… gw kuciwa karna tokoh sekaliber petinggi negara banyak yang BERKOMENTAR BAHWA THE FED (Federal Reserve, sejenis bank sentral) di amrik KELIRU MEMPERTAHANKAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA FFR (Federal Fund Rate)
… ALASANNYA SERAGAM DENGAN REAKSI AWAL PASAR: the Fed terus-terusan menimbulkan KETIDAKPASTIAN di dalam pasar n ekonomi global
… reaksi awal pasar, terutama di amrik, emang LANGSUNG AMBLES
… pertanyaan gw: Petinggi n pasar yang bereaksi NEGATIF atas KEPUTUSAN THE FED itu sebenarnya mempunyai alasan utama apa?
… dugaan nakal gw: MEREKA TERLALU BERSEMANGAT (euforia) BERJUD1 BAHWA the Fed AKAN MENAEKKAN SUKU BUNGA FFR pada SEPTEMBER 2015, bahkan TARUHANNYA AMAT BESAR DENGAN CARA MENGGELAR n MENGGELONTORken DANA KELUAR NEGARA BERKEMBANG (capital outflow from the emerging markets)
… MEREKA GIGIT JAR1, RUG1 gede sekale karena TEBAKAN n JUDI serta EUFORIA mereka KELIRU abis
… gw mah hepi dengan ekspektasi gw yang menggunakan kalkulasi sederhana, yaitu PENDAPAT EKONOM GLOBAL SOAL INFLASI di amrik yang MASEH DI BAWAH 2% p.a. : posting2 gw soal PENUNDAAN RATE HIKE s/d 2016
… inflasi 2% p.a. menjadi salah SATU POIN ALASAN KENAEKAN THE FED FUND RATE untuk terpenuhi; jika tidak terpenuhi maka AMAT SULIT THE FED MEMAKSAken KEPUTUSAN YANG TIDAK MONETERISTIK kepada ekonomi amrik n pasar finansial global
… keputusan moneteristik ini telah DIUJI n TERUJI berdasarkan pengalaman bank sentral amrik sekira 4 dekade-8 dekade, sejak pendirian the federal reserve n secara resmi the fed memaenkan peran pengendali moneter di amrik
… tentu bukan tanpa ERROR (errorless) seh, karna kebijakan the Fed apa pun SELALU MENDAPATKAN PUJIAN n KECAMAN dari pihak di luar bank sentral amrik, baek dari pihak bank sentral negara laen (amat jarang), mau pun oleh para pemegang kebijakan negara atau pihak regulator laennya
… jadi gw TIDAK MENANG TARUHAN, gw BUKAN PERAMAL : gw cuma seorang TRADER n INVESTOR saham sederhana berilmu BERLABA
… soal KETIDAKPASTIAN YANG DIJADIken ALASAN KEKUCIWAAN SEBAGIAN PENGAMAT: sebenarnya sebuah KEBIASAAN … karna pada setiap keputusan THE FED pasti ada reaksi anti dan pro … PASAR TERBIASA UNTUK SELALU MENANG (zero loss market) namun FAKTANYA PASAR SELALU SALAH n MENIMBULKAN KETIDAKPASTIAN (no errorless market) … ibarat ROBOT: pergerakan n antisipasi pasar BISA KAKU SATU ARAH n TIDAK MAMPU LUWES MENGHADAPI FAKTA YANG TIDAK SESUAI EKSPEKTASI … malah ROBOT ini BERBEDA: yaitu pergerakan robot pasar JUSTRU MENIMBULKAN KETIDAKPASTIAN BARU, n SELALU MELAHIRKAN KETIDAKPASTIAN lage, sehingga PANTAS JIKA DISEBUT sebagai ROBOT KETIDAKPASTIAN!
… jadi KETIDAKPASTIAN EKONOMI GLOBAL bukan KARNA KEPUTUSAN THE FED yang telah MONETERISTIK, melaenkan karena PASAR YANG SELALU BERGEJOLAK n PENUH KETIDAKPASTIAN
… itu sebabnya sebagai investor + trader, gw MEMPUNYAI 11 BUTIR ILMU MAEN SAHAM SEDERHANA BERLABa guna MENGANTISIPASI GEJOLAK PASAR : tujuan utama maen saham : BERLABA
… bwat gw the fed mo memutusken APA PUN, termasuk membubarkan diri sebagai bank sentral amrik pun, gw dah SIAP MENGANTISIPASI GEJOLAK, dengan memanfaatkan 11 butir ilmu tersebut n dengan KESADARAN BAHWA SETIAP HARI ADA GEJOLAK (aer laut, aer sungai, aer danau, cairan di kawah, sebagai analoginya) di PASAR… justru GEJOLAK PASAR ITU MEMBERI gw MAKAN setiap hari LAH 🙂
… prinsip utama maen saham berlaba: BELI RENDAH, JUAL TINGGI … TANPA GEJOLAK tidak MUNGKIN ADA SELISIH HARGa; misal, pagi hari gw beli saham tlkm @2700, lalu siang hari order gw full matched/done, lalu pasang order jual semua unit @2800, ekh, ternyata beberapa menit kemudian order tersebut full matched/done … nah, fakta SEPERTI INI DAH SERING gw ALAMI, n SELALU TERJADI SETIAP HARI sejak 27 April 2009, setelah sebulan lebe MEMANTAU ISU saham bumi resources
… begitu lah, sejarah maen saham ala warteg saham gw 🙂
the guardian: An uneasy calm prevails in financial markets over the first increase in US interest rates in almost a decade, which is widely expected later this month, according to a leading group of central bankers.The restrained reaction, especially from emerging markets, to signals from the USFederal Reserve that rates will start to rise have been encouraging, the quarterly update from the Switzerland-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said. However, it said it expected volatility to return.“Calm has reigned over financial markets, but it has been an uneasy calm,” said Claudio Borio, the head of the BIS monetary and economic department.With interest rates in many parts of the world testing “the boundaries of the unthinkable day after day”, Borio said it was not surprising how sensitive markets remained to the actions of major central banks.“There is a clear tension between the markets’ behaviour and underlying economic conditions,” Borio said. “At some point, it will have to be resolved. Markets can remain calm for much longer than we think. Until they no longer can.”The report also analysed recent investment, lending flows and debt issuance trends.
… SELL ON NEW$ @US$, buy on rumour$ :
JAKARTA okezone – Kenaikan suku bunga the Fed cukup menjadi perhatian internasional saat ini. Pasalnya, banyak negara yang khawatir terhadap dampak capital outflow yang diberikan jika the Fed menaikkan tingkat suku bunganya.
Namun, Ekonom Mandiri Sekuritas Leo Putera Rinaldy menilai, apa yang terjadi saat ini dalam perekonomian AS tidak sama dengan apa yang dialami pada dua periode sebelumnya, yaitu tahun 1999 dan tahun 2008.
“Kenaikan tahun depan Fed sangat berbeda. Tahun 2004 itu lam bulan Juni, itu hingga 12 bulan setelahnya bisa sampai 200 basis poin, tahun 1999 juga naik 150-200 basis poin. Tahun 2016 justru jauh lebih kecil, sifatnya bertahap,” ujar Leo pada pewarta.
Menurut Leo, apabila the Fed menaikkan tingkat suku bunganya secara bertahap, maka rupiah akan dapat bertahan pada level Rp14.300. Namun prediksi ini akan dapat berubah drastis jika the Fed menaikkan suku bunga secara impresif.
“Kalau kita asumsikan suku bunga the Fed tahun depan naik 50 hingga 70 basis poin secara gradual, rupiah akan melemah 1,6 hingga 1,9 persen, Tahun depan bisa mencapai rata-rata Rp 14.300,” imbuh Leo.
Sekedar informasi, the Fed berencana akan menaikkan tingkat suku bunga secara bertahap pada tahun 2016 mendatang. Kenaikan tingkat suku bunga the Fed pun diperkirakan akan mencapai 100 basis point hingga akhir tahun 2016 mendatang menjadi 1,25 persen.
TEMPO.CO, Washington – Bank sentral Amerika Serikat atau The Fed akhirnya menaikkan suku bunga acuannya untuk pertama kalinya sejak hampir satu dekade yang lalu. Komite pengatur kebijakan The Fed menaikkan kisaran suku bunga acuannya sebesar seperempat poin menjadi 0,25-0,5 persen pada Rabu siang waktu setempat atau Kamis, dini hari, 17 Desember 2015.
“Komite menilai bahwa terdapat peningkatan yang cukup besar dalam kondisi pasar tenaga kerja di tahun ini. Kondisi tersebut meyakinkan kami bahwa inflasi akan meningkat menjadi dua persen dalam jangka waktu menengah,” tulis The Fed dalam pernyataan resminya yang dikutip dari Reuters.
The Fed menjelaskan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga kali ini merupakan sebuah awal di mana mereka akan menerapkan siklus pengetatan secara bertahap. Selain itu, The Fed juga memutuskan untuk menerapkan premi dalam memonitor inflasi yang masih terperosok di bawah target.
“Mengingat inflasi saat ini berada di bawah dua persen, Komite akan sangat berhati-hati dalam memantau kemajuan terhadap target inflasi. Komite berharap, kondisi ekonomi saat ini akan berkembang dengan tujuan untuk menjamin peningkatan bertahap dalam suku bunga acuan The Fed,” kata The Fed menambahkan.
Proyeksi ekonomi yang baru dari pembuat kebijakan The Fed juga tidak berubah secara drastis sejak September 2015 di mana tingkat pengangguran diperkirakan menurun sebanyak 4,7 persen dan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat menjadi 2,4 persen pada 2016 mendatang.
Pernyataan dan janji The Fed akan siklus yang bertahap tersebut menunjukkan sebuah kesepakatan antara mereka yang telah siap untuk menaikkan suku bunga setiap bulannya dengan mereka yang masih merasa bahwa kondisi ekonomi masih penuh resiko.
REUTERS | ANGELINA ANJAR SAWITRI
ID: Menurut analis Investa Saran Mandiri Kiswoyo Adi Joe, pasar akan sepenuhnya fokus pada keputusan FOMC meeting pekan ini. Pasar berharap The Fed tidak menunda-nunda terus penaikan FFR.
“Kalau The Fed menaikkan FFR, walaupun hanya 0,1%, pasar akan bullish. Sebab, pasar menunggu terlalu lama. Setidaknya, The Fed bisa memberikan kepastian bahwa FFR akan naik pada Januari 2016,” ucap dia.
Kiswoyo mengemukakan, skenario serupa pernah diterapkan Janet Yellen kala memutuskan untuk mengurangi (tapering off) stimulus moneter (quantitativeeasing/QE) dalam pembelian obligasi jangka panjang menjadi US$ 75 miliar dari sebelumnya US$ 85 miliar per bulan. Saat itu, The Fed memberikan kepastian untuk melakukan tapering off sebulan sebelum kebijakan itu diimplementasikan.
“Saat ini The Fed masih menanti satu data ekonomi lagi, yakni inflasi yang dianggap belum memenuhi target 2%,” ujar dia.
Kiswoyo menjelaskan, jika The Fed belum juga memberikan kepastian dalam pertemuan FMOC pekan ini, IHSG bisa mampu turun menjebol level 4.300 dan selanjutnya menguji level 4.000. “Sentimen kuat yang mampu menyokong isu FFR adalah penurunan BI rate,” kata dia.
Dia memprediksi pekan ini IHSG berada pada kisaran support 4.400 dan resistance 4.500, dengan didahului pergerakan IHSG yang sideways pada perdagangan awal pekan menjelang pertemuan FOMC.
“Ini juga akan menentukan pergerakan IHSG sampai akhir tahun. Kalau tidak ada kepastian, Mungkin IHSG akan berada di level 4.500. Sebaliknya, jika ada kepastian dari The Fed, IHSG bisa menuju level 4.700,” tandas dia.
Secara terpisah, analis Satrio Utomo mengemukakan, sentimen FFR seharusnya tidak memicu kekhawatiran yang berlebihan di kalangan pelaku pasar. Ini menilik pada skenario tapering off yang sebelumnya dilakukan The Fed. Hanya saja, menurut Satrio, pasar saat ini cukup tegang menanti hasil FOMC meeting. Kondisi itu memicu spekulasi yang cukup kuat, sehingga pasar akan volatile.
“Pemodal asing bakal melepas posisi, apalagi harga komoditas melemah. Jadi, memang tekanan masih cukup besar dan terus berlanjut,” ujar dia.
Satrio Utomo memperkirakan pekan ini IHSG bergerak pada level support 4.300-4.350 dan resistance 4.450. “Harapannya,bottom level IHSG sudah tercipta sebelum FOMC meeting berlangsung,” tutur dia.
Satrio menambahkan, sebenarnya pasar telah imun terhadap isu FFR. Namun, kondisi berbalik setelah harga minyak dunia kembali terperosok menjadi US$ 39 per barel dari sebelumnya US$ 42 per barel. Bahkan, ke depan, harga minyak diprediksi terus turun menyentuh level US$ 30 per barel. (az/gor)
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fortune: The Fed
Banking on Rising Rates
Forecasting interest rates is a dangerous game. Nevertheless, every sign suggests that, this time, the Federal Reserve really, really, really means it and will start raising rates. Surprisingly strong wage and jobs growth are just the latest signs that the Fed needs to take action to tamp down inflation.
Ready to Climb: After years at historically low levels, the Federal funds rate seems destined to rise.
Bank stocks should benefit. Traditional lenders profit on the difference between the cost at which they borrow money and the higher rate at which they lend it out. When rates are low, that spread—known as the net interest margin—gets compressed. Higher interest rates should translate to wider net interest margins and thus bigger profits for U.S. banks. One way to cash in on this is with an ETF. A good choice is SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE -2.29% , which emphasizes mid-size players rather than the megabanks perpetually in regulators’ crosshairs.
Two stocks poised to prosper are Charles Schwab SCHW -4.48% and Capital One COF -2.55% . Schwab is known primarily as a discount brokerage, but its trading commissions actually represent only 14% of its revenue. The much bigger portion comes from Schwab’s bank—one of the nation’s largest, with $100 billion in assets—and its money-market funds, where brokerage and advisory clients park their cash. A more normal rate environment would probably triple the profitability of the money-market funds.
- SPDR S&P Bank ETF
- Charles Schwab
- Capital One
At first glance, Schwab’s shares seem pricey—a forward P/E of 25—but that’s actually a discount to its five-year average of 32. And analysts are projecting a 33% increase in profits next year. Margaret Vitrano, manager of the Clearbridge Large Cap Growth Fund, believes Schwab can sustain that success. “This is one of the stocks with the most leverage to the upside [when rates go up],” she says. “Plus, it’s a really good business.”
Capital One is modestly priced—at $77 a share, it has a P/E of 10—and offers a 2% dividend yield. Known for its credit cards, Capital One has been aggressively building its branch network and retail deposits. The wisdom of that will be apparent once rates start to rise, says Bill Nygren, manager of Oakmark Select. He thinks Capital One deserves a P/E closer to 15—which equates to $117 a share.
JAKARTA – Ekonomi global dipercaya akan memasuki babak baru setelah Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat mengubah tingkat suku bunga atau yang lebih dikenal The Fed Rate pada pertengahan Desember ini.
CEO dan CIO dari DoubleLine Fubds, Jeffrey Gundlach, memberi peringatan sederhana untuk manajer keuangan muda yang belum pernah melalui siklus kenaikan suku bunga dari Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) The Federal Reserve, yaitu ini ekonomi global akan masuki babak baru.
Di dalam investor webcast terbarunya, Gundlach, yang disebut Raja Utang mengatakan, dia melihat survei menunjukkan dua pertiga dari manajer keuangan sekarang belum melalui siklus kenaikan suku bunga.
“Saya yakin banyak orang tidak pernah melihat Fed menaikkan suku bunga,” kata Gundlach seperti dilansir Business Insider, Rabu (9/12/2015).
“Dan saya memiliki pesan sederhana untuk Anda: Ini adalah dunia yang berbeda ketika Fed menaikkan suku bunga,” tambah dia.
Saat ini, pasar tengah mengantisipasi kenaikan The Fed rate. Selama ini, The Fed rate dipatok mendekati 0 persen sejak Desember 2008 dan belum bergerak signifikan sejak Juni 2006.
Gundlach percaya, The Fed tidak menarik pelatuknya. Namun, The Fed tampaknya berpikir untuk memulai pengetatan kondisi keuangan.
Dalam presentasinya, Gundlach mengindikasikan keuangan yang sangat mengganggu yaitu obligasi sampah dan pengaruh pinjaman .
Gundlach juga mengatakan jika minyak mentah jatuh ke USD40 per barel, maka akan ada masalah besar di dunia. Nantinya, tekanan keuangan tidak hanya berasal dari minyak namun juga geopolitik.
Between June and September, when global markets were rocked by worries about China’s economy, slumping commodity prices and a surging dollar, issueances of bonds in emerging markets declined the most since the end of the financial crisis in 2009.
Across all markets, debt issuance dropped almost 80% compared with both the second quarter of this year and the third quarter of 2014.
“The financial vulnerabilities in emerging market economies have not gone away,” Borio said. “The stock of dollar-denominated debt, which has roughly doubled since early 2009 to over $3 tn, is still there.
“In fact, its value in domestic currency terms has grown in line with the US dollar’s appreciation, weighing on financial conditions and weakening balance sheets.“
JAKARTA– Bank Indonesia (BI) menyatakan kebijakan suku bunga acuan (BI rate) yang dijaga ketat di level 7,5% sejak awal tahun salah satu tujuannya yakni untuk menjaga agar tidak terjadi arus modal keluar (capital outflow).Deputi Gubernur Senior BI Mirza Adityaswara mengatakan, BI belum dapat menurunkan BI rate seperti yang dilakukan sebelumnya oleh Bank Sentral AS dan Bank Sentral Eropa, untuk memacu laju pertumbuhan ekonomi.”Karena yang dibutuhkan oleh negara ini adalah valas (valuta asing). Pendanaan untuk surat utang pemerintah itu 37 persen yang beli asing. Penting jaga dana yang masuk untuk biayai APBN. Kita harus jaga agar modal tidak keluar,” ujar Mirza dalam sebuah seminar, di Jakarta, Kamis.Menurut Mirza, saat ini, tidak mungkin negara ini bisa tumbuh tanpa ada bantuan modal dari luar negeri. Oleh karena itu, perlu arahan kebijakan agar Indonesia tidak terus bergantung terhadap modal asing.”Kalau terkait portofolio, kita harus besarkan dana pensiun, asuransi, dan reksa dana,” kata Mirza.Selain itu, lanjut Mirza, penanaman modal asing (PMA) yang masuk ke dalam negeri harus seimbang antara ekuitas dan pinjamannya. Ia menilai, banyak PMA yang masuk tapi masih bayar bunga ke luar negeri.”Kita harus undang PMA yang equity dan borrowing-nya seimbang. Jadi struktur permodalan PMA juga harus diperbaiki. Kita shift (geser) ketergantungaan terhadap modal dari luar negeri. Kebijakan-kebijakan harus ke arah sana,” ujar Mirza.Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia pada Selasa (26/11) lalu memutuskan untuk kembali mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga acuan ( BI Rate) sebesar 7,5% dengan suku bunga Deposit Facility 5,5% dan Lending Facility pada level 8%.
Kendati BI rate tetap, bank sentral memutuskan untuk menurunkan Giro Wajib Minimum (GWM) Primer dalam Rupiah, dari sebelumnya 8% menjadi 7,5% berlaku efektif sejak 1 Desember 2015.
“Kemarin kami melonggarkan kebijakan moneter dengan penurunan GWM, instrumen moneter yang juga banyak dilakukan bank sentral lain. Mereka gunakan itu, baru kemudian menurunkan suku bunga,” kata Mirza. (gor/ant)
JAKARTA – Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowardojo mencatat sudah dua tahun BI menunggu dan menduga akan adanya kenaikan fed fund rate. Akibatnya, kebijakan yang dibuat BI menjadi lebih rendah.”Kondisi dunia sedang penuh ketidakpastian khususnya karena The akan menaikan bunganya dan ini sudah dua tahun terakhir kira menunggu dan menduga akan ada kenaikan ini. Kalau seandainya kenaikan ini bisa segera diwujudkan akhir tahun ini, maka akan memberikan banyak kepastian,” ujar Agus di Bank Indonesia, Jakarta, Jumat (20/11/2015).Menurutnya, kondisi ketidakpastian Fed menaikan suku bunganya membuat banyak sekali dana-dana dari negara berkembang keluar dari negara berkembang, sehingga di negara berkembang selain mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melambat, akan mengalami tekanan capital reversal.”Hal itu banyak yang memberikan tekanan kepada transaksi modal dan finansial Indonesia di tahun 2015. Pada kuartal II dan III itu terjadi penurunan surplus sehingga overall balance kita terlihat negatif,” tuturnya.Meski begitu, Bank Indonesia memperkirakan adanya overall balance pada kuartal IV. Tercatat,adanya dana masuk dari pinjaman pemerintah dan lainnya yang dilakukan pada kuartal IV.
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM
marketwatch: Treasury yields declined Thursday, as fresh U.S. economic data were interpreted as solid enough to keep a December interest-rate hike on the table.The fall in yields comes a day after the Federal Reserve policy makers signaled Wednesday that they were confident enough in the economy to hike rates for the first time in nearly a decade.“Fed officials have telegraphed that barring an unforeseen situation, they will raise rates in December,” said Mike Materasso, co-chair of Franklin Templeton’s Fixed Income Policy Committee.
According to Materasso, the beginning of the hiking cycle will cause short-term interest rates to rise, while long-term interest rates will likely remain low on falling oil prices and declining inflation expectations. Treasury yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The trend Materasso describes is known as a flattening yield curve, meaning that the spread or yield differential between short- and long-term Treasurys tightens, which was evident in Treasury yield moves Thursday.
The yield on the two-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD02Y, -1.83% gained one basis point to 0.886%, according to Tradeweb. Short-term Treasurys tend to rise significantly when the market expects a rate increase, as they are more sensitive to changes in the Fed-funds rate.
But the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.12% fell 2.4 basis points to 2.245%, while the yield on the 30-year bond TMUBMUSD30Y, -1.23%lost 4.2 basis points to 3.001%. One basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point.
On Thursday morning, the Labor Department said the number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 271,000 in mid-November,offering more evidence the labor market has rebounded after a summer dip. But the monthly average actually rose to the highest level in eight weeks.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed some improvementafter being negative for two straight months.
In Europe, yields on eurozone government bonds continued to decline, as investorstracked news about raids in Brussels tied to last Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year German bond TMBMKDE-10Y, -4.37% known as the bund, fell 2.6 basis points to 0.480%, its lowest level since late October.
New York, Nov 12, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar slipped a little against the euro Thursday as expectations firmed on a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December.The Wall Street Journal said its poll of economists had found about 92 percent see a hike at the Fed’s December 15-16 policy meeting in the benchmark federal funds rate, held near zero since December 2008.In early October, before last week’s strong US jobs report, 65 percent of forecasters predicted a December lift-off, the newspaper said.Investors have also grown more confident in a December hike. The CME Group’s Fed futures watch tool put the probability of a December hike at 70 percent.”The dollar broke a little lower Thursday but bullish sentiment remained intact given markets’ elevated expectations for interest rates to rise in the US and fall in the eurozone as early as next month,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.The euro edged up to $1.081 around 2200 GMT from $1.0741 at the same time Wednesday.”Fed officials spoke today but remarks from the most important official, Chair Janet Yellen, were mum on policy specifics,” Manimbo said. “Comments from other Fed officials largely offset, with some ready to raise rates and some not.”
<pre> 2200 GMT Thursday Wednesday
EUR/USD 1.0814 1.0741
EUR/JPY 132.58 131.94
EUR/CHF 1.0815 1.0792
EUR/GBP 0.7099 0.7061
USD/JPY 122.60 122.84
USD/CHF 1.0001 1.0049
GBP/USD 1.5233 1.5212
After years of middling progress, some real change
ROUBINI ECONOMIC MONITOR: Donald Trump turned his rhetorical bazooka on Janet Yellen this week, accusing the Fed chair of being “highly political” and merely doing President Barack Obama’s bidding by declining to raise interest rates. In this as in so many things he says, Trump was issuing wisdom from his rear end, but the GOP candidate from clowntown did serve one useful purpose. He prompted us to ask yet again: What is Janet Yellen’s game?Yellen is also taking fire from the left—specifically Ralph Nader, who also urged her to raise rates to help the “savers of America.” Nader threw in an oddly sexist bit of advice, counseling Yellen to “sit down with your Nobel Prize-winning husband, economist George Akerlof, who is known to be consumer-sensitive.”
time.com: Is a real recovery finally here? That’s what the latest U.S. employment data appears to be telling us. Not only did payrolls come in dramatically higher than expected, workers finally got a bit more money in their pockets–wage growth, which had been hovering a little above 2 %, kicked up to 2.5%—a 6 year high. That’s modest by historical standards, particularly at this stage of a recovery. But it’s a shift in the right direction for the continued strength of an economy made up of 70% consumer spending.
It’s always dangerous to extrapolate any economic trend based on a single month of good data. But there’s reason to think that the global economy may soon surprise on the upside. Here’s why:
The Chinese economy appears to be stabilizing. The hundreds of billions of dollars worth of policy stimulus the Communist Party kicked in over the summer finally seems to be working; fourth quarter growth is picking up. Of course, China still has a big leap to make to shifting its economic model longer term, but having discussed this topic recently with a key US economic player in the know, I’m a little more bullish on that process than I had been.
For example, in some ways, the bad news this week about China throwing off 17% more carbon emissions than previously thought could been seen as an increase in political transparency (the Party never likes to publicize bad news) which is an important part of that process. Ditto the meeting between Xi Jinping and the leader of Taiwan.
Lower commodities prices are kicking in–while they hurt countries like Brazil, Nigeria, and many parts of the Middle East, they are good for China, the U.S. and Europe–on balance, that’s a net positive for the global economy.
Financial markets are calmer, as investors have priced in the effects of a likely Fed rate hike, which Yellen is now indicating could come by end of year, and the divergence in monetary policy in places like Japan and Europe, which are still doing quantitative easing and keeping rates low (the effects of fiscal austerity have diminished in Europe, which is another economic tailwind). That expected divergence had created volatility in global markets over the last few months, but now, it could help buffer markets that might have been hit harder had every major region been hiking rates at once, as was usually the case in the past.
The big remaining question—with manufacturing still weak in the US, how much can wages growth? The next two months of data will be key—if wages keep rising even without a hike in manufacturing jobs, we’ll know something important, new, and positive is really happening in the US economy.
If only things were as simple and binary (raise rates/don’t raise rates) as Trump and Nader make them seem. Very quietly, from her office in the Marriner Eccles building in downtown Washington, Yellen is acting out a very personal drama, one that reflects her entire professional career stretching back more than nearly four decades through academia to the San Francisco Fed to the White House Council of Economic Advisers. In doing so, she is taking the Federal Reserve yet again into uncharted territory, just as her predecessor Ben Bernanke did.
Yellen’s problem, basically, is this: Unemployment is statistically very low at about 5 percent, more than low enough to justify an increase in rates. In the past, as the labor market tightened (i.e. unemployment went down), wages and inflation began to rise. Today, that just isn’t happening. The Fed and its staff, like any good economists, rely on past patterns as a guide to future outcomes. And now, those patterns are no longer working: Wages are no longer following productivity upwards, and thus even many nominally employed people still feel poorer. At the same time, inflation appears all but nonexistent, despite many warnings to the contrary. So how can you justify raising rates?
Thus Yellen’s challenge—and, in truth, our collective challenge—is that the standards that are supposed to guide monetary policy appear to have collapsed.
What she is offering is something resembling the truth: it is looking increasingly unlikely that inflation, wages and labor markets are in a cyclical funk in the United States and increasingly likely that some fundamental structural shift has occurred. That shift, of lower cost goods, less velocity of money, lower wages, gig employment, the disruptions of technology, globalized capital markets, evaporating inflation, invalidates many of the bedrock assumptions of central banks. Yellen and many others are working furiously to understand and not to make missteps born of rigid and false theories.
Yellen knows perhaps better than most economists how much things have changed. Unlike some of the more conservative economists who have led the Fed, she sees unemployment as a social problem; the complexities of the labor market are her life’s work and passion, especially reducing chronically high long-term unemployment. Her mentor at Yale was the Nobel-winning liberal economist James Tobin, a Keynes acolyte, who schooled her in deep structural joblessness of the Depression, and the financial recklessness that led to it. Thus, when it comes to the Fed’s traditional “dual mandate” of both price stability and full employment, she seems very focused on the latter, transforming simple measures into a complex “dashboard” (as she calls it) of at least nine ways of looking at employment, including the job openings rate and the rate of layoffs.
Yellen also has a passion for reality, and for not pretending that the world is simple, two-dimensional, easy to gauge or ideological. Our problem today isn’t that she thinks this way; it’s that so few others in public life appear to do so. Her views, along with the deep and often wonky work of the Fed’s considerable staff of economists and statisticians and bankers, are as close to apolitical as you can get in government. She may be deeply mindful of her legacy, as her predecessors Alan Greenspan and Bernanke and a long line of others surely were; that only reinforces the intent to somehow get the big picture right and act accordingly.
And so, we are basically waiting for Janet Yellen to reinvent our understanding of the economy.
It’s possible she could do it. Today’s Fed has more powers and a broader mandate than the Fed that was created in 1913. Over time, its charter has been amended by Congress and its actions have been accorded greater weight by the markets. In addition to its dual mandate, it is now a lender-of-last-resort to banks. And with the dollar as the world’s de facto reserve currency, it must consider global financial risks and weaknesses as well.
To do that, it has at its disposal some basic tools–expanding or contracting the supply of money to affect short-term interest rates–and some unconventional ones such as the quantitative easing undertaken in the wake of the financial crisis.
And unlike Alan Greenspan, who seemed genuinely confused when the Fed began to raise rates in 2004 and global interest instead started to fall, Yellen clearly understands that the world has shifted in some fundamental way, even if she’s not entirely sure what it has shifted to.
One of the key questions the Fed faces is whether the present confusion is a cyclical phenomenon stemming from the aftermath of the financial crisis or a structural shift that means we are not going back to past norms. Said Yellen, addressing the annual Fed gathering at Jackson Hole last year, “What portion of the decline in labor force participation reflects structural shifts and what portion reflects cyclical weakness in the labor market?” She then acknowledged that the answer to her question was not simple: “ I expect … that our understanding of labor market developments and their potential implications … will remain far from perfect. As a consequence, monetary policy ultimately must be conducted in a pragmatic manner that relies not on any particular indicator or model, but instead reflects an ongoing assessment of a wide range of information … “
Juxtapose that statement, in all of its glorious, unequivocal uncertainty, with what passes for analysis among many of today’s political class. A recent editorial in The Hill blasted the Fed for fomenting a climate of uncertainty that was stultifying economic growth. That is only slightly better than Trump’s charge, and represents a widely held view that by forcefully stating the case of uncertainty and ambiguity, Yellen is not acting a truth teller but instead a cause of the current economic malaise. Some investors have charged that she has caused a “dazed and confused market.” How’s that for blaming the messenger?
Yellen will need all her passion for understanding the new economic direction we are in over the months ahead. She is facing relentless criticism not just from the likes of Trump and Nader, but from market mavens such as Carl Icahn and Stanley Druckenmiller who believe that the Fed under her aegis and that of Bernanke have created dangerous bubbles with zero interest rates and quantitative easing. That is an easy charge, and one which Yellen does not engage. She is too occupied trying to come to grips with a labor market and a financial system that just don’t make sense in terms of the familiar patterns of the 20th century.
Another fraught issue is whether the Fed can or should be using monetary tools to address structural issues in the labor market. The harm that the Fed can do to a fragile system is more immediately evident than any benefit that easy money can have on the hiring of more workers and the paying of current ones. When those patterns of tighter labor and then higher wages held, perhaps, but those patterns are nowhere evident today.
To which Yellen responds, “We just don’t know.” It’s said that the first step in any honest recovery is to admit what one can do and what one cannot. True, that is typically the mantra for recovery from substance abuse, but perhaps it has some traction for grappling with an economic recovery unlike any other. Yellen is the opposite of ego and certainty asserting itself, and that clearly confuses and angers many who want and demand that. Her message time and again is that she will not dictate monetary policy based on what people want the Fed to do or what rigid formulas may suggest. Her message time and again is that we live in an uncertain world with multiple variables and that any course of action must consider and game out multiple scenarios. And her message in the end is that there is so much we do not know about the world today, and that in the face of such uncertainty, caution and care are more important than decisive action for its own sake.
Media and political culture today, however, cannot digest those messages. The demand for simplicity and clarity communicated quickly rejects them, and hence tends to reject Yellen and the Fed culture today. What they want, she isn’t offering.
Could Yellen’s extreme caution in the face of uncertainty end badly? Of course it could. That does not mean it is the wrong approach, only that it carries its own risks. But faced with the blind, infantile cry for certainty, we should embrace Yellen’s passion for the real world rather than craving false answers that would do far more harm.
Zachary Karabell is head of global strategy at Envestnet and author of The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World. He is a contributing editor at Politico Magazine.
The market has spoken: The Fed will raise rates in December
An interest-rate hike in December is clearly in sight.
After months of guessing, Friday’s October jobs report jolted the market’s confidence that the Federal Reserve could — and perhaps would — raise rates next month.
The headline numbers were strong all around:
- The economy added 271,000 jobs in October, marking the fastest pace of growth this year, and crushing the expectation for 182,000.
- The unemployment rate fell to 5%, the lowest since April 2008, and a level most economists consider “full employment.”
- We even got wage growth, as average hourly earnings rose 2.5% year-on-year — the highest growth rate since the Great Recession.
- Manufacturing job growth was flat, beating the forecast for a drop by 4,000 as the sectorflirts with recession.
This looked like the kind of data that the “data-dependent” Fed needed to argue that the labor market had shown “further improvement.”
And it all comes down to two reactions in the rates market following the jobs report that make December seem not just like a “live possibility,” but the real thing.
The yield on the two-year note — which is sensitive to interest-rate expectations and closely watched by investors — spiked to as high as 0.96%, the highest intraday level in five years.
And the Fed fund futures, which gauge traders’ expectations for future interest rates, jumped to show a 70% probability of a Fed hike in December, the highest reading yet ahead of a Fed decision.
Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from Bloomberg
And this reaction in the rates markets comes after a long period in which markets have underestimated — and the Fed itself has overestimated — how soon the Federal Reserve would end emergency measures that lifted the economy out of the Great Recession.
This chart shows that the Fed’s projections for interest rates have been higher than the market’s. It was recently highlighted by David Bloom, HSBC‘s global head of FX research, as the most important chart of the moment.
Bloom argued that the Fed and the market could not be right at the same time. And following Friday’s report, it looks like the market was catching up to the Fed.
Market participants were less bullish than the Fed because they did not believe rates could rise in imperfect conditions, according to Aaron Kohli, a director at BMO Capital Markets. And it isn’t that Friday’s jobs report was “perfect.” The labor-force participation rate, for instance, still languished at a 38-year low.
But even without “perfect” conditions, it seems that the market has been convinced, particularly after last month’s weak employment report.
As Kohli told Business Insider, “there are lots of reasons to say the economy is on the path to recovery.”
‘A live possibility’
Even before Friday’s jobs report, we had already gotten a clear indication from Fed officials about what the FOMC may do next month.
At a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday, Fed chair Janet Yellen said the economy was “performing well,” and that a rate hike in December is “a live possibility.” And certainly a more “hawkish” — or aggressive — posture from the Fed has been corroborated by the most high-profile data yet.
“Even formerly dovish speakers have come out as hawkish,” Kohli said.
These “former doves” include FOMC vice-chairman William Dudley, who this week said he agreed with Yellen.
But what about year-end liquidity?
But with a December hike coming into view, there’s the nagging issue of bond-market liquidity.
Treasury-market liquidity tends to shrink in the final days of the year as traders, like everyone else, go on holiday. Additionally, many firms want to buy and hold on to government bonds to make their books more attractive at year-end reviews, as Bloomberg recently detailed.
And so were the Fed to raise rates in December, there could be particularly heightened market volatility. But Kohli thinks this is no excuse, as the Fed cannot postpone on this basis every year.
Moreover, there’s been more than enough time for markets to prepare. The Fed has “choreographed it very well,” Kohli said. “They’ve emphasized that ‘we aren’t joking here.’”
After the initial hike, though, markets will be set to grapple with the more substantive question of what does the full path of a Fed rate-hiking cycle look like.
“The bond market has been pricing in an extremely gradual path [of rate hikes],” Kohli said. “And whether it’s going to be quite as gradual as that, I think, is a completely different question.”
Said another way, the market is focused on December, but the really interesting part comes after the first move from the Fed.
Following Friday’s jobs report, shops across Wall Street were fine-tuning their predictions for when the Fed would first raise rates.
Barclays flipped, shifting its forecast for the first hike in nine years from March to December.
The firm wrote in a note to clients that it had assumed the recent market volatility would last longer than it did. But the fact that markets calmed, the Fed got more hawkish, and Friday’s jobs report was solid necessitated a change in its call.
And you’ve got to hand it to Goldman Sachs’ economists, who back in June pegged their rate-hike forecast on December, which now looks like a right call.
In an interview on CNBC Friday, chief economist Jan Hatzius said that it’s not too soon to start talking about a second rate hike in March.
This, it would seem, could become the real story.
US October Jobless Rate Down To 5%: That Fed Interest Rate Rise Sure Is Close
We’ve the October employment numbers for the US and they’re looking good. Unemployment, by the U3 measure, is down to only 5% now after the economy added 271,000 jobs in October. We might think that this makes up for the pretty dismal September numbers but that’s not really how these statistics work. Our error bar here is 100,000 each way: so, that September number of 137,000 really meant somewhere between 37,000 and 237,000, today’s number really means 171,000 to 371,000 (and no one is going to believe it is the top end of that range). Really, the proper way to read these numbers is that the economy is creating in the range of top end of the 1×0 thousands to the bottom middle 2×0 thousands per month. And that’s a pretty good performance rolling along and we’re reasonably fine with it.
Here’s one report on it:
The job market numbers for September were pretty terrible across the board. Now the results are in for October and they’re pretty terrific across the board.
Of course there is no reason to think there was a radical yo-yo effect that caused the economy to add a mere 137,000 jobs in September but a whopping 271,000 in October. Similarly, there is no reason that the number of people who neither had a job nor were looking for one spiked and then fell, or that pay increases came to a halt around Labor Day only to begin soaring again in the run-up to Halloween. More likely the United States job market has been improving at the same.
But it’s not that which is likely to have the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December. Because we’re really still not sure that the U3 unemployment rate is quite the right one to be looking at. There’s that U6 measure as well, which includes those discouraged workers, people so long out of employment that we’re really not sure whether they’ll ever come back into working.
The more of them that do then the longer we can let the expansion run on before we raise interest rates to head off inflation. That is, in the jargon, we don’t know what nairu (the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) is. Worse, it’s something we can only calculate in retrospect. However, we do have a reasonable proxy for working this out. If we’re starting to see significant wage rises then we can assume that we are at about nairu. Not, specifically, because rising wages drive inflation (although that can happen) but if we’re at the limit of the labour force then we’re at near the productive limit of the economy. And thus inflation will rise if demand does, not production. Thus strong wage rises are a signal of being near capacity, not necessarily themselves a cause of inflation.
And that’s what we do see:
The American economy added 271,000 jobs in October, the government reported Friday, a very strong showing that makes an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve much more likely when policy makers meet next month.
The unemployment rate dipped to 5 percent, from 5.1 percent in September. Average hourly earnings also bounced back, rising 0.4 percent in October after showing no increase in September; that lifted the gain to 2.5 percent over the last 12 months, the healthiest since 2009.
We may not particularly like this state of the economy, we might wish for both stronger employment and even for faster growth in both the economy and wages. But according to the standard rules now is indeed about the right time to start raising interest rates. So, that’s we should expect the Fed to start doing.
financialpost: Payrolls and wage growth soared in October, prompting the market to fortify its resolve that the Federal Reserve will deliver its first interest rate hike in roughly nine and a half years in December.
The probability of liftoff before year-end spiked to 68 per cent as traders and economists digested how the latest jobs report will influence the central bank.
Continued improvements in the labour market and the pick-up in earnings give monetary policy makers more confidence that inflation will trend higher, especially as the impact of the plunge in crude prices begins to fade from the headline rate in the coming months.
“This is just what the Dr. (Yellen) ordered,” writes Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Harris outlined five reasons why “Fedexodus,” the initial normalization of monetary policy, won’t have a crippling effect on real economic activity.
1. Fed policy has bolstered the economy’s fundamentals. “There has been an impressive recovery in bank lending and the housing market and low interest rates have made household debt burdens manageable,” the economist wrote. The portion of disposable income spent paying debt is near its lowest level on record, while consumer credit growth surged to US$28.9 billion in September, far exceeding expectations.
2. Lawmakers will stop abjectly stifling growth. “We are encouraged by the gradual shift toward compromise and modest fiscal easing and away from confidence-sapping brinkmanship,” said Harris. As monetary policy is set to remove accommodation, government spending is poised to at least partially offset any ensuing drag on the economy.
3. Concerns over China are proving to be overblown. Worries about China were palpable in the third quarter, evidenced by the crash in the Shanghai Composite index following its parabolic surge, and the notion that policymakers would further weaken the currency after the surprise August devaluation. There has been a marked improvement on both of these fronts in recent months, notes Harris. “Reduced market anxiety about the ongoing weakness in China removes the latest (temporary) barrier to Fedexodus,” he concludes.
4. The economy has weathered Fed-induced drags fairly well. Neither the taper tantrum nor the lofty greenback irreparably derailed U.S. growth, the economist observes. “As the recent inventory correction and trade drags fade, we expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8 per cent in the fourth quarter,” writes Harris.
5. Central banks aren’t diverging by that much. “The prospective policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks is modest by historic standards,” the economist wrote. “For example, the Fed and ECB balance sheets are similar in size and the roughly 100 basis point divergence in policy rates over the next year is not high by historic standards.” Moreover, Harris stresses that people tend to overemphasize the negative effects of central bank divergence (the stronger dollar’s deleterious impact on U.S. exports, for instance) and downplay the potential positive spillovers. Enhanced stimulus from the ECB, the economist argues, can boost the continent’s economic prospects, thereby supporting demand for American imports from the region. Secondly, increased accommodation can support stocks not only in Europe, but also in the U.S. In previous instances in which ECB President Mario Draghi made dovish comments or moved to boost stimulus, U.S. equity markets have tended to rise alongside their European counterparts while the greenback gained on the euro:
If the market begins to perceive that the “Fedexodus” will be executed successfully, Harris expects the doomsday low inflation scenarios suggested by forward breakevens will dissipate, which “could have a broader positive impact on economic and market sentiment.”
JAKARTA. Gubernur the Fed Janet Yellen menegaskan kemungkinan penaikan tingkat bunga pada Desember mendatang, namun penaikan akan dilakukan bertahap guna mengamankan pemulihan ekonomi yang tengah berlangsung.
Dalam satu pernyataan kepada publik pertama setelah pertemuan pimpinan bank sentral AS pekaln lalu, Yellen memaparkan dasar rencana penaikan tingkat bunga itu. Menurutnya, rendahnya angka pengangguran, pertumbuhan berkelanjutan serta kepercayaan pasar atas tingkat inflasi menunjukkan negara itu siap untuk menghadapi penaikan tingkat bunga.
Pidato Yellen langsung membuat imbal hasil obligasi naik dan harga saham melemah. Dia juga membuat investor berubah pikiran terkait rencana penaikan tingkat bunga pada Desember sehingga lebih dari 60% dari mereka percaya akan rencana itu.
“Apa yang diperkirakan pejabat bank sentral adalah bahwa ekonomi akan terus tumbuh pada kecepatan yang mampu memperbaiki bursa tenaga kerja dan mengembalikan inflasi ke target 2% untuk jangka menengah,” ujar Yellen sebagaimana dikutip Reuters, Kamis (5/11/2015).
Dia menambahkan bahwa jika informasi terbaru mendukung harapan para pejabat itu maka ada indikasi bahwa kemungkinan besar pada Desember akan dilakukan penaikan tingkat bunga.
Sumber : BISNIS.COM
Liputan6.com, Jakarta – Nilai tukar rupiah bergerak melemah pada perdagangan Jumat pekan ini. Dua sentimen membebani rupiah yaitu sentimen dari Amerika Serikat (AS) dan sentimen dari Rancangan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (RAPBN) 2016.
Mengutip Bloomberg, Jumat (30/10/2015), nilai tukar rupiah berada di level 13.674 per dolar AS pada pukul 12.00 WIB. level tersebut melemah jika dibandingkan penutupan sehari sebelumnya yang ada di level 13.619 per dolar AS maupun pembukaan hari ini yang ada di level 13.585 per dolar AS.
Pada pagi hingga siang hari ini, rupiah bergerak di kisaran 13.585 per dolar AS hingga 13.695 per dolar AS.
Sedangkan Kurs Referensi Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) Bank Indonesia menunjukkan rupiah berada di level 13.639 per dolar. Melemah jika dibandingkan perdagangan sehari sebelumnya yang ada di level 13.562 per dolar AS.
Ekonom PT Samuel Sekuritas Rangga Cipta menjelaskan, pelemahan rupiah seiring dengan aksi jual di pasar saham dan obligasi Indonesia. Tren penguatan dolar AS memang sangat terasa di Asia setelah pernyataan dari Bank sentral Amerika Serikat (the Fed) yang mengarah kepada rencana semula yaitu untuk menaikkan suku bunga acuan pada tahun ini juga.
The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga pada rapat yang diselenggarakan pada Rabu (28/10/2015) waktu setempat atau Kamis pagi waktu Jakarta. Namun the Fed menegaskan bahwa masih ada kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga pada pertemuan yang akan dilakukan selanjutnya.
Apa yang menjadi keputusan the Fed untuk menahan suku bunga pada rapat kali ini sesuai dengan perkiraan dari para pelaku pasar. Namun langkah untuk tetap membuka peluang kenaikan suku bunga pada Desember nanti merupakan keputusan yang cukup mengejutkan bagi pelaku pasar.
Sedangkan sentimen penahan penguatan rupiah dari dalam negeri adalah proses pengesahaan R-APBN 2016 yang terhambat. “Sentimen tersebut mengurangi alasan untuk terus mengakumulasi aset keuangan berbasis rupiah,” jelasnya. (Gdn/Zul)
New York, Oct 28, 2015 (AFP)
The dollar rallied Wednesday, buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s policy statement suggesting an interest rate hike could come in December.
After a two-day meeting, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged near zero, as expected, and downplayed concerns about international developments that it had cited in September as reason to delay a hike.
It presented a rosier view of the economy than it had last month, highlighting “solid” increases in consumer spending — the key driver of the economy — and business investment.
The dollar jumped more than one cent against the euro, which dropped below $1.10 for the first time since early August. Around 2100 GMT, the euro traded at $1.0921, down from $1.1041 at the same time Tuesday.
The greenback advanced to 121.09 yen from 120.48 yen the prior day.
Amid expectations before the meeting that the Fed could delay the rate move until at least March, the FOMC clearly put a hike on the table “at its next meeting”, which is December 15-16.
“With the Fed still on track to raise interest rates before long, we maintain our outlook for a stronger US dollar,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.
2100 GMT Wednesday Tuesday
<pre> EUR/USD 1.0921 1.1041
EUR/JPY 132.24 133.02
EUR/CHF 1.0861 1.0897
EUR/GBP 0.7154 0.7216
USD/JPY 121.09 120.48
USD/CHF 0.9945 0.9871
GBP/USD 1.5266 1.5300
Dennis P. Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in a recent interview with The Advertiser that any interest rate increases the U.S. Federal Reserve would make will be gradual, with the rise in rates likely to be announced in October or December.
Last week, Lockhart was one of several Federal Open Market Committee members who voted against changing short-term interest rates. This surprised some market number-crunchers, mainly due to the previous consensus that the Fed would pull the trigger on a rate hike in its September committee meeting. However, Lockhart said a rate hike may still be coming soon, citing variables such as higher consumer spending and dropping unemployment, also noting that the lack of certainty in overseas markets and laggard inflation may make it difficult to decide.
Lockhart told The Advertiser that if the Fed raises interest rates, which may happen sometime in the December ending quarter, the rate hike will be gradual. “The environment in which the U.S. economy operates, on a global basis, is still rather weak,” he explained. “Some of the market turmoil that we’ve seen over the last three or four weeks is related to China’s (economy) slowing down, for example.” Lockhart was cagey, however, when it came to the definition of “gradual” in the contextof the Fed’s language. He said this may mean interest rates not being increased every meeting, but added that the Fed committee has yet to hammer out any final plan.
Regarding the impact of volatile overseas markets, Lockhart said that the Fed is “not focused on helping Wall Street,” rather focused on the risks to the broader economy. “We don’t have anything against Wall Street, but it’s the overall economy that matters,” he added. “The oil price question has been one in which we expected short-term employment drag coming out of layoffs in the oil and gas industry, and a somewhat longer-term kick to the consumption from people having more disposable income.”
Lockhart also stressed that he does not see any risk of a “mini-recession” due to the resilience of the broader U.S. economy. He said that this has built up over the last few years, leading to a “better balanced” economy with a stronger financial system. Going forward, Lockhart looks forward to a continued modest economic growth, which he feels is “respectable,” if not compleyely impressive.
inilah.com Washington – Gubernur Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat Janet Yellen, memantik ketidakpastian baru dengan mengatakan rencana penaikan suku bunga pada tahun ini.
Kata Yellen, Kamis (24/9/2015), penaikan suku bunga The Fed (Fed rate) ini, tetap akan dilakukan tahun ini, meski pelemahan ekonomi di sejumlah negara sedang terjadi.
Alasan Yellen, sangat pragmatis bahwa perekonomian AS sedang dilanda perbaikan. “Kemungkinan besar awal kenaikan suku bunga federal funds tetap pada tahun ini,” kata Yellen saat berpidato di Universitas Massachusetts, Amherst.
Para pembuat kebijakan (The Fed) tetap memantau pelemahan ekonomi global, kata Yellen, namun tidak akan memengaruhi rencana tersebut. “Tetap kita pantau (pelemahan global), hanya saja tidak banyak berdampak (penaikan Fed rate),” papar Yellen.
Pada 17 September lalu, sidang The Fed memutuskan untuk menunda rencana penaikan Fed rate. Artinya, Fed rate tetap berada di 2,5% sejak krisis 2008. Namun, keputusan bisa jadi tak berumur panjang karena The Fed akan kembali bersidang pada Oktober dan Desember nanti.
Saat ini, lanjut Yellen, perkembangan ekonomi negeri Uncle Sam ini, cukup kuat. Kenaikan rata-rata pekerjaan bulanan sebesar 210.000.
Sumber : INILAH.COM
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Pengamat Ekonomi sekaligus Direktur Eksekutif Institute National Development and Financial (Indef), Enny Sri Hartati meyakini, terus terpuruknya rupiah tak hanya karena keputusan penundaan kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (The Fed) semata. Pemerintah kata dia, punya andil terhadap pelemahan mata uang garuda tersebut dengan ikut menciptakan ketidakpastian di pasar valas.
“Pasar uang itu kan ruang untuk spekulasinya tinggi. Persoalannya memang pemerintah sendiri yang membuka ruang bagi spekulasi itu,” ujar Enny di Jakarta, Jumat (25/9/2015).
Ruang yang dimaksud tersebut yaitu adanya beberapa informasi kepada para pelaku pasar mengenai kemungkinan bila rupiahtembus Rp 15.000 per dollar AS. Dia melanjutkan, kabar tersebut kian santer ditelinga pasar setelah ada Menteri BUMN Rini Soemarno pergi ke Tiongkok untuk meminjam sejumlah uang. Pasar kata Enny, menilai kejadian-kejadian itu memiliki benang merah.
Selain itu kata dia, pasar juga mendengar bank-bank BUMN “dipaksa” untuk membiayai rencana pembangunan kerata cepat yang saat ini ada dalam kewenangan Kementerian BUMN.
“Orang jadi khawatir rupiah akan terus melemah dan akhirnya orang jadi borong dollar AS. Pasar juga khawatir defisit neraca perdagangan dengan Tiongkok terus melebar,” kata Enny.
Menurut dia, pemerintah seharusnya menghentikan ketidakpastian di pasar uang dengan memberikan kejelasan dalam setiap program pemerintah.
Selama ini tutur Enny, pemerintah terkesan tak kompak saat menggulirkan suatu program. Akibatnya, pasar tak bisa membaca arah kebijakan pemerintah sehingga ruang ketidakpastian itu terus semakin lebar. Begitu kata Enny.
Beban pelemahan rupiah ini menurut dia tak bisa dibebankan kepada otoritas moneter semata yaitu Bank Indonesia (BI). Cadangan devisa yang dimiliki BI memiliki angka yang terbatas dan tak mungkin terus-terusan disuntikkan ke pasar uang untuk menjaga nilai tukar rupiah.
Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar AS di pasar spot, Jumat (25/9/2015) dibuka melemah ke posisi Rp 14.706 per dollar AS, lebih rendah dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya pada 14.684.