuartal ketiga terutama akibat penurunan dalam investasi persediaan swasta dan pelambatan ekspor, konsumsi dan pengeluaran pemerintah.

Data PDB suram mengurangi ekspektasi pasar untuk kenaikan suku bunga pada akhir tahun, yang mencuat dalam sesi sebelumnya oleh pernyataan hawkish Fed.

Setelah pertemuan kebijakan moneter dua hari yang dimulai Selasa, para pejabat Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan tidak berubah. Namun mengambil langkah yang tidak biasa yaitu membuka peluang guna kenaikan suku bunga pada pertemuan Fed berikutnya pada Desember.

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pada perdagangan pagi ini, Senin (26/10/2015) melemah tipis.

Indeks dolar AS seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, pada perdagangan hari ini, Senin (26/10/2015) dibuka melemah tipis ke 97,123.  Pada Jumat, indeks dolar ditutup naik 0,78% ke 97,127.

Pada pk. 06:38 WIB, indeks yang menjadi tolok ukur kekuatan dolar AS terhadap 10 mata uang utama tersebut jadi melemah 0,11% ke 97,024.

Saat ini jadwal rapat bank sentral AS Federal Resever menjadi sentimen utama pergerakan dolar.

Seperti diketahui, pekan ini Fed menggelar rapat. Dari lamannya disebutkan rapat akan digelar pada 27—28 Oktober 2015.

Salah satu putusan yang ditunggu adalah ketentuan besaran Fed Rate.


Posisi indeks dolar AS


Pk.06:38 WIB

(26 Oktober)



23 Oktober 94,127


 22 Oktober  96,378









Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015


NEW YORK-Kurs dolar AS turun terhadap mata uang utama lainnya pada Rabu (Kamis pagi WIB), karena data ekonomi lemah dari negara itu mengurangi ekspektasi pasar untuk kenaikan suku bunga pada akhir tahun ini.

Departemen Tenaga Kerja melaporkan pada Rabu bahwa Indeks Harga Produsen AS untuk permintaan akhir turun 0,5 persen pada September, disesuaikan secara musiman, melebihi konsensus pasar untuk penurunan 0,1 persen.

Departemen Perdagangan mengumumkan pada Rabu bahwa estimasi awal penjualan ritel dari jasa makanan AS untuk September meningkat 0,1 persen dari bulan sebelumnya menjadi 447,7 miliar dolar AS, sejalan dengan ekspektasi pasar.

Data ekonomi yang lemah secara keseluruhan mengangkat kekhawatiran bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi AS mungkin akan kehilangan momentum dalam menghadapi ekonomi global yang lesu.

Greenback lebih lanjut di bawah tekanan karena Beige Book Federal Reserve pada Rabu mengatakan bahwa mata uang AS yang kuat telah menahan industri pariwisata dan manufaktur.

Indeks dolar, yang mengukur greenback terhadap enam mata uang utama, turun 0,87 persen menjadi 93,939 pada akhir perdagangan.

Pada akhir perdagangan di New York, euro naik menjadi 1,1478 dolar AS dari 1,1383 dolar di sesi sebelumnya, dan pound Inggris naik menjadi 1,5479 dolar AS dari 1,5253 dolar di sesi sebelumnya. Dolar Australia naik menjadi 0,7283 dolar dari 0. 7272 dolar.

Dolar AS dibeli 118,82 yen Jepang, lebih rendah dari 119,81 yen dari sesi sebelumnya. Dolar AS turun ke 0,9488 franc Swiss dari 0,9580 franc Swiss, dan ia turun menjadi 1,2937 dolar Kanada dari 1,3006 dolar Kanada.(ant/hrb)



Hong Kong, Oct 12, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar on Monday clawed back some of last week’s losses against emerging market currencies after a top Federal Reserve official raised the prospect of a 2015 interest rate hike, while hopes for a pick-up in demand helped oil to score more gains.

The greenback tumbled after data at the start of the month showed US jobs creation stuttered in September, complicating the Fed’s plan to increase borrowing costs and tempering worries about a withdrawal of investment from developing economies.

Regional equities also surged last week on hopes for easier US monetary policy, bouncing back after their worst quarter in four years. And most markets extended those gains on Monday, with Shanghai enjoying a third straight rally after a week-long holiday.

Global markets went into meltdown in August after China devalued its yuan currency, fanning worries about the state of the world’s number two economy, while traders were also on edge over the expected US rate rise.

On Sunday Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer said the bank expected to stick to its plan to tighten monetary policy by the end of the year, although he added that the plans were an “expectation, not a commitment”.

He added that “both the timing of the first rate increase and any subsequent adjustments to the federal funds rate target will depend critically on future developments in the economy”.

While his comments, on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Lima, do not indicate the Fed will lift rates, they show that policymakers continue to keep it a consideration.

The dollar edged up in Asian trade against emerging currencies, including the Australian dollar, Thai baht and South Korean won.

Rate hike likely delayed

It also enjoyed advances against Indonesia’s rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit. However, the gains were small compared with last losses of about eight percent against the rupiah and almost seven percent versus the ringgit.

“The only data supporting raising the Fed funds rate has been employment, which has begun to shrink in the last quarter,” Evan Lucas, a markets strategist at IG Ltd. in Melbourne, said in an e-mail to clients.

“Coupled with increased talks of the approaching debt-ceiling negotiations, not to mention the 2016 presidential elections, all means we are seeing signs of the liftoff being pushed back, as inflation remains nowhere to be seen,” he said, according to Bloomberg News.

The weaker dollar has also helped rally oil prices in recent weeks while bets on a pick-up in demand for the commodity provided further uplift.

Crude prices have risen by more than a quarter since hitting a six-year low in August as worries about a stronger dollar, a supply glut and weak demand ease.

In early trade US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose 58 percent to $49.92 and Brent was up 40 percent to $52.86.

On Sunday the secretary general of oil cartel OPEC Abdullah el-Badri said he was confident the market will be “more balanced” next year as non-OPEC production contracts and global demand rises. However, he did admit the “market remains oversupplied“.

His comments come after he said Thursday demand will rise more than projected this year.

In equity trading Hong Kong rose one percent, Shanghai added 1.5 percent and Seoul gained 0.5 percent. Tokyo was closed for a public holiday. However, Sydney retreated 0.7 percent after rising every day last week.


<org idsrc=”isin” value=”JE00B4T3BW64″>Glencore</org>

<org idsrc=”isin” value=”HK0883009984″>CNOOC</org>

<org idsrc=”isin” value=”CN0009365379″>PetroChina</org>

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JAKARTA.   Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pada perdagangan pagi ini, Rabu (7/10/2015) melemah meski mencoba menguat saat dibuka.

Indeks dolar AS seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, pada perdagangan hari ini, Rabu (7/10/2015) dibuka menguat 0,04% ke 95,490.  Pada Senin, indeks dolar ditutup melemah 0,68% ke 95,455.

Pada pk. 07:08 WIB, indeks yang menjadi tolok ukur kekuatan dolar AS terhadap 10 mata uang utama tersebut berbalik melemah 0,01% ke 95,447, dan bergerak di kisaran 95,437&mdash;96,501.

“(Pelemahan indeks dolar AS setelah) ada sinyal sepertinya (Fed) tidak akan terburu-buru untuk melakukannya (kenaikan suku bunga),” kata Jeremy Stretch, Kepala Strategi Valuta Asing Canada Imperial Bank of Commerce seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Rabu (7/10/2015).


Posisi indeks dolar AS


Pk.07:08 WIB

(7 Oktober)



(7 Oktober)


6 Oktober









Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015



Jakarta – Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) RI Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan nilai tukar rupiah mulai menguat terhadap dolar AS dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Itu karena sinyal The Fed (Bank Sentral AS) untuk menaikkan suku bunga mulai mereda.

“Kepastian AS untuk menaikkan tingkat bunga makin lama makin kecil, bahkan kemungkinan lebih besar (suku bunga naik) pada 2016. Itu yang membuat semua mata uang menguat dan rupiah yang sangat undervalue, menguat,” jelas Menkeu di Jakarta, Selasa (06/10/2015).

Ia menjelaskan isu kenaikan suku bunga The Fed akan mereda hingga akhir tahun 2015, namun kemungkinan isu tersebut akan muncul lagi pada 2016 apabila perekonomian di Amerika Serikat mulai membaik.

“Perkiraannya sampai isu kenaikan suku bunga The Fed muncul lagi (tahun depan), kalau sekarang isunya hilang dulu,” ujar dia.

Selain itu, menurut dia, penguatan kurs rupiah juga terpengaruh oleh kondisi domestik yaitu tidak adanya permintaan dolar AS yang luar biasa di dalam negeri, sehingga untuk sementara rupiah tidak bergejolak terlalu tajam.

Berita sebelumnya, nilai tukar rupiah yang ditransaksikan antarbank di Jakarta, Selasa (06/10/2015) sore bergerak menguat sebesar 268 poin menjadi Rp14.243 dibandingkan posisi sebelumnya pada posisi Rp14.511 per dolar AS.

“Penguatan dolar AS terhenti sejak menyusul sinyal kenaikan suku bunga acuan bank sentral Amerika Serikat (Fed Fund Rate) cenderung mereda seiring dengan beberapa data ekonomi disana yang melambat,” ujar Kepala Riset Monex Investindo Futures Ariston Tjendra.

Menurut dia, penurunan beberapa data ekonomi AS yang menjadi indikator The Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga membuat sebagian pelaku pasar beropini bahwa The Fed kemungkinan baru akan menyesuaikan suku bunga acuan pada 2016.

Kondisi rupiah dan beberapa mata uang negara di Asia yang terapresiasi, menyebabkan sentimen positif dan membuat Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada Selasa sore ditutup naik sebesar 102,08 poin.

IHSG BEI ditutup menguat sebesar 102,08 poin atau 2,35 persen menjadi 4.445,78. Sementara kelompok 45 saham unggulan atau LQ45 bergerak naik 25,61 poin (3,49 persen) menjadi 759,31.


Bisnis.com, JAKARTAPelemahan rupiah terus mengerek yield SUN di pasar sekunder pada Jumat (25/9/2015). Currency Default Swap Indonesia naik ke level tertinggi dalam 2 tahun.

Data dari Bloomberg menunjukkan yield SUN FR70 naik 2 basis poin ke 9,471% pada pukul 10.40 WIB. Harga SUN bertenor 9 tahun tersebut turun 0,11% ke level 93,708.

Rangga Cipta, analis dari Samuel Sekuritas, mengatakan gejolak rupiah dan inflasi yang masih tinggi membuat yield SUN terus menanjak.

Tren inflasi Indonesia, jelasnya, berlawanan dengan tren inflasi global hingga yield SUN masih menanjak meski yield obligasi global di dalam tren penurunan.

Inflasi yang tinggi masih akan bertahan hingga efek penaikan harga BBM Oktober 2014 hilang di penghujung tahun.

Adapun depresiasi tajam rupiah dalam sepakan terakhir mendorong risiko aset berdenominasi rupiah. Hal tersebut terindikasi dari kenaikan currency default swap Indonesia ke level tertinggi dalam 2 tahun terakhir.

“Itu cerminan dari aset yang kehilangan nilainya, sejalan dengan pelemahan aset denominasi rupiah. Pelemahan rupiah berpeluang berlanjut begitupun SUN yang korelasinya cukup erat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir,” kata Rangga.

CDS Indonesia bertenor 5 tahun kini berada di level 264,606, level tertinggi sejak 26 Agustus 2013.

Adapun rupiah berpotensi mencetak pekan terburuk sejak 2013 dengan pelemahan melebihi 2%.

Pada pukul 10.50 WIB, rupiah melemah 0,02% atau 3 poin ke Rp14.687 per dolar AS. Mata uang Garuda hari ini berfluktuasi antara pelemahan 43 poin ke Rp14.727 per dolar AS dan penguatan 34 poin ke Rp14.650 per dolar AS



Pergerakan SUN Seri FR70 di Pasar Sekunder


Tanggal Harga Yield (%)

(10.40 WIB)

93,708 (-0,11%) 9,471
24/9/2015 93,811 (-0,23%) 9,452
23/9/2015 94,029 (-1,54%) 9,413


sumber: Bloomberg

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Asian Development Bank (ADB) menyarankan otoritas kebijakan keuangan di kawasan Asia berkembang mencari keseimbangan antara upaya menstabilkan sektor keuangan dan langkah mendorong permintaan domestik.
Hal itu sebagai upaya untuk mengatasi dampak kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat atau Fed Fund Rate,

Direktur ADB untuk Indonesia Steven Tabor mengatakan langkah lanjutan guna membangun pasar keuangan dalam negeri yang likuid dan berkembang dengan baik, dapat membantu mengurangi ketergantungan sektor swasta terhadap pinjaman dalam mata uang asing.dengan menurunkEn BI Rate, BI MENGURANGI PINJAMAN dalam MATA UANG A$1NK

“Penguatan dolar AS menjadi ancaman bagi perusahaan asia yang memiliki paparan besar terhadap mata uang asing. Data menunjukkan bahwa porsi utang dalam mata uang asing di antara berbagai perusahaan Indonesia, Vietnam dan Srilanka mencapai lebih dari 65%,” ujarnya di Hotel Intercontinental Jakarta, Selasa (22/9/2015).
Harga komoditas di dunia yang turut melemah termasuk minyak dan pangan, menyebabkan rendahnya tekanan harga dengan inflasi regional yang diproyeksikan menurun ke 2,3% pada 2015 dari sebelumnya 3,0% pada 2014, meskipun peningkatan inflasi diperkirakan akan terjadi pada 2016.
“Menurunnya minat China terhadap energi, logam, dan komoditas lainnya, serta lemahnya harga komoditas dunia menimbulkan kekhawatiran bagi sejumlah negara di kawasan Asia yang sedang berkembanh yang perekonomiannya berfokus pada ekspor komoditas termasuk Indonesia, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, dan Kazakhstan,” katanya.
Steven menambahkan arus modal keluar netto dari pasar kawasan Asia berkembang meningkat dengan cepat pada paruh pertama 2015, melebihi US$125 miliar.
“Arus modal keluar ini karena perhatian investor sebagai antisipasi naiknya suku bunga AS tak lama lagi. Konsekuensinya, premium bagi risiko bagi kawasan Asia terus meningkat dan nilai tukar mata uang terus melemah sehingga menghambat momentum pertumbuhan,” tuturnya.

Hong Kong, Sept 22, 2015 (AFP)
Comments from top Federal Reserve officials suggesting an interest rate hike is still on this year pushed the dollar and Asian stocks higher Tuesday, as they sought to sooth concerns about the state of the global economy.

World markets tumbled on uncertainty about the global outlook after the US central bank on Thursday held off announcing a rise, with its head Janet Yellen citing the threats caused by China’s economy as a key reason for the decision.

The news sparked fears about the global outlook and also about the strength of the US economy itself, which has been steadily getting back on a recovery track.

However, in an attempt to temper the impact of the news, several regional presidents have since sought to reassure dealers, saying they thought the US was in a fit enough state to see a first rate rise by the year’s end.

Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said despite recent volatility in world markets — which followed China’s surprise yuan depreciation in August — he was still confident of a rate lift-off before 2016.

“As things settle down, I will be ready for the first policy move on the path to a more normal interest-rate environment,” he said in a speech in Atlanta. “I am confident the much-used phrase ‘later this year’ is still operative.”

His comments were in line with those of two other presidents who at the weekend put the case for an increase.

All three main indexes on Wall Street ended higher, as the dollar.

And on Tuesday the dollar was at 120.42 yen compared with 119.93 yen in Asia Monday. The greenback was also higher against regional emerging currencies. The euro weakened against the dollar and yen as the European Central Bank contemplates widening its stimulus programme in a bid to boost the eurozone economy.

– Fed policy fears –

South Korea’s won slipped 0.21 percent, the Thai baht eased 0.35 percent, the Taiwan dollar retreated 0.47 percent and the Malaysian ringgit was 0.23 percent lower. Singapore’s dollar lost 0.25 percent.

Asian stock markets also advanced as their initial fears were subdued. Hong Kong rose 0.76 percent, Sydney gained 0.63 percent, Seoul was 0.33 percent higher and Shanghai climbed 1.02 percent.

Shanghai stocks enjoyed a third straight gain as President Xi Jinping prepares to start a closely watched visit to the United States, with many dealers hoping he will sign several trade agreements.

However, Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager at Pengana Capital in Melbourne, told Bloomberg News: “While we may see a moderately positive day for Asian equities following gains in US equities, its hard to see such gains being sustained amid concerns over Fed policy.

“The reluctance of the Fed to move from very accommodative policy settings seems to indicate how fragile the US economy can be.”

There remain deep fears in Asia about a tightening of US monetary policy owing to a likely flight of much-needed capital as traders move into the United States in search of better returns.

This would in turn put pressure on Asian central banks to lift rates themselves in a bid to protect their currencies, at a time when they are struggling to kickstart tepid growth at home.


<org idsrc=”isin” value=”JP3892100003″>Sumitomo Mitsui Trust</org>

Jakarta &mdash;  Dolar AS merosot terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama dunia, Kamis (17/9), setelah Federal Reserve tak menaikkan sukubunga acuannya.

Para petinggi bank sentral AS menegskan bahwa kenaikan sukubunga acuan tidak akan terjadi hingga 2016 mendatang.

Penurunan dolar langsung terjadi tak lama setelah The Fed mengumumkan kebijakannya bersama dengan proyeksi ekonomi AS.

Dalam pernyataan yang dikutip Marketwatch, The Fed mengacu pada perkembangan ekonomi dan keuangan global terkini, yang tergambar dari melambatnya ekonomi dan bursa saham di China, dinilai dapat memberikan ancaman terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi AS.

Para pembuat kebijakan juga merevisi turun proyeksi inflasi jangka panjang, sebagai indikasi bahwa perekonomian AS masih rawan untuk bergerak tumbuh.

Euro menguat hingga ke level $1,1444 sesaat setelah Yellen selesai menggelar konferensi pers. Ini merupakan lebel tertinggi bagi euro sejak 26 Agustus. Euro kini berada di level $1,1421, naik 1,2% dari $1,1289 pada penutupan perdagangan sehari sebelumnya.

Sementara terhadap yen Jepang, dolar AS jatuh ke posisi ¥119,80. Saat ini dolar AS berada di level ¥119,95, melamah 0,6% dari level sehari sebelumnya di ¥120,56.

Sumber : IMQ21.COM

JAKARTA.   Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pada perdagangan pagi ini, Rabu (16/9/2015) bergerak melemah.

Indeks dolar AS seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, pada perdagangan hari ini, Rabu (16/9/2015) dibuka melemah 0,02% ke 95,596. Pada Selasa, indeks dolar ditutup menguat 0,38% ke 95,611.

Pada pk. 07:15 WIB, indeks jadi ke 95,548 atau turun 0,07%, dan bergerak di kisaran 95,537&mdash;95,613.

Selasa, indeks dolar menguat setelah rilis penjualan ritel AS naik untuk bulan kedua berturut-turut yang bisa menjadi pertimbangan bagi Federal Reserve untuk meningkatkan suku bunga. Meski kenaikan Agustus lebih rendah dari Juli.

Penjualan ritel AS naik 0,2% pada Agustus. Pada Juli, kenaikan mencapai 0,7%.

Mata uang AS menguat bersama dengan bursa saham, setelah sinyal pertumbuhan ekonomi terjaga tergambar dari kenaikan penjualan ritel.

“Mengingat data penjualan ritel baik, masih ada harapan Fed,” kata Mark McCormick, Ahli Strategi Valuta Asing Credit Agricole SA seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Rabu (16/9/2015).

The Fed akan bertemu pada 16-17 September, untuk mempertimbangkan kenaikan suku bunga.

Pasar memprediksi peluang kenaikan Fed Rate sebesar 28%.  Peluang tersebut telah turun dari sebelumnya sebesar 38% pada akhir Agustus.

“Kenaikan suku bunga yang paling dovish dalam sejarah kebijakan moneter. Itu akan agak positif untuk dolar,” kata Greg Anderson, Kepala Global Strategi Valuta Asing Bank of Montreal.


Posisi indeks dolar AS


Pk.07:15 WIB

(16 September)



(16 September)


15 September









Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015



per tgl 15 Sep 2015, I reflect myself on the following article of the developed countries economy:

the money: Britain and the United States were at the epicentre of the financial crisis that claimed Lehman Brothers seven years ago today.

The dramatic collapse of the 158-year-old banking giant, on September 15, 2008, plunged the world’s already teetering financial system into crisis and triggered a brutal global recession.

Seven years on, the British and American economies are now among the strongest in the developed world with both the Bank of England and Federal Reserve looking at raising interest rates for the first time since the crash.

Turmoil: A worker leaves Lehman’s London HQ in Canary Wharf on the morning of its collapse

The Fed, led by Janet Yellen, could make its move this week. But the prospect of higher interest rates comes at a time of mounting concern over the state of the global economy – and the onset of the next crisis.

There is particular anxiety over China and other emerging markets from Brazil and Russia to South Africa. Uncertainty in Greece and malaise in the wider eurozone economy continues to cause alarm.

It has been a torrid summer for investors with markets around the world swinging violently.

Shares in China were on the slide again yesterday, with the stock market in Shanghai down another 2.67 per cent, taking losses since June in what has been dubbed ‘The Great Fall of China’ to 39.71 per cent.

The rout has taken its toll on commodities and emerging market currencies – and left investors across the West in a jittery mood.

Last month was the worst for the FTSE 100 index in London for more than three years and the blue chip benchmark is nearly 15 per cent off the all-time high reached in April.

Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers warns: ‘We could be in the early stage of a very serious situation.’

Watchdogs, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements, are concerned about the onset of another crisis.

Consultants at McKinsey believe that global debt has risen by £37trillion or 17 per cent of global income since the fall of Lehman.

A report by BIS warns that debt levels have reached extreme levels – leaving the financial system vulnerable to higher interest rates in the US.

Claudio Borio, chief economist at BIS, warns it is ‘unrealistic and dangerous to expect’ that central banks ‘can cure all of the global economy’s ills’ through low interest rates and money printing and BIS is calling for an end to the era of ultra-cheap money.

The IMF and World Bank are not so sure and have urged the Fed to delay ‘lift- off’ until later this year or even next year given the state of the global economy.

Much of the concern stems from China which has become an increasingly important driver of world growth in recent years.

Economic output in China rose by 7.4 per cent last year – its slowest pace in 24 years – and Beijing looks set to struggle to meet its full-year growth target of ‘around 7 per cent’ this year.

Figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development show growth across the G20 remained steady at 0.7 per cent in the second quarter.

But while countries such as China, India, the UK and the US continue to grow, Canada, Brazil, Japan and South Africa all suffered contraction. Growth remains muted in the eurozone and non-existent in France.

Willem Buiter, a former Bank of England official and now chief economist at Citigroup, says there is a 55 per cent chance of another global slump in the coming years.

Vince Cable, the former Liberal Democrat business secretary in the last Coalition government, insists the world is not heading for ‘a new Lehman moment’.

But he warns of ‘unknown unknowns’, adding the global economy is ‘very fragile’ and the eurozone ‘is in a terrible mess’. (menurut gw mirip dengan paparan Taleb  soal “BLACK SWAN”)

Lord Turner knows what it is like to be taken by surprise. He was appointed chairman of the now defunct Financial Services Authority, a week after the collapse of Lehman.

‘We faced the biggest financial crisis in 80 years,’ he writes in his new book, Between Debt And The Devil. ‘Seven days before I started, I had had no idea we were on the verge of disaster.

Turner warns that ‘excessive’ debt could cause the next crisis.

Of course, he was not alone in being taken by surprise by the last crash. The Queen famously asked in spring 2009: ‘Why did no one see this coming?’

The answer, from the British Academy a few months later, was that there had been ‘a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people’.

Seven years on, the storm clouds are gathering once again, as the world struggles to bounce back from the collapse of Lehman and its painful aftermath.


per tgl 9 September 2015, the dollar index under 100:


Tokyo, Aug 31, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar slipped against the yen and euro Monday on fears that China’s economic malaise could drag on global growth, reversing a rally that had been fuelled by hopes of a September US rate rise.

In Tokyo afternoon trade, the dollar weakened to 121.10 yen from 121.52 yen late Friday in New York.

The euro rose to $1.1249 and 136.24 yen from $1.1188 and 135.97 yen in US trade.

Speaking at the weekend on the sidelines of the Fed’s central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer acknowledged that the turmoil rooted in China had raised some questions about the economic situation, even if US data remains good.

“The change in the circumstances which began with the Chinese devaluation (of the yuan) is relatively new and we are still watching how it unfolds. So I wouldn’t want to go ahead and decide right now (on a September rise),” he said in a CNBC interview.

“We’ve got a little over two weeks before we make the decision and we’ve got time to wait and see the incoming data and see what exactly, what is going on now in the economy.”

Fischer’s remarks were taken as a sign that the US central bank was still considering a rate rise as early as next month.

Higher rates tend to boost the dollar as investors seek out higher-yielding assets.

But on Monday renewed concerns about China set in as markets look ahead to the release of manufacturing data this week.

Some economists tipped a contraction in activity in August, which would be the first since February, according to Bloomberg News.

“We have no doubt that financial market volatility will have as much or more bearing than economic data volatility on the Fed’s 17 September policy decision,” National Australia Bank said in a commentary.

“In this respect we have to be mistrustful that the strong resurgence in Chinese stock prices will hold.”

Shanghai shares had sank 2.61 percent by the break Monday. The index plunged more than 16 percent from Monday to Wednesday last week before bouncing 10 percent in the next two sessions.

The dollar was mostly stronger against other Asia-Pacific currencies.

It rose to Sg$1.4130 from Sg$1.4027 on Friday, to 46.78 Philippine pesos from 46.64 pesos, and to 1,182.89 South Korean won from 1,175.90 won.

It also gained to Tw$32.55 from Tw$32.28, to 35.89 Thai baht from 35.85 baht and to 66.32 Indian rupees from 66.08 rupees, while it declined to 14,029 Indonesian rupiah from 14,038 rupiah.

The Australian dollar eased to 71.54 US cents from 71.68 cents, while the Chinese yuan fetched 18.99 yen against 18.93 yen.


marketwatch: The dollar trimmed its gains against the euro and yen Wednesday after New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said a September rate hike looks “less compelling” than it was a few weeks ago.

Dudley, a voting member of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee, made the remarks during a news conference about economic growth in his district.

The dollar moved off a session high reached after a reading on durable-goods orders in July showed an unexpectedly large increase, which helped support the dollar. But it remained on track to rise for a second session against its main rivals.

The WSJ dollar index BUXX, +0.73% a broad measure of the dollar’s strength, was up 0.6% to 87.85, on track to rise for a second consecutive session.

Chinese stocks edged lower Wednesday during the Asia trading session, but a decision by Chinese policy makers to pump 140 billion yuan into the financial system calmed nervous markets and pushed the dollar higher overnight.

The U.S. dollar has been particularly sensitive to market turmoil in China over the past week, as investors debate whether trouble in the world’s second-largest economy might prevent the Federal Reserve from raising the fed-funds rate, its benchmark interest rate, in September.

The dollar is trading more like a risk currency than a safe haven,” said Matt Weller, senior technical analyst at Forex.com.

Strong U.S. economic data released this week has helped revive investors’ expectations for a September rate increase.

“The expectations are that September does remain a candidate for a Fed rate increase,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade.

Thursday’s session features a revision to second-quarter gross domestic product, which investors will be watching closely for any sign that growth was stronger than initially expected earlier this year. Investors will be closely monitoring the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., later this week.

The euro EURUSD, -1.1895% is down 1.1% to $1.1398 Wednesday. The currency began sliding early in the European trading day after a pair of policy makers from the European Central Bank emphasized that the central bank is ready to expand its program of quantitative easing, if needed. The shared currency has fallen 0.1% against the dollar since the beginning of the week.

Against the Japanese yen USDJPY, +0.46% the dollar gained nearly 0.4% to trade at ¥119.10. The British pound GBPUSD, -1.3323% shed 0.7% to $1.5573.

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pagi ini, Senin (24/8/2015) melanjutkan pelemahannya, setelah akhir pekan anjlok.

Pada hari ini, indeks dolar dari data Bloomberg, dibuka melemah 0,13%  ke 94,889.  Pada Jumat (21/8/2015) indeks dolar AS ditutup anjlok 1,01% ke 95,008.

US Dollar Index Spot Rate pada pk. 06:35 WIB melemah 0,15% ke 94,87, dan bergerak di kisaran 94,747—94,903.

Dikemukakan dalam enam bulan terakhir perdagangan, keputusan Fed Rate menjadi sentimen utama dari pergerakan dolar.

Fed telah menyatakan akan menaikkan suku bunganya pada tahun ini, namun tidak kunjung menjelaskan kapan waktunya.

Sementara itu terjadi gejolak mata uang di kawasan emerging market, akibat devaluasi yuan, yang diperkirakan akan mempengaruhi putusan Fed.

`”Berhati-hati dengan langkah dolar, terutama jika dikaitkan dengan Fed, ” kata Ellen Zentner, Kepala Ekonom Morgan Stanley seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Senin (24/8/2015).


Posisi indeks dolar AS


Pk.06:35 WIB

(24 Juli)



24 Juli




21 Juli











Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015

Tokyo, Aug 20, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar was under pressure against the yen and euro in Asia Thursday after surprisingly bearish minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting dampened hopes for an imminent interest rate hike.

In Tokyo, the dollar bought 124.04 yen, up from 123.89 yen in New York, but well down from 124.32 yen in Asian trading on Wednesday before the minutes’ release.

The euro ticked up to $1.1124 and 137.98 yen, from $1.1121 and 137.78 yen in US trade, winning support from news that European finance ministers formally approved Greece’s 86 billion euro bailout.

The dollar took a hit in New York after the US central bank dampened expectations for a rate hike that some had thought could come as early as September.

While the Fed said the time for a hike was “approaching,” it singled out a slowdown in China’s economy as a red flag for US growth.

Those concerns have been heightened since the last Fed meeting in July, before China unexpectedly devalued its currency last week in a move seen as designed to boost slowing exports.

“While the Fed is looking less likely to move in September, everybody is really worried that China is slowing down faster than what official figures are telling you,” Evan Lucas, at IG Markets in Melbourne, told Bloomberg News.

Meanwhile, finance ministers in the 19-country eurozone gave the all-clear after the new bailout was approved by European parliaments, including the Bundestag of Germany, Greece’s effective paymaster.

The long-debated bailout accord goes far beyond economic management to include an extensive overhaul of Greece’s health and social welfare systems, plus its business practices and public administration.

The dollar was mixed against other Asia-Pacific currencies.

It strengthened to 46.34 Philippine pesos from 46.27 pesos on Wednesday, to 1,185.17 South Korean won from 1,183.54 won, and to 13,845 Indonesian rupiah from 13,838 rupiah.

The greenback slipped to Sg$1.4026 from Sg$1.4035, to 65.19 Indian rupees from 65.24 rupees, and to Tw$32.47 from Tw$32.49.

The Thai baht was stronger at 35.54 against the dollar from 35.62 a day earlier. The currency slumped on Tuesday to a fresh six-year low of 35.64 in the wake of Bangkok’s deadly bombing, which threatened to damage Thailand’s crucial tourism industry.

The Australian dollar edged up to 73.45 US cents from 73.33 US cents, while the Chinese yuan fetched 19.36 yen from 19.41 yen.

… per tgl 11 Agustus 2015, ternyata China mendevaluasi Yuan 1.9% aza, reaksi tren indeks Dolar amrik MALAH TURUN lho :

postYUANdeval_usdINDEX 110815

… per tgl 10 Agustus 2015, kondisi pasar semakin PASRAH (walo bukan nyerah sama sekali) soal kenaekan suku bunga THE FED FUND pada SEPTEMBER 2015, sbb:

However, the U.S. is a closed economy, mostly driven by domestic factors. Exports amount to less than 15 percent (see the chart below). It means that although a rising dollar may negatively affect the exporters, the net effect for the economy will be positive.

What about the impact of a rising U.S. dollar on the stock market? Theoretically, the stock market should reflect the real economy. However the U.S. stock indices include more companies with revenues coming from foreign markets as a percentage than the aggregate economy. Foreign sales account for 30-40 percent of total S&P 500 sales, with more than half of the companies in the index receiving more than 15 percent of their revenues abroad. On the other hand, a similarly big percentage of listed companies’ expenses (raw materials, intermediate goods, labor costs) come from abroad. This is probably why since the late 1970s the stock market has performed twice as well during dollar bull markets than during dollar bear markets. The reason is simple: the strong economy supports both: the currency and equities.

EKSPOR amrik perGDP 2015

per tgl 31 Juli 2015, kondisi strong dollar maseh dalam tren bullish / naek … namun keATI-ATIan the Fed tlah menghambat laju dollar index … rem-rem ekonomi global tlah menghalangi juga laju akselerasi strong dollar : perlambatan laju ekonomi global (gdp growth), harga komoditas yang rendah, ekonomi lokomotif global (amrik, china) yang melambat … secara historikal, indeks dolar periode 2001-2003 pernah mencapai titik 120-an, saat bubble dot.com burst, namun berdampak juga pada kondisi ekonomi amrik sendiri yang merosot … THE FED WATCH-OUT OF YOUR OWN DECISION TO HIKE RATE WITHOUT CONSULTING TO OTHER MULTILATERAL INSTITUTION, such as IMF, ECB, JAPAN CB, WORLD BANK, etc … I’ll enjoy myself and my investment portfolios (widely, wisely) :

dollar index 020815_2001_2015_120v97

strong dollar index till 2015 jul

… Gubernur Bank Indonesia celoteh soal SUPER DOLLAR amrik … well, GA ADA TUH ISTILAH SUPER CURRENCY apa pun … TIDAK ADA DI DUNIA INI YANG PENGEN MATA UANGNYA KUAT BANGET … karena efek LANGSUNGnya : EKSPOR NEGARA TERSEBUT LANGSUNG ANJLOK … data telah TERSEDIA LUAS bahwa kaitan PENGUATAN KURS MATA UANG dan PENURUNAN EKSPOR negara tersebut … jadi JANGAN TERBUAI CELOTEHAN TERSEBUT, walo beliau itu PUNYA DATA, INFO, N KEKUASAAN MONETER yang KUAT … gw mah yakin sekali EKUILIBRIUM MASEH YANG PALING FUNDAMENTAL TERJADI (walo dalam jangka pendek bisa terjadi penguatan atawa pelemahan mata uang): yaitu FLUKTUASI antara KEKUATAN n KELEMAHAN mata uang … namun disayangkan METODE PENGELOLAAN MATA UANG RUPIAH MASEH PRIMITIF, kurang sekale menggunakan teori2 moneterian yang lebe digunakan oleh negara-negara maju n paling berkembang … well, liat aza lah 🙂

Jakarta detik -Keperkasaan nilai tukar dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) seolah tak terbendung. Ada banyak faktor yang menyebabkan penguatan mata uang Paman Sam.

Menurut Sub Manager Group of Economy Risk and Financial System Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS), Dienda Siti Rufaedah, mata uang di negara maju masih bisa bertahan terhadap penguatan dolar AS.

Berbeda dengan kinerja mata uang negara maju, mayoritas mata uang negara berkembang masih menunjukkan pelemahan terhadap dolar AS, termasuk juga rupiah.

“Rubel menjadi mata uang yang menunjukkan performa terburuk di bulan Juni 2015 dengan melemah sebesar 5,59% dan ditutup pada level 55,27 per dolar AS,” katanya dalam Laporan Perekonomian dan Perbankan LPS bulan Juli, Kamis (6/8/2015).

Tekanan terhadap mata uang rubel didorong oleh anjloknya pasar saham di China menyusul jatuhnya harga minyak. China adalah salah satu konsumen komoditas terbesar dunia sehingga memicu kecemasan melemahnya permintaan global.

Namun bank sentral Rusia menyatakan akan secara aktif melakukan intervensi di pasar, untuk menyokong rubel dari penurunan harga minyak serta guncangan eksternal lainnya.

Di akhir 2015, mata uang rubel diproyeksikan mampu menguat sebesar 6,55% ke level 56,76 per dolar AS.

Sementara meningkatnya permintaan valas untuk pembayaran utang dan dividen di triwulan II-2015 memberikan tekanan terhadap mata uang rupiah.

“Di sisi lain, keputusan Bank Indonesia (BI) untuk mempertahankan BI rate di level 7,5% dinilai mampu menjadi sentimen positif bagi pergerakan rupiah,” ujarnya.

Rupiah tercatat mengalami pelemahan terbatas sebesar 0,87% ke level Rp 13.339 per dolar AS di akhir Juli. Prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang masih menunjukkan perlambatan berpotensi kembali menekan kinerja rupiah.



Did the Fed Kill the Long Dollar Trade? N-O

Taking a look at the price action of the US dollar after the FOMC rate decision, there’s no question that the Fed disappointed FX traders. Expectations were high going into the monetary policy announcement and unfortunately for dollar bulls hoping for a sharp upside breakout, Janet Yellen failed to deliver. Investors were hoping for a clear road map for liftoff but she did not even mention that the chance of a September rate hike has strengthened. In response, traders took the dollar lower against all of the major currencies. While the market was disappointed by the Fed, in no way shape or form do we believe that the long dollar trade is dead. In fact our conviction about the dollar rising was strengthened by Yellen’s comments. From the FOMC statement and forecast, we know that the majority of policymakers expect rates to rise this year with a larger number looking for two quarter-point rate hikes in 2015. While Yellen said no decision has been made on the timing for liftoff, she admitted that there is enough data to justify a rate increase. More importantly, she went out of her way to downplay the importance of the first hike. She describes the focus on the first 25bp move as overstated because the Fed will raise rates gradually and policy will remain accommodative. Instead, Yellen said the focus should be on the entire rate path, which is not as aggressive. However, the bottom line is that U.S. rates are rising this year and if the labor market continues to improve and inflation ticks higher we could even see two 25bp rate hikes. In an environment where the RBA, RBNZ and ECB are either easing or talking about doing so, the dollar will remain attractive. Therefore we have used the latest pullback as an opportunity to reload some of our long dollar positions because the long dollar trade is not dead.

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pada perdagangan Kamis (18/6/2015) pagi justru melempem setelah Bank Sentral AS memberikan sinyal pelonggaran kebijakan moneter secara bertahap.

Pada perdagangan Kamis, Indeks  dolar AS dibuka pada level 94,218. Level tertinggi mencapai 94,242 dengan level terendah 94,102. Sehari sebelumnya, indeks dolar AS juga merah akibat turun 0,74% ke level 94,296 dan bertahan pada level 94 sejak 10 Juni 2015.

Indeks dolar AS pada pukul 07:05 WIB melemah 0,152 poin ke level 94,141 dari penutupan sehari sebelumnya 94,296.

“Pesan dari The Fed adalah ekonomi AS lebih lemah dari harapan pada 2015. Tapi peningkatan suku bunga secara bertahap masih dimungkinkan pada akhir tahun ini dan perekonomian dapat bertahan,” ungkap Head of Investment Markets Research Perpetual Ltd. di Sidney Matthew Sherwood seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Kamis (18/6/2015).

NEW YORK – Kurs dolar AS melemah terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama lainnya karena data ekonomi yang keluar dari negara itu secara keseluruhan negatif.

Seperti dilansir Reuters, Selasa (16/6/2015), Federal Reserve AS pada Senin melaporkan bahwa produksi industri AS turun 0,2 persen pada Mei setelah jatuh 0,5 persen pada bulan sebelumnya, gagal memenuhi konsensus pasar untuk kenaikan 0,2 persen, lapor Xinhua.

Sementara itu, Survei Manufaktur Empire State (Negara Bagian New York) Juni 2015 yang dirilis Senin menunjukkan bahwa kondisi bisnis sedikit memburuk untuk produsen New York. Indeks kondisi bisnis umum turun lima poin menjadi -2,0, angka negatif kedua dalam tiga bulan terakhir.

Indeks dolar, yang mengukur greenback terhadap enam mata uang utama lainnya, turun 0,23 persen menjadi 94,754 pada akhir perdagangan.

Investor juga terus mengawasi krisis utang Yunani. Pembicaraan dua hari di Brussel antara perwakilan pemerintah Yunani dan kreditor atas prasyarat untuk pencairan bantuan lebih lanjut untuk Yunani berakhir kurang dari satu jam pada Minggu.

Pada akhir perdagangan di New York, euro naik menjadi 1,1292 dolar dari 1,1259 dolar di sesi sebelumnya, dan pound Inggris naik menjadi 1,5612 dolar dari 1,5552 dolar di sesi sebelumnya. Dolar Australia naik ke 0,7765 dolar dari 0,7735 dolar.

Dolar AS dibeli 123,37 yen Jepang, lebih rendah dari 123,46 yen pada sesi sebelumnya. Dolar AS naik tipis ke 0,9285 franc Swiss dari 0,9283 franc Swiss, dan menurun menjadi 1,2317 dolar Kanada dari 1,2325 dolar Kanada.


Tokyo, June 1, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar was steady Monday despite a first-quarter contraction in the US economy as investors look for clues to a pickup that would justify an interest rate rise this year.

In Tokyo afternoon trading, the greenback bought 124.08 yen, slightly down from 124.12 yen in New York on Friday, and also off the 12-year high of 124.46 yen touched last week.

Investors are now waiting for US jobs data for a clue about the state of the world’s top economy, after revised data Friday showed it contracted 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year.

“Traders will look at this week’s data with a little bit of caution, but the main thing is, if the euro is losing ground, naturally you find the US dollar tends to benefit from that,” Stan Shamu, a markets strategist IG Ltd., told Bloomberg News.

“Traders will probably stay long heading into payrolls data.”

The euro weakened to $1.0960 and 135.94 yen, from $1.0991 and 136.42 yen in New York, as Greece’s bailout talks drag on with the cash-strapped country facing a debt repayment deadline on June 5.

Time is running out for Greece to reach a deal with its international creditors to unlock 7.2. billion euros in bailout cash. There are fears that if it defaults the country could end up leaving the eurozone.

Athens’ debt crisis dominated a three-day meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers in Germany, where Greece and its European partners came under pressure to end a crisis that has rattled the global economy.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty on that front and traders just aren’t willing to take the risk,” Shamu said, referring to a Greek bailout deal.

“Without any positive rhetoric suggesting they are closer to a deal, it makes it really hard for traders to find any conditions” that justify being long on the euro.

The dollar was mixed against other Asia-Pacific currencies.

It weakened to 63.63 Indian rupees from 63.75 rupees, to 13,208.00 Indonesian rupiah from 13,216.00 rupiah, to 33.66 Thai baht from 33.69 baht, and to 44.53 Philippine pesos from 44.56 pesos.

The greenback rose to 1,109.14 South Korean won from 1,107.05 won, to Sg$1.3494 from Sg$1.3468, and to Tw$30.75 from Tw$30.65.

The Australian dollar slipped to 76.60 US cents from 76.69 cents while the Chinese yuan bought 20.01 yen, against 19.94 yen.

New York, May 12, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar fell Tuesday as the market viewed recent lackluster US economic data as delaying the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise near-zero interest rates.

Last Friday’s April jobs report was solid but showed no sign of rising wages, an indicator that Fed Chair Janet Yellen has focused on for signs of labor market tightening.

Manufacturing has been stuck in the doldrums and the trade deficit jumped to a six-year high in March, likely pushing the economy into contraction in the first quarter. The first estimate had put gross domestic product growth at a weak 0.2 percent annual rate.

“The recent run of softish US data has left the dollar with a substantially weakened narrative on the Fed’s course to tightening,” XE.com said in a research note.

The Fed had repeatedly suggested the rate liftoff could come around mid-2015, but the data generally has pushed back expectations to at least September.

“We expect the greenback to eventually resume its strengthening trend as US economic data improve and the Fed moves closer to normalizing the stance of monetary policy,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.

Investors will be looking to see if the second quarter is showing signs of life in Wednesday’s retail sales report for April, a key indicator of consumer spending.

The euro, meanwhile, benefited from struggling Greece’s debt payment of 750 million euros to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, analysts said.

“The news added to the euro’s buoyant tone, even if Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy and will likely have to default on its debts if a new loan deal is not reached very soon,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange.
<pre> 2100 GMT Tuesday Monday
EUR/USD 1.1213 1.1154
EUR/JPY 134.44 133.97
EUR/CHF 1.0420 1.0421
EUR/GBP 0.7156 0.7157
USD/JPY 119.90 120.11
USD/CHF 0.9293 0.9343
GBP/USD 1.5669 1.5586

per tgl 06 Mei 2015, pergerakan dollar index sbb:

dollar index @94_060515

JAKARTA— Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pagi ini, Selasa (20/1/2015) bergerak menguat, dan lagi-lagi mencetak level tertinggi baru sepanjang lima tahun terakhir.
strong$ 200115 10yr the highest
Indeks dolar AS seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, pada perdagangan hari, Selasa (20/1/2015) dibuka naik 0,17% ke 92,677.

Indeks dolar AS seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, pada penutupan perdagangan Senin (19/1/2015) atau Selasa WIB (20/1/2015) dini hari bergerak stagnan  ke 92,52

US Dollar Index Spot Rate pada pk. 07:56 WIB  jadi menguat 0,18% ke 92,69, dan bergerak di kisaran 92,665—92,694.

Posisi indeks dolar AS

Pk.07:56 WIB

(20 Januari)




(20 Januari)



19  Januari



Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015



Sabtu, 19/12/2009 16:48 WIB

Dolar AS sentuh level tertinggi dalam 3 bulan

oleh : M. Yunan Hilmi

NEW YORK (Bloomberg): Dolar AS menyentuh level tertinggi dalam 3 bulan terhadap mata uang negara partner dagang AS terdorong oleh pernyataan Federal Reserve yang akan mempertahankan suku bunga pada posisi terendah.

Euro melemah atas pound setelah rating kredit Yunani dipangkas oleh Standard & Poor’s dan European Central Bank menaikkan estimasi kerugian negara-negara pengguna euro sebesar 13%. Dolar AS mencatatkan kenaikan mingguan terbesar sejak Juni, sebelum laporan mengenai ekonomi pekan depan yang diperkirakan ada kenaikan di sektor produk awet pakai.

“Outlook yang positif dari AS, dari data Fed yang lebih baik, semakin memberi tekanan euro-dolar AS makin rendah,” kata Emma Lawson, analis valuta Morgan Stanley di London.

Dollar Index, melacak pergerakan greenback atas euro, yen, pound, franc, dolar Kanada, dan krona Swedia naik 1,5% menjadi 77,721 pekan ini, dari 76,573 pada 11 Desember. Indeks menyentuh 78,141 kemarin, level tertinggi sejak 4 September.

Indeks dolar AS mengalami apresiasi 4,8% dari level terendah tahun ini yang tercapai pada 26 November setelah kinerja pemerintah memperlihatkan tingkat pengangguran di AS turun bulan lalu menjadi 10%. Selain itu, penjualan sektor ritel lebih besar dari proyeksi.

“Dengan data perekonomian yang lebih baik dan outlook lebih terang, dolar AS berhenti menjadi mata uang pilihan pembiayaan pada 2009,” kata Lawson.

Dolar AS menguat sebesar 1,9% menjadi US$1,4338 per euro, dari US$1,4615 pekan lalu. Mata uang ini menguat kemarin di atas US$1,43 untuk pertama kali sejak 4 September. Yen menguat 0,4% menjadi 129,75 per euro, dari 130,24. Dolar AS menguat atas yen sebesar 1,6% menjadi 90,94 dari 89,10.

Dolar Australia mencatat penurunan terbesar pekan ini terhadap dolar AS di antara mata uang utama yang dilacak oleh Bloomberg, melemah 2,5% menjadi US$0,8902.

Deputi Gubernur Reserve Bank Ric Battellino membantah ekspektasi suku bunga kembali naik dengan mengatakan kebijakan moneter kembali ke tahapan normal. Bank sentral menaikkan suku bunga tiga kali berturut-turut mulai Oktober.

Yen melemah terhadap dolar AS pekan ini setelah Bank of Japan mengatakan tidak menoleransi penurunan harga konsumen sehingga memicu spekulasi bank sentral akan mempertahankan target suku bunga pada level hampir 0%.(yn)



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