kita dah lewati KRISIS-KRISIS RAKSASA ekonomi GLOBAL, sejak 1997 malah… terbukti REKSA DANA SAHAM PANIN DANA MAKSIMA TETAP MELESAT 75 KALI LIPAT neh
Fed Funds Rate
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What it means: The interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other, usually on an overnight basis. The law requires banks to keep a certain percentage of their customer’s money on reserve, where the banks earn no interest on it. Consequently, banks try to stay as close to the reserve limit as possible without going under it, lending money back and forth to maintain the proper level.
How it’s used: Like the federal discount rate, the federal funds rate is used to control the supply of available funds and hence, inflation and other interest rates. Raising the rate makes it more expensive to borrow. That lowers the supply of available money, which increases the short-term interest rates and helps keep inflation in check. Lowering the rate has the opposite effect, bringing short-term interest rates down.
investopedia: The Taylor Rule is an interest rate forecasting model invented and perfected by famed economist John Taylor in 1992 and outlined in his landmark 1993 study “Discretion Vs. Policy Rules in Practice”.
Taylor operated in the early 1990s with credible assumptions that the Federal Reserve determined future interest rates based on the rational expectations theory of macroeconomics. This is a backward-looking model that assumes that if workers, consumers and firms have positive expectations for the future of the economy, interest rates don’t need an adjustment. The problem with this model is not only that it is backward looking, but also that it doesn’t take into account long-term economic prospects.
The Phillips curve was the last of discredited rational expectations theory models that attempted to forecast the tradeoff between inflation and employment. The problem again was that while short-term expectation may have been correct, long-term assumptions based on these models are difficult, and how can adjustments be made to an economy if the interest rate action taken was wrong? Here, monetary policy was based more on discretion than concrete rules. What economists found was that they couldn’t imply monetary expectations based on rational expectation theories any longer, particularly when an economy didn’t grow or stagflation was the result of recent interest rate change. This situation brought rise to the Taylor rule. (Learn more in Forces Behind Interest Rates.)
The formula used for the Taylor rule looks like this:
|i= r* + pi + 0.5 (pi-pi*) + 0.5 ( y-y*).|
i = nominal fed funds rate
r* = real federal funds rate (usually 2%)
pi = rate of inflation
p* = target inflation rate
Y = logarithm of real output
y* = logarithm of potential output
What this equation says is that the difference between a nominal and real interest rate is inflation. Real interest rates are factored for inflation while nominal rates are not. Here we are looking at possible targets of interest rates, but this can’t be accomplished in isolation without looking at inflation. To compare rates of inflation or non-inflation, one must look at the total picture of an economy in terms of prices.
Prices and inflation are driven by three factors: the Consumer Price Index, producer prices and the Employment Index. Most nations in the modern day look at the Consumer Price Index as a whole rather than look at core CPI. Taylor recommends this method, as core CPI excludes food and energy prices. This method allows an observer to look at the total picture of an economy in terms of prices and inflation. Rising prices means higher inflation, so Taylor recommends factoring the rate of inflation over one year (or four quarters) for a comprehensive picture.
Taylor recommends the real interest rate should be 1.5 times the inflation rate. This is based on the assumption of an equilibrium rate that factors the real inflation rate against the expected inflation rate. Taylor calls this the equilibrium, a 2% steady state, equal to a rate of about 2%. Another way to look at this is the coefficients on the deviation of real GDP from trend GDP and the inflation rate. Both methods are about the same for forecasting purposes. But that’s only half of the equation – output must be factored in as well. (See Why The Consumer Price Index Is Controversial to learn more.)
The total output picture of an economy is determined by productivity, labor force participation and changes in employment. For the equation, we look at real output against potential output. We must look at GDP in terms of real and nominal GDP, or, to use the words of John Taylor, actual vs. trend GDP. To do this, we must factor in the GDP deflater, which measures prices of all goods produced domestically. We do this by dividing nominal GDP by real GDP and multiplying this figure by 100. The answer is the figure for real GDP. We are deflating nominal GDP into a true number to fully measure total output of an economy. (For more, see What Is GDP And Why Is It So Important?)
The product of the Taylor Rule is three numbers: an interest rate, an inflation rate and a GDP rate all based on an equilibrium rate to gauge exactly the proper balance for an interest rate forecast by monetary authorities.
The rule for policymakers is this: The Federal Reserve should raise rates when inflation is above target or when GDP growth is too high and above potential. The Fed should lower rates when inflation is below the target level or when GDP growth is too slow and below potential. When inflation is on target and GDP is growing at its potential, rates are said to be neutral. This model aims to stabilize the economy in the short term and to stabilize inflation over the long term. To properly gauge inflation and price levels, apply a moving average of the various price levels to determine a trend and to smooth out fluctuations. Perform the same functions on a monthly interest rate chart. Follow the fed funds rate to determine trends.
The Bottom Line
The Taylor Rule has held many central banks around the world in good stead since its inception in 1993. It has served not only as a gauge of interest rates, inflation and output levels, but also as a guide to gauge proper levels of the money supply, since money supply levels and inflation meld together to form a perfect economy. It allows us to understand money vs. prices to determine a proper balance because inflation can erode the purchasing power of the dollar if it’s not leveled properly.
While the Taylor Rule has served economies in good economic times, it can also serve as a gauge for bad economic times. Suppose that a central bank held interest rates too low for too long. This prescription is what causes asset bubbles, so interest rates must eventually be raised to balance inflation and output levels. A further problem of asset bubbles is money supply levels rise far higher than is needed to balance an economy suffering from inflation and output imbalances. (To learn more, see our Economics Basics Tutorial.)
A further slowdown in Chinese inflation compounded worries about the world’s number-two economy Tuesday, adding to selling pressure in Asian markets and extending a global retreat as talk of a December US interest rate hike increases.The below-forecast reading on China’s consumer price index — the weakest since May — comes days after Beijing data showed a sharp fall in imports and exports, and is the latest in a string of reports pointing to a growth slowdown in the country.
Officials said prices rose 1.3 percent last month, down from 1.6 percent year-on-year in September. Also, the producer price index, a measure of factory gate prices, fell 5.9 percent — matching the previous two months and marking a six-year low.
The news will add to pressure on Beijing as it struggles to transform the nation’s growth model to a more stable one driven by domestic consumption and away from decades of export reliance and state investment.
It also brought an end to a five-day rally in Shanghai, which had been boosted Monday by news that authorities will resume initial public offerings this month after a four-month hiatus caused by the summer stock rout.
The market was 0.2 percent down while Hong Kong dropped 1.3 percent and Sydney, where several firms that rely on Chinese trade are listed, was 1.0 percent lower.
However, there was some respite for emerging market currencies, which edged up slightly after being hammered Monday by last week’s better-than-expected US jobs data that ramped up expectations of a Fed rate rise next month.
Traders are betting the US central bank tightens monetary policy despite broad weakness across the global economy, particularly China — a crucial driver of world growth.
“In what is now a regular event, global markets sunk overnight and are pricing in the worst of the US and China,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist in Sydney at CMC Markets, said in an email to clients.
“According to this view, China continues to weaken toward implosion, but not far or fast enough to head off a lift in US rates,” he said, according to Bloomberg News.
On currency markets the dollar dipped against most emerging currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah and South Korean won — each of which suffered most on Monday.
Asia’s retreat followed big loses on Wall Street, where the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 each fell one percent, while there were heavier losses in Frankfurt and Paris.
Key figures around 0240 GMT
Shanghai – composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,638.38
Hong Kong: DOWN 1.3 percent at 22,425.53
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.6 percent at 19,525.87 (break)
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 123.15 yen from 123.19 yen in New York
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0755 from $1.0748 in New York
Fed holds rates steady in nod to global economic weakness
WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday in a nod to concerns about a weak world economy, but left open the possibility of a modest policy tightening later this year.
In what amounted to a tactical retreat, the U.S. central bank said an array of global risks and other factors had convinced it to delay what would have been the first rate hike in nearly a decade.
“Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term,” the Fed said in its policy statement following the end of a two-day meeting. It added the risks to the U.S. economy remained nearly balanced but that it was “monitoring developments abroad.”
However, the central bank maintained its bias towards a rate hike sometime this year, while lowering its long-term outlook for the economy. Fresh economic projections showed 13 of 17 Fed policymakers still foresee raising rates at least once in 2015, down from 15 at the last meeting in June. Four policymakers now believe rates should not be raised until at least 2016, compared to two who felt that way in June.
The Fed has policy meetings in October and December.
In deciding when to hike rates, the Fed repeated that it wanted to see “some further improvement in the labor market,” and be “reasonably confident” that inflation will increase.
Taken as a whole, the latest Fed projections of slower GDP growth, low unemployment and still low inflation suggest that concerns of a so-called secular stagnation may be taking root among Fed policymakers. One policymaker even suggested a negative federal funds rate.
The median projection of the 17 policymakers showed the Fed expects the economy to grow 2.1 percent this year, slightly faster than previously thought. However, its forecasts for GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 were downgraded.
Policymakers also forecast inflation to creep only slowly toward the Fed’s 2 percent target even as unemployment dips lower than previously expected. They now expect the unemployment rate to hit 4.8 percent next year, remaining at that level for as long as three years.
The Fed’s projected path of interest rates shifted downward, with the long-run federal funds rate now seen at 3.5 percent, compared to 3.75 percent at the last policy meeting.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen was scheduled to hold a press conference later Thursday afternoon to elaborate on the decision.
The vote on the policy statement was a sign of how China’s economic slowdown and market slide left Fed officials unnerved about the state of the world economy. Only Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissented.
In recent months Fed officials like board member Jerome Powell and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart had publicly endorsed a September rate hike, forming a near majority along with longstanding inflation hawks like Lacker.
In the end, however, they were left with a muddled picture marked by low U.S. unemployment and steady economic growth, but no sign that inflation has begun to rise towards the Fed’s target.
LA TIMES: The typical Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement has all the drama of a traffic signal.
Officials provide enough hints beforehand that there’s little surprise when the news comes about whether they have given the green light to an interest rate change.
That’s not the case Thursday.
Nearly a decade after the last increase in the benchmark federal funds rate — and after almost seven years of keeping it at the unprecedented level of near-zero — central bank policymakers will announce if the time has come for an increase.
Analysts said the potential for a rate hike is too close to call as the Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday wraps up its most eagerly awaited meeting in years.
There have been fewer than normal signals from Fed policymakers, including an unusual two months of public silence from Chairwoman Janet L. Yellen.
And the turmoil in financial markets that began in late August has dampened expectations that the Fed would raise the target level for the rate by 0.25 percentage point this month.
Here are five things to watch for when the Fed makes its announcement at 11 a.m. Pacific time, followed 30 minutes later by a news conference with Yellen.
One and done
In June and July, Yellen said she expected a rate hike this year, and most analysts put their money on September.
But that was before China devalued its currency late last month. The move, a signal that the Chinese economy was slowing, roiled financial markets. Many fear a Fed rate hike could add to the volatility.
The 0.25 percentage point increase in itself is minor.
“If the Fed moves the rates a quarter of a point, it probably isn’t going to have a significant impact in how CEOs invest and hire over the next 12 months,” AT&T Inc. Chief Executive Randall Stephenson said this week.
But the expectation has been that once the Fed started raising the rate, it would continue with 0.25 percentage point increases at just about every meeting for the near future.
That would be part of a long, slow climb back to about the 3% level the rate averaged from 2001 to 2007.
If the Fed goes ahead with a rate hike Thursday, it could try to soften the impact by signaling there won’t be another increase for a while.
Some analysts have called that a “one and done” rate hike.
Policymakers could indicate that approach in their policy statement. They also could show that in their estimations in the accompanying quarterly economic projections, which contain each member’s evaluation of where the federal funds rate would be at the end of the year.
Or Yellen could simply state it when she addresses reporters after the meeting.
Split the baby
If Fed officials are torn between a 0.25 percentage point rate hike or no rate hike at all, some think they could split the difference with a mini-hike of 0.125 percentage point.
The Fed frequently moved the rate by increments of an eighth of a point in the 1970s and ’80s. But it hasn’t made such a minor move since 1989.
It’s unclear whether a mini-hike would make everyone happy. It could end up upsetting both those wanting a rate hike and those opposed to one.
But don’t be shocked if the rate moves up by less than 0.25 percentage point.
On a major policy decision like the first rate hike since 2006, Yellen will strive for consensus.
Recent Fed history shows that will be difficult to obtain.
Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Va., one of the 10 voting members of the FOMC, could be a dissenter if the committee votes to hold the rate steady.
He said this month that “it’s time to align our monetary policy with the significant progress we have made.”
On the other side, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, warned this month of “pretty significant” headwinds for the U.S. economy that have “grown larger” recently.
And the committee’s vice chair, William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said late last month that the case for a September rate hike had become “less compelling” amid concerns about the global economy.
Dudley, a close ally of Yellen’s, is unlikely to dissent if the rate is raised. But Williams could.
Yellen probably will try for a unanimous vote to send a clear signal to financial markets about the Fed’s view of the economy. Getting such a vote could be a big accomplishment.
The lack of clear signals from the Fed about what it will do Thursday could translate into a wild ride on Wall Street and in financial markets abroad after the news breaks.
By one indicator based on federal funds futures, investors believe there is only about a 30% chance of a rate hike. So if the Fed increases the rate, markets would be expected to nosedive.
Adding more volatility to an already roiled financial marketplace is a reason some analysts believe Fed policymakers will wait to increase the interest rate.
In addition to its dual mandate of maximizing employment and keeping inflation in check, the Fed has had an unwritten third mandate since the Great Recession: financial stability.
“The worry surrounding a rate hike really centers around how it might affect financial markets abroad, especially in emerging market countries such as China,” said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group.
“They probably don’t want to go ahead and add to financial market volatility at this point in time,” he said.
But survey results Wednesday from CNBC showed 49% of the 51 economists, money managers and strategists the business news network polled think the Fed will increase the rate.
About 43% think the hike will come later, with the rest undecided.
That would point to a market decline if the Fed doesn’t act.
But some argue removing the questions about when the Fed would raise the rate would do more for financial stability, particularly in the long-term, than holding steady.
“It’s this deep uncertainty surrounding the conduct of monetary policy that is exacerbating swings in financial markets,” said Lawrence Goodman, a former Treasury official who is president of the Center for Financial Stability think tank.
The Fed’s decision will reverberate around the globe. But some of the biggest reactions could come from within Washington.
Liberals have been calling for Yellen and her colleagues to delay a rate increase, arguing the economy still is too weak.
Fed Up, a coalition of 25 labor, community and liberal activist groups plan a news conference Thursday morning in front of the building where Yellen will meet with reporters. The group plans to make its case that the Fed should wait until there is more improvement in the jobs market.
Liberal activists pushed for Yellen to be made Fed chair over former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers, and they’ll be upset with a rate increase this month.
Summers recently said that a rate increase now would be “a serious mistake.” His comments echoed warnings from the World Bank.
But holding the rate steady carries its own political risks.
Many Republicans have been highly critical of the Fed’s actions since the Great Recession. They’ve pushed to change the law to allow for audits of the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and require the central bank to set rules for adjusting the federal funds rate.
“Our economy would be healthier if the Federal Reserve were more predictable in its conduct of monetary policy and more transparent about its decision-making,” said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
Whichever way the Fed goes Thursday, Yellen will face heat for the decision the next time she testifies on Capitol Hill.
Kamis, 17/09/2015 Jakarta – Menko Perekonomian Darmin Nasution menegaskan penyesuaian suku bunga The Fed (Bank Sentral AS) akan memberikan kepastian terkait prospek perekonomian global yang saat ini sedang dilanda kelesuan. Sementara Bank Dunia memperingatkan risiko yang akan dihadapi negara-negara berkembang jika nantinya ada pengetatan dalam kebijakan AS mendatang yaitu penurunan besar dalam arus modal.
Jakarta detik -Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (AS), Federal Reserve (The Fed) memutuskan menahan tingkat suku bunga acuannya. Keputusan ini memperlama masa ketidakpastian bagi para investor keuangan dunia.
Menko Perekonomian, Darmin Nasution, menilai penundaan ini sama saja dengan menunda masalah. Karena masih timbul spekulasi di pasar keuangan dunia, The Fed akan menaikkan bunga acuan pada Desember nanti.
Gejolak akan muncul lagi menjelang rapat Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) yang akan berlangsung akhir tahun ini.
“Dia tidak naikkan, tidak ada gejolak, tetapi spekulasi akan datang lagi nanti, menjelang ada lagi rapat dari FOMC,” jelas Darmin di kantor Presiden, Jakarta, Jumat (18/9/2015).
“Positifnya ya, tidak ada gejolak. Nah, aneh kalau ada gejolak. Tetapi ini menunda persoalan. Seandainya naik, ada gejolak tapi ada solusi,” imbuh Darmin.
Meski begitu Darmin menyadari, keputusan suku bunga acuan dilematis bagi ekonomi AS. Naik atau tidaknya suku bunga acuan tetap memberikan dampak negatif dan positif.
Darmin menjelaskan, bila ada kenaikan suku bunga, maka akan timbul gejolak di pasar keuangan. Namun diperkirakan hanya sebentar, dan masing-masing negara bisa kembali menata fundamental ekonominya.
“Sebenarnya kan, The Fed itu dia mau naikkan bunga atau tidak naikkan bunga itu dilematis saja buat dia, termasuk Indonesia. Dia naikkan, akan ada gejolak sebentar, mungkin gejolak agak besar, habis itu agak reda, dan sesuaikan diri,” ujar Darmin.
Jadi, keputusan The Fed yang dipimpin Janet Yellen ini bukan hadiah yang bisa dinikmati Indonesia.
“Dia bukan spare (memberi) waktu, tapi tidak bisa naikkan. Ini bukan hadiah yang bisa kita nikmati. Kenapa dia tidak naikkan? Karena dia anggap rugi kalau dinaikkan,” tegas Darmin.
Fungsi The Fed itu ada dua, yaitu menjaga nilai tukar dan menjaga posisi kesempatan kerja. Berbeda dengan Indonesia, di mana BI hanya berfungsi menjaga nilai tukar rupiah.
“The Fed fungsinya ada dua, jaga nilai dolar, dan menjaga employment (penyerapan tenaga kerja), kesempatan kerja. Nah, kenapa dia tidak naikkan, angka employment-nya belum bagus. Kalau bagus, udah dia naikkan,” ujarnya.
Di samping itu, AS masih memiliki kerentanan dari sisi inflasi. Kemudian juga dolar AS yang menguat terlalu tajam terhadap banyak mata uang, sehingga mempengaruhi ekspor dan berlanjut terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.
“Kalau dia naikkan, perbaikan yang terjadi di sana, bisa balik tidak bagus,” tegas Darmin.
“Silakan kalau sudah mau mengubah (suku bunga The Fed) karena sebetulnya buat (perekonomian) dunia, tidak hanya buat Indonesia, makin cepat akan makin baik dan makin jelas situasinya,” tegas Darmin di Jakarta seperti dikutip Antara, Rabu (16/9).
Dia mengatakan para pelaku pasar pasti sudah menyiapkan antisipasi terkait kenaikan suku bunga The Fed, apalagi isu penyesuaian suku bunga tersebut telah berlangsung hampir selama setahun terakhir.
“Ini semua sudah berjalan dan istilahnya dalam keuangan sudah di-‘price in’ oleh para pelaku pasar,” katanya, menanggapi isu suku bunga The Fed yang telah menyebabkan gejolak berupa depresiasi mata uang terhadap dolar AS di berbagai negara.
Darmin menambahkan apabila The Fed sudah menaikkan suku bunga belum tentu perekonomian nasional akan kembali stabil dalam waktu cepat, namun situasinya akan menjadi lebih terkendali dan mudah diantisipasi.
“Kita tidak mengatakan langsung lebih baik, tapi buat (perekonomian) dunia, makin ditunda, maka gejolaknya makin lama. Sesederhana itu persoalannya, karena kalau semakin lama, ‘cost’ untuk mengelola (ketidakpastian) makin banyak,” katanya.
Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan salah satu risiko yang dihadapi perekonomian nasional hingga akhir tahun 2015, adalah ketidakpastian terkait penyesuaian suku bunga The Fed, yang telah menyebabkan perlemahan mata uang dan potensi terjadinya aliran modal keluar.
Namun, Menkeu menambahkan ada sedikit harapan perekonomian global mulai membaik di 2016, asalkan ada kepastian terkait kenaikan suku bunga The Fed dan Tiongkok sudah tidak lagi melakukan devaluasi yuan dalam skala besar.
Bambang mengatakan asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam RAPBN 2016 sebesar 5,5% bisa direvisi turun, karena kondisi perekonomian tahun depan masih diliputi ketidakpastian akibat kelesuan kinerja global.
Menurut rencana, pertemuan dewan moneter The Fed (Federal Open Market Committe) segera mengambil kebijakan terkait penyesuaian suku bunga, yang telah ditunggu oleh para pelaku pasar keuangan global, pada Kamis (17/9) waktu setempat.
Secara terpisah, Bank Dunia memperingatkan adanya risiko yang akan terjadi terhadap negara-negara berkembang jika nantinya ada pengetatan dalam kebijakan Amerika Serikat mendatang yaitu penurunan besar dalam arus modal.
“ Jika siklus pengetatan disertai oleh lonjakan dalam imbal hasil (yield) jangka panjang AS, seperti yang terjadi selama “taper tantrum” pada 2013, maka penurunan aliran modal ke negara berkembang bisa sangat besar,” hal itu seperti dikutip dari sebuah makalah penelitian yang dirilis oleh Bank Dunia menjelang pertemuan The Fed, pekan ini.
Istilah “taper-tantrum” telah banyak digunakan untuk menggambarkan bagaimana pasar bereaksi terhadap komentar Ketua Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke (ketika itu), bahwa Fed mungkin memperlambat atau mengurangi tingkat pembelian obligasi, yang merupakan bagian dari pelonggaran kuantitatif (program stimulus ekonomi). Penelitiannya menunjukkan lompatan 100 basis poin dalam imbal hasil jangka panjang AS, seperti yang terjadi selama “taper tantrum”, sementara bisa mengurangi agregat aliran modal ke pasar negara-negara berkembang hingga 2,2 persentase poin dari gabungan produk domestik bruto (PDB) mereka.
Lonjakan di Pasar Uang
Meski menurut data mereka, memperkirakan siklus pengetatan itu mungkin halus, itu masih menjalankan risiko yang terkait dengan volatilitas pasar, dalam pandangan ekonomi global adalah penyesuaian dengan melemahnya prospek pertumbuhan, pelambatan perdagangan internasional dan harga komoditas yang terus-menerus rendah.
“Risiko diperparah oleh lonjakan terbaru dalam volatilitas di pasar keuangan global dan memburuknya prospek pertumbuhan di negara-negara berkembang, Sebuah perubahan mendadak dalam selera risiko terhadap aset-aset pasar negara berkembang bisa menular dan mempengaruhi aliran modal ke berbagai negara,” kata Direktur Development Prospects Group, Bank Dunia Ayhan Kose, kemarin.
Bank Indonesia (BI) pun menyatakan terus melakukan antisipasi sambil menunggu The Fed menaikkan suku bunganya. BI pun mengaku selalu berada di pasar untuk mengurangi volatilitas harian di valuta asing (valas). “Kelihatannya memang ada risiko untuk mundur lagi, karena memang unemployment membaik, tapi kalau lihat proyeksi inflasi masih rendah,” jelas Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Moneter BI Juda Agung.
Dia mengaku tak tahu kapan The Fed menaikkan suku bunga. Sebelumnya dikabarkan, di September 2015. “Kemungkinan Desember,” tuturnya. Juda menambahkan, devaluasi yuan memang memberikan dampak penurunan harga. Dampak deflasi juga terjadi di berbagai negara termasuk Amerika Serikat. “Hal itu karena Amerika Serikat banyak impor dari China,” tambah Juda.
Mengutip media asing CNBC, Goldman Sachs memprediksi hasil pertemuan bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) pada pekan ini akan menunda kenaikan suku bunga hingga Desember 2015. Analis Goldman Sachs David Kostin dalam catatannya menyebutkan kalau kemungkinan sekitar 28% bank sentral AS akan menaikkan suku bungapada September 2015. Di sisi lain, kenaikan suku bunga kemungkinan dilakukan pada Desember.
Sejumlah investor dan ekonom di seluruh dunia sedang menunggu hasil keputusan bank sentral yang diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga untuk pertama kali sejak 2006. Meski ada potensi penundaan kenaikan suku bunga, tim strategi investasi Goldman Sachs melihat kalau investor harus menghadapi kenaikan suku bunga AS.
Selain itu, Goldman Sachs pun telah melaporkan sejumlah saham yang dapat dimiliki dan dihindari ketika suku bunga naik. Strategi Goldman Sachs mengidentifikasi perusahaan yang mungkin paling banyak terpengaruh dari kenaikan suku bunga dan mengalami biaya pendanaan lebih tinggi. Anehnya, satu perusahaan mengalami dua kategori itu yaitu Apple. Secara umum, tim Goldman Sachs menemukan apa yang disebut dengan kualitas saham dengan perusahaan memiliki neraca kuat.
Head of Research NH Korindo Securities Indonesia (NHKSI) Reza Priyambada mengatakan bahwa laju pasar obligasi masih dalam tren penurunan seiring respon negatif pelaku pasar terhadap cenderung meningkatnya yield obligasi global sebagai antisipasi jelang pertemuan The Fed dan rapat dewan Gubernur BI.
“Pelemahan rupiah masih menjadi penghalang laju pasar obligasi untuk dapat mengalami kenaikan. Obligasi tenor menengah masih menjadi sasaran aksi jual yang terlihat dari yield yang kembali naik melebihi tenor lainnya,” ujarnya, kemarin.
Pada obligasi pemerintah, lanjutnya, kenaikan yield untuk masing-masing tenor rata-rata ialah untuk pendek (1-4 tahun) rata-rata mengalami kenaikan yield 5,89 bps; tenor menengah (5-7 tahun) naik sebesar 7,87 bps; dan panjang (8-30 tahun) naik 3,91 bps.
Pada FR0070 yang memiliki waktu jatuh tempo ±9 tahun dengan harga 94,40% dan yield 9,34% atau naik 6,89 bps dari sehari sebelumnya di harga 94,79%. Untuk FR0071 yang memiliki waktu jatuh tempo ±14 tahun dengan harga 96,30% dan yield 9,49% atau naik 6,72 bps dari sehari sebelumnya di harga 96,79%.
Sementara pada laju obligasi korporasi, memperlihatkan perubahan yield yang kembali mengalami kenaikan seiring kembali melemahnya sejumlah harga obligasi. Untuk yield pada rating BBB dengan tenor 9-10 tahun naik di kisaran 15,50%-15,53% dan pada rating AA naik di kisaran 11,70%-11,75%. bari/mohar/fba
reuters: While investors, traders and forecasters may be on the fence as to whether the Fed pulls the trigger this week on the first U.S. interest rate hike in nearly a decade, Wall Street’s “smart money” is decisive on one thing: market volatility will linger.
Heading into Thursday’s potentially momentous decision on interest rates from the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy-setting panel, speculative positions in CBOE VIX index futures are the most net long on record.
To this crowd of hedge funds and other big speculators, it really doesn’t matter what the Fed does. Raising rates for the first time since 2006 would almost certainly send waves through equity markets, and not moving will keep the guessing game – and accompanying market gyrations – alive for weeks to come.
“There is a general consensus in the market that the Fed meeting will continue the volatility, and if they don’t do anything it may sustain the volatility at least for six more weeks till their next meeting,” said J.J. Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.
The most recent weekly Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows speculative net long positions in VIX futures stood at 37,925 contracts as of Sept. 13. Not only is that a record high, it is more than two standard deviations from the norm.
Since VIX futures, a forward-looking gauge of market risk, were introduced in 2004, speculative positions have been skewed toward lower volatility far more often than not. Long VIX futures positions benefit from increased volatility and can be used to protect equity portfolios.
Moreover, positioning in VIX futures has flipped like never before over the last month as the Fed guessing game has been compounded by worries over the health of China’s economy and its wobbly stock market.
In contrast to the latest positioning, speculators in early August were net short by 64,445 contracts – a reversal of more than 100,000 in five weeks – highlighting the strong conviction of hedge funds and other large speculators that market gyrations are far from over.
LONGEST VOL BOUT IN FOUR YEARS
Volatility arrived in earnest for U.S. stocks about four weeks ago as investors got rattled by a free fall in Chinese stocks and a series of unsuccessful measures by authorities there to stem the sell off.
That helped push the Standard & Poor’s 500 index into its first formal correction in four years, and the U.S. benchmark remains more than 7 percent off its record-high close set back in May.
Unlike the many fleeting instances of volatility spikes seen in the last couple of years, the current run up has not been quick to recede.
On Tuesday the VIX, which measures the cost for protective downside positions on the S&P, closed above 22 for the 17th consecutive day, the longest it has lingered above that level in nearly four years. The index was last down 1.7 points at 22.54 on Tuesday.
Given the duration of the current bout of volatility and shocks of similar magnitude in 1998, 2010, and 2011, it is unlikely that calm will return to markets very quickly, MKM Partners derivatives strategist Jim Strugger said in a note.
Trading in the options market also points to caution as investors protect their positions and look to replace expiring hedges.
“Do I want to hedge for the next Fed meeting, or do I want to hedge for the end of year Fed meeting?” is a question some traders appear to be asking, Kinahan said.
Another factor is that Friday is a “quadruple-witching” day, when options on stocks and indexes, and index and single-stock futures all expire together. The expiry of existing positions and the opening of new positions, called rolling, could make for some heavy trading later this week and add to market volatility.
With the Fed decision due at 2 p.m. Thursday, just hours before all those positions expire, it could make for chaotic trading.
“Thursday afternoon has a potential to be really active because what the Fed says in the meeting may spell out to people where they need to hedge to,” Kinahan said.
(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Dan Burns and Alan Crosby)
Most of the trading linked to a Fed move next week has already been made, analysts say.
time.com: With stocks already in a corrective phase on Wall Street, next week’s long-awaited Federal Reserve meeting may not spur a wild market reaction, even if the central bank hikes rates for the first time in almost a decade.
Economists are about equally split on whether the long-awaited move will come, though futures market trades are pointing to at least one more month of the Fed delaying its 0.25 percentage point increase in the fed funds rate.
But market participants say they’ve already priced in that rate hike, and its exact timing will not shake their long term bets.
For some, the repricing of the S&P 500 in recent weeks, spurred mostly by weakness in China and other foreign markets, may have actually given the Fed room for the rate hike.
“It has made the world a safer place for the Fed to do whatever they have to do in the next few weeks,” said John Manley, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in New York. Traders have already priced in the increase, and whether it comes in September, October or December “isn’t going to make an enormous difference,” he said.
Traders still expect the next month to be somewhat jittery, and may be watching industrial output and retail sales data out of China early next week for signs of just how weak Asian markets could be.
The CBOE volatility index spiked last month and its 14-day average hit its highest since late 2011 on Thursday. Spot and 1-month VIX futures are tracking each other and are both higher than 2- and 3-month VIX futures, in a rare inversion of the curve that points to sharp short-term gyrations.
It has become the norm after a Fed meeting for stocks to be volatile, often changing direction various times between the time of the statement and the market close a couple hours later.
Will They Or Won’t They?
Analysts say a large majority of the trading linked to a Fed move next week has already been made.
“If the Fed can’t be confident that the market can handle a 25 basis point hike, that doesn’t play well with investors,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen has repeatedly said a hike is data dependent but she expects to begin raising rates before the end of 2015.
Market participants are split on the meaning of a rate increase. For some, it would be the stamp of approval the U.S. economy has been expecting after a strong recovery in job creation and five consecutive quarters of GDP growth.
Others fear a hike would stymie growth that has been sluggish and also encourage deflation.
“I would be more concerned if they did not raise rates, because that would be a sign of maybe slowing economic activity,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Equities have been expected to fall on an announcement of Fed tightening, as the central bank’s ultra-easy monetary policy has been a pillar of the rally that saw the S&P 500 more than triple from early 2009 to May’s record high.
However the recent selloff, which took major indexes into correction territory, may give the market some stability however the Fed decides to act.
“Selling has been extreme,” said Frank Gretz, market analyst and technician for Wellington Shields & Co, a New York brokerage, on a Friday note. “The probabilities say a low is in.”
The Fed has tried to signal its move to markets, but a Reuters poll of economists gave the probability of a September move a 50-50 chance, down from a 60% median probability predicted in a survey taken last month.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Gubernur bank sentral sedunia meminta bank sentral AS (Federal Reserve/Fed) tidak menunda kenaikan suka bunga AS.
Baik secara pribadi maupun terang-terangan dalam konferensi bank sentral dunia di Jackson Hole pekan lalu, pesan dari para gubernur bank sentral sedunia adalah bahwa pasar keuangan dunia siap merespons kenaikan suku bunga AS oleh The Fed.
Selama ini dunia menyalahkan tindakan The Fed yang menunda-nunda kenaikan suku bunga sehingga menjadi sumber gejolak di pasar uang dunia.
Orang nomor satu bank sentral Meksiko, Agustin Carestens justru menilai kenaikan suku bunga menyiratkan kesehatan ekonomi kendati bakal mendorong Meksiko mengambil langkah serupa dalam beberapa hari ke depan.
“Jika The Fed mengetatkan (moneter dengan menaikkan suku bunga), maka itu menunjukkan fakta bahwa mereka memiliki pandangan bahwa inflasi menaik, namun yang lebih penting pengangguran turun dan ekonomi pulih. Bagi kami itu adalah kabar yang sangat baik,” katanya.
Kepala Institut Riset Keuangan dan Perbankan Bank Rakyat China, Yao Yudong pekan lalu mengambinghitamkan The Fed sebagai biang keladi terjadinya gejolak di pasar uang.
Para kepala bank sentral lainnya juga berpandangan sama dengan Yao Yudong. (antara)
WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) — U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer reiterated Saturday that the Fed has confidence that the persistently low inflation will be back to the 2-percent target as factors holding down the prices have begun to fade.
Speaking at the Fed’s policy summit held in Jackson Hole this week, Fischer did not outline the specific timetable for the first interest rate hike by the Fed since the outbreak of the global financial crisis. But he did offer more clues of the Fed’s mindset in how it is looking at the ultra-low inflation.
He noted that the falling oil prices, rising dollars and ongoing economic slack are factors behind the low inflation, but he contended that the lower oil prices are temporary, and with inflation expectations apparently stable, there are reasons to expect a gradual reduction of slack to be associated with less downward price pressure.
He admitted that a higher value of the dollar passes through to lower import prices, which hold down U.S. inflation. “It is plausible to think that the rise in the dollar over the past year would restrain growth of real GDP through 2016 and perhaps into 2017 as well,” he said.
While some effects of the rise in the dollar may be spread over time, the sharp fall in oil prices and slack in the labor market has continued to diminish. “We might therefore have expected both headline and core inflation to be moving up more noticeably toward our 2 percent objective,” he said.
“In making our monetary policy decisions, we are interested more in where the U.S. economy is heading than in knowing whence it has come,” he said.
“At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual,” he added.
He underpinned the necessity for the Fed to proceed cautiously in normalizing the stance of monetary policy, and reiterated that the entire path of interest rates matters more than the particular timing of the first increase.
Debates emerged within the Fed about liftoff timing. New York Fed President William Dudley said on Wednesday that the prospect of a September rate hike “seems less compelling” than it was only weeks ago.
But Fischer told U.S. media on Friday that It is too early to determine if the recent market turmoil has made a September rate hike more or less compelling.
Editor: Xiang Bo
kontan : JAKARTA. Mata uang USD harap-harap cemas menanti angka inflasi bulan Juli 2015 yang dirilis Rabu (19/8) waktu setempat. Selain itu, rapat Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) bakal mempengaruhi gerak dollar hari ini.
Kemarin, The Greenback tunduk dihadapan sejumlah mata uang utama dunia. Mengutip Bloomberg, Rabu (19/8) pukul 17.11 WIB, pasangan GBP/USD naik tipis 0,08% menjadi 1,5673. EUR/USD naik 0,16% ke 1,1042. Lalu USD/JPY turun 0,08% ke level 124,31. Dollar AS melemah menjelang data inflasi Juli 2015 yang diperkirakan turun menjadi 0,2% dari bulan sebelumnya 0,3%. Sementara inflasi inti diperkirakan tetap 0,2%.
Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures Putu Agus Pransuamitra mengatakan, dollar tertekan proyeksi inflasi AS. Selanjutnya hari ini, FOMC juga akan merilis notulensi rapat terkait kenaikan suku bunga.
Menurut Putu, notulensi rapat yang sudah mendekati bulan September kemungkinan positif bagi USD. Namun untuk menaikkan bunga, The Fed juga mempertimbangkan faktor ekonomi China. “Mengingat China baru saja mendevaluasi yuan,” ujar Putu.
Di sisi lain, GBP semakin pede, setelah inflasi Inggris Juli naik menjadi 0,1%, di atas perkiraan dan data sebelumnya 0%. Kenaikan inflasi Inggris ini mendukung Bank of England (BoE) menaikkan suku bunga. Sebagai catatan, suku bunga BoE saat ini 0,5%.
“Baik BoE maupun The Fed menargetkan menaikkan suku bunga. Tetapi waktu kenaikan kemungkinan lebih dulu The Fed,” lanjut Putu. Jika data ekonomi AS positif, Putu memperkirakan, GBP/USD akan melemah, demikian juga sebaliknya.
Nizar Hilmy, Analis SoeGee Futures, menjelaskan, EUR/USD menguat tipis setelah terjatuh selama empat sesi berturut-turut. Meski demikian, penguatan EUR/USD belum bisa menutupi kejatuhan sebelumnya. USD tertekan setelah data izin pembangunan AS Juli 2015 hanya 1,12 juta, turun dari bulan sebelumnya 1,34 juta, serta meleset dari perkiraan 1,23 juta.
Namun Nizar khawatir, notulensi FOMC meeting kembali menopang USD. “Penguatan EUR sangat kecil karena dari Eropa belum banyak berita dan data penting,” katanya. Menurut Nizar, EUR masih dalam tren bearish, sementara USD kembali menjadi fokus pasar dengan prospek kenaikan suku bunga. Meski, pasar sempat ragu dengan kenaikan suku bunga The Fed karena devaluasi yuan.
Nizar menduga, pada Kamis (20/8), USD bisa berpeluang menguat di hadapan EUR jika data inflasi AS yang dirilis pada Rabu (19/8) malam bagus dan FOMC Meeting Minutes memberikan pernyataan yang hawkish tentang kenaikan suku bunga.
Untuk USD/JPY, Analis PT Forti CIMB-Principal Asset Management Asia Futures Sri Wahyudi, mengatakan, data izin pembangunan AS memicu USD turun dihadapan JPY. Selain itu, pasar juga sedang wait and see data inflasi AS. “Data core CPI AS diprediksi stagnan, ini bisa membuat USD melemah,” ungkapnya.
Wahyudi mengatakan, baik The Fed maupun Bank Central Jepang (BoJ) akan mengeluarkan pernyataan terkait kebijakan moneternya pada Kamis (20/8). “Rumornya kenaikan suku bunga The Fed akan ditunda lagi karena data-data AS belakangan ini tidak terlalu bagus,” katanya. Kata Wahyudi, USD/JPY masih berpeluang menguat.
bloomberg: Traders have never been more convinced of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
The chances of an interest-rate increase next month reached 52 percent Wednesday, up from just 38 percent just two days earlier. What’s fueled the change of heart? Hawkish comments from Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart on Tuesday, and a surprisingly strong report on U.S. service-sector growth Wednesday morning.
“I’m more convinced that they’re going to raise in September,” said Christopher Sullivan, who oversees $2.4 billion as chief investment officer at United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York. “The market has come around to that view, by a slim majority.”
That’s helped drive bond yields higher before the week’s main event, Fiday’s monthly report on unemployment and wages from the Labor Department. Fed officials have said that they will need signs of some further improvement in the jobs market before they raise rates.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose five basis points to 2.27 percent Wednesday.
The Fed has held its target for the federal funds rate at virtually zero since December 2008 to bolster economic growth. The likelihood of a Fed increase is based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after the first increase.
JAKARTA kontan. Otot rupiah yang terus mengendur memicu aksi borong dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) terus berlanjut. Alhasil, enam dari 10 bank besar sudah memasang kurs jual dollar AS menembus level Rp 13.500.
Kenaikan permintaan dollar dialami Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI). Direktur Keuangan Bank BNI Rico Rizal Budidarmo mencatat, volume transaksi valas mengalami kenaikan hampir 45% menjadi US$ 2,4 miliar per Mei 2015, dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya.
“Kenaikan transaksi karena dollar masih dianggap safe haven pada saat kondisi uncertainty seperti saat ini,” ujar Rico kepada KONTAN, Selasa (28/07).
Kondisi berbeda dialami sejumlah bank. Muliadi Rahardja, Wakil Direktur Utama Bank Danamon mengatakan, pelemahan rupiah belum berdampak tinggi terhadap permintaan valas. “Aktivitas jual beli dollar AS masih normal. Likuiditas kami masih memenuhi permintaan saat ini,” ujarnya.
Hal senada juga disampaikan Roy A Arfandy, Direktur Utama Bank Permata. Menurut dia, permintaan valas masih normal karena lebih banyak untuk mendukung permintaan nasabah semisal pelunasan letter of credit jatuh tempo.
Secara umum, kata dia, volume transaksi valas tahun ini justru agak menurun jika dibandingkan dengan tahun lalu.
Rohan Hafas, Sekretaris Perusahaan Bank Mandiri menyatakan, volume transaksi valas menurun karena penurunan realisasi ekspor maupun impor nasional. “Selain itu harga harga komoditas masih belum mengalami kenaikan,” ujar Rohan.
Yang pasti, para bankir mengklaim likuiditas valas dalam kondisi aman lantaran selektif melayani permintaan dollar AS. Budi Satria, Sekretaris Perusahaan Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) mengatakan, transaksi valas di BRI tidak melonjak karena hanya melayani permintaan valas dengan underliying transaksi yang jelas.
“Kami hanya memberikan pinjaman berdenominasi valas kepada perusahaan yang memiliki pendapatan dalam valas juga,” terang Budi.
BRI menjaga rasio likuiditas (loan to deposit/LDR) valas di kisaran 85%-90%. Sementara. LDR valas Bank Mandiri aman di posisi 82%-84% di akhir semester I 2015.
Hong Kong, June 18, 2015 (AFP)
Asian markets mostly headed lower Thursday and the dollar retreated after the Federal Reserve said any rises in US interest rates would be slow.
The losses come despite another advance on Wall Street, while investors are keeping track of Greece’s troubled bailout talks as Europe’s leaders are warned of the dire consequences of failing to reach a deal.
Tokyo sank 1.13 percent, or 228.45 points, to close at 19,990.82, while in late trade Hong Kong was 0.43 percent lower.
Shanghai tumbled 3.55 percent in the afternoon on liquidity fears as several new firms prepare to list while profit-takers also moved in after a surge in the index over the past year that has seen it pile on about 140 percent.
Sydney fell 1.26 percent, or 70.5 points, to close at 5,524.9 but Seoul ended 0.34 percent higher, adding 7.02 points to 2,041.88.
After a two-day meeting the Fed on Wednesday held off hiking rates but altered its outlook for future rises, expecting a lower upward curve than previously forecast.
While policymakers kept unchanged their outlook for a 0.625 percent rate for the end of this year, the end-2016 rate was 1.625 percent, down 20 basis points from the March estimate, and 2.875 percent by the end of 2017, which was 25 basis points lower.
In a news conference afterwards, the bank’s head Janet Yellen said its first interest rate hike in nine years would likely come “later this year”.
However, she added: “My colleagues and I would like to see more decisive evidence that a moderate pace of economic growth will be sustained, so the conditions in the labour market will continue to improve and inflation will move back to two percent.”
The prospect of lower borrowing costs boosted US shares. The Dow rose 0.17 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.19 percent and the Nasdaq put on 0.18 percent.
“Yellen was dovish in the press conference,” said David Buckle, London-based head of quantitative research at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, told Bloomberg News.
“She was at pains to point out that monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for a long time after the first rate rise.”
– ‘Difficult situation’ –
The Fed also cut its growth forecast for 2015 to 1.8-2.0 percent, from March’s 2.3-2.7 percent outlook, to account for the unexpected contraction in the first quarter of the year.
The news put pressure on the dollar, which was at 123.06 yen in Tokyo Thursday, against 123.43 yen in New York and well down from 123.67 yen in Asia earlier Wednesday.
Yellen also voiced concern about Greece’s debt crisis, warning the world economy could see significant turmoil if Athens did not reach an agreement with its creditors on overhauling its bailout.
“This is a very difficult situation. In the event that there is not agreement I do see the potential for disruptions that could affect the European economic outlook and global financial markets,” Yellen said.
Failure to hammer out a deal before a debt repayment deadline at the end of the month would see it default and possibly crash out of the eurozone.
Despite talks being at a stalemate the euro ticked higher. It bought $1.1346 and 139.94 yen in Asia, compared with $1.1335 and 139.91 yen in New York. It is also well up from $1.1264 and 139.30 yen earlier Wednesday in Tokyo.
The Greek central bank also warned that failure would start “a painful course that would lead initially to a Greek default and ultimately to the country’s exit from the euro area and — most likely — from the European Union”.
The comments come as finance ministers from the 19 eurozone countries prepare to meet Thursday in Luxembourg, although several officials said they were not expecting a breakthrough.
Oil prices slipped after a mixed energy report. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for July delivery fell 21 cents to $59.71 while Brent crude for August was down 10 cents at $63.77.
Gold fetched $1,188.14 compared with $1,178.47 late Wednesday.
In other markets:
— Taipei rose 0.31 percent, or 28.54 points, to 9,218.37.
Hon Hai Precision Industry closed 0.21 percent higher at Tw$94.6 while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co was 0.35 percent lower at Tw$142.0.
— Wellington fell 0.51 percent, or 29.56 points, to 5,749.71.
Air New Zealand slumped 9.62 percent to NZ$2.395 after rival Jetstar announced a domestic expansion, while Chorus closed down 2.70 percent at NZ$2.88.
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bloomberg business: When the Federal Reserve announces the outcome of its next meeting on June 17, there’s one number traders will be looking for first: where officials expect the benchmark federal funds rate to be at the end of the year.
In March, the median estimate of the 17 officials who sit on the U.S. central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee was 0.625 percent — implying two interest-rate increases this year. As of today, market participants are convinced the Fed will do one in September, but aren’t so sure the central bank will follow through with the second one.
In the past, Fed officials including Chair Janet Yellen have downplayed the importance of the so-called “dots” that make up the chart of policy makers’ projections for the fed funds rate. Now, with the first increase potentially only months away, the dots will provide “critical information” about the committee’s near-term intentions, according to analysts led by Brian Smedley, director of U.S. rates research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and a former trader at the New York Fed.
The Fed has said it will increase the target range for the fed funds rate to between 0.25 percent and 0.50 percent when it begins raising rates. According to a New York Fed survey of the 22 primary dealers that trade directly with the U.S. central bank, the actual funds rate will settle around 0.35 percent after the first increase.
Right now, the September fed funds futures contract, which is based on the average funds rate over the course of the month, trades at an implied yield of 0.21 percent. So, the market-implied probability of liftoff by September is somewhere between 93 percent and 100 percent, according to Stan Jonas, who has been trading fed funds futures since he helped create them in 1988.
The market-implied odds of another increase by the FOMC’s December meeting, on the other hand, are nearly even, he says, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the idea of a second move this year.
If Fed officials stick to their guns and leave their projections for two rate rises this year, they may sway a few more traders to see their point of view as well.
Washington, June 4, 2015 (AFP)
The International Monetary Fund on Thursday cut its 2015 growth forecast for the United States and called on the Federal Reserve to put off a rate hike until conditions are stronger.
In an annual report of the world’s largest economy, the Fund said growth would reach only 2.5 percent this year due to the unexpected first quarter contraction, compared to the previous forecast of 3.1 percent in April.
It said growth is already rebounding from the stall. But it nevertheless strongly recommended that the Fed hold off on its planned interest rate hike until more resilience is shown, likely only in early 2016.
It said growth momentum this year had been sapped by “a series of negative shocks”, pointing to extremely harsh winter weather in parts of the country, the three-month West Coast ports slowdown that locked up trade, the sharp rise of the dollar and the downturn in the oil industry.
Still, the IMF said, “These developments represent a temporary drag but not a long-lasting brake on growth.”
“A solid labor market, accommodative financial conditions, and cheaper oil should support a more dynamic path for the remainder of the year.”
IMF chief Christine Lagarde said at a press conference on the report that the Fund sees US growth resuming a 3.0 percent pace over the rest of the year, and achieving that for the whole of 2016.
“We still believe that the underpinnings for continued expansion are in place.”
But she pushed for the Fed to hold off on a rate hike, which has been anticipated for as early as July, saying growth conditions are not yet firm enough for it.
The Fed has locked its benchmark federal funds rate at zero since 2008, and has been waiting for proof from a tightening jobs market and rising inflation that the economy is locked into higher gear to make its first increase toward a more “normal” monetary policy.
Without those signs, the IMF report warned, raising rates too soon could result in tighter financial conditions and even financial instability, that could then force the Fed to cut rates again.
That could both stir damaging volatility in world markets, and undermine the Fed’s credibility.
The Fed “should remain data-dependent and defer its first increase in policy rates until there are greater signs of wage or price inflation than are currently evident,” it said.
“Barring upside surprises to growth and inflation, this would put lift-off into the first half of 2016.”
– Dollar overvalued –
While the IMF picture for the US economy was generally positive, it noted a few weaknesses or danger points that raise risks that would have impacts far beyond US borders.
The US dollar is “moderately overvalued”, the IMF said, impacting economic growth and job creation, and holding down inflation.
“There is a risk that a further marked appreciation of the dollar — particularly one that takes place in an environment where policies to address growth deficiencies languish both in the US and abroad — would be harmful.”
The IMF review also included a new analysis of financial system stability which warned that the US needs to put more effort into monitoring and regulating non-bank financial institutions.
Investors’ search for yield in the current easy-money environment has increased the position in financial markets of lightly-regulated non-banks like insurance companies, investment funds and others, which are leveraging more and taking more risks, it noted.
This is pushing up asset valuations to what could be excessive levels, the IMF suggests, and yet for non-banks, “there is less visibility on the size and nature of the embedded risks and fewer regulatory and supervisory levers to manage those risks.”
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Bank sentral AS akan konsisten untuk menaikkan tingkat bunga akhir tahun ini setelah perbaikan dalam data tenaga kerja dan target inflasi tercapai sehingga meredam kekhawatiran atas pelemahan ekonkmi akhir-akhir ini, menurut sejumlah pejabat.
Gubernur the Fed, Janet Yellen dalam pembicaraannya mengenai prospek ekonomi diperkirakan akan mengakui terjadinya kelesuan ekonomi dalam beberapa bulan pertama tahun ini. Dia juga akan menyoroti pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang stabil sehingga the Fed akan tetap menaikkan tingakat bunga untuk pertama kalinya dalam kurun hampir sepuluh tahun.
Hasil wawancara dengan para pejabat maupun mantan pejabat bank sentral AS menunjukkan bahwa para pembuat kebijakan tidak butuh banyak bukti bahwa ekonomi bisa bertahan dengan penaikan tingkat bunga tipis pada September. Dengan demkkian pelaku ekonomi punya waktu cukup panjang untuk melakukan penyesuaian diri.
“Kami tidak melihat gangguan signifikan pada sisi tenaga kerja dan kondisi inflasi sepertinya cukup bagus saat ini meski pada kuartal pertama ekonomi lesu,” ujar Jeffrey Fuhrer, senior policy advisor Boston Fed sebagaimana dikutip Reuters, Jumat (22/5/2015).
Sedangkan Alan Blinder, mantan Wakil Gubernur the Fed, mengatakan dirinya benar-benar tidak kaget jika the Fed menaikkan tingkat bunga sebesar 0,25% baik pada September maupun Desember,” ujar Blinder, profesor ekonomi pada Princeton University.
Dia menambahkan bahwa dengan demikian the Fed kemudian bisa melihat perkembangan dulu sebelum mengambil langkah berikutnya.
Berlin, April 14, 2015 (AFP)
Top finance officials from the world’s leading economies are keeping a close eye on exchange rate swings and will discuss developments in China’s currency at talks in Washington this week, a German government source said.
Currency changes are being “closely watched” by central bankers and treasurers ahead of the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, the source told reporters.
“We’ll get a discussion on the US dollar/renminbi,” the source added, referring to the Chinese currency, ahead of the talks starting Friday.
The US Treasury said last week that the Chinese and South Korean governments should stop intervening in markets to protect their undervalued currencies and let them rise.
In a semi-annual report to Congress, the Treasury said Beijing had reduced its foreign exchange market intervention on behalf of the yuan, also known as the renminbi (RMB), consistent with promises to Washington.
Even so, the Treasury said the yuan remains “significantly undervalued”, which helps the country maintain its massive trade surplus with the United States.
The euro has also markedly depreciated against the dollar since the start of the year, largely due to the European Central Bank’s sovereign bond purchase programme launched last month.
“But there are no accusations” coming from the US about the euro’s value, the source said.
Several of the eurozone’s partners, including the IMF, had openly called for the QE, or “quantitative easing” sovereign bond purchase scheme, which faces criticism in Germany.
JAKARTA kontan. Perlahan namun pasti, penguatan dollar AS mulai terhenti. Mata uang Negeri Paman Sam ini tumbang terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama dunia.
Mengutip Bloomberg, Kamis (26/3) pukul 17.45, pasangan EUR/USD naik 0,46% dibanding ahri sebelumnya menjadi 1,1021. Pasangan GBP/USD naik 0,38% menjadi 1,4937. Sementara pasangan pasangan USD/JPY turun 0,72% menjadi 118,6300.
Ariston Tjendra, Head of Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures mengatakan, pasangan EUR/USD mulai menunjukkan rally dalam enam hari terakhir. Menurutnya, penguatan EUR/USD disebabkan oleh posisi euro yang sudah melemah cukup panjang terhadap dollar AS.
Selain itu, penguatan EUR/USD juga didukung oleh kontrasnya data ekonomi antara Zona Eropa dengan Amerika Serikat (AS), pada Rabu (25/3) malam.
Untuk diketahui, sentimen bisnis Jerman bulan Maret menunjukkan angka 107,9. Angka ini lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi sebesar 107,4. Sementara tingkat kepercayaan konsumen Jerman bulan Maret juga membukukan angka positif 10. Angka ini melampaui ekspektasi sebesar 9,8. Namun, di lain pihak, data AS cenderung mengecewakan. Data pesanan barang tahan lama (durable goods order) bulan Februari tak diduga meleset minus 1,4%. Angka ini lebih rendah dari estimasi sebesar 0,3%.
“Untuk jangka pendek, EUR/USD masih berpeluang menguat. Dollar melemah sejak pernyataan dovish Janet Yellen pada FOMC tanggal 19 Maret lalu,” jelas Ariston.
Suluh Adil Wicaksono, analis PT Millenium Penata Futures mengungkapkan, pasangan GBP/USD juga tengah bergerak menguat. Penguatan ini tak lepas dari data penjualan ritel Inggris bulan Februari yang mencetak pertumbuhan 0,7%. Angka ini lebih tinggi dari konsensus sebesar 0,4%.
Di sisi lain, pelaku pasar masih wait and see data klaim pengangguran mingguan AS. Berdasarkan prediksi, klaim pengangguran mingguan AS sebesar 291 ribu orang. Angka ini tak berubah dibandingkan periode sebelumnya.
“Jika klaim pengangguran AS sesuai dengan prediksi, artinya positif bagi dollar AS. Pelaku pasar mengartikan positif apabila tidak ada penambahan klaim pengangguran,” terang Suluh.
Alwy Assegaf, analis PT SoeGee Futures menuturkan, pasangan USD/JPY sedang bergerak melemah. Kondisi ini ditengarai oleh semakin kecilnya kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral AS (The Federal Reserve). Padahal, awalnya, kenaikan suku bunga digadang-gadang terjadi pada bulan Juni 2015.
Adapun hal lain yang melukai dollar AS adalah pernyataan pejabat The Fed bagian Chicago, Charles Evans yang mengungkapkan kekhawatirannya atas apresiasi dollar AS. Menurutnya, hal ini dapat menahan laju inflasi.
“Dollar mengakhiri level tertingginya selama 12 tahun terhadap sejumlah mata uang, termasuk yen,” imbuh Alwy.
Sebagai catatan, Kamis (26/3) pukul 17.45, indeks dollar bergerak di level 96,54. Indeks dollar turun 0,56% dibanding hari sebelumnya.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Pembuat kebijakan Federal Reserve James Bullard mengatakan bahwa tingkat bunga nol persen tidak cocok lagi di Amerika Serikat dan penaikan tingkat bunga pada musim panas nanti akan membuat kebijakan menjadi sangat akomodatif.
“Nol persen tidak cocok lagi sebagai suku bunga bagi ekonomi AS,” ujar Bullard dalam diskusi “London City Week” sebagaimana dikutip Reuters, Rabu (25/3/2015).
Dia menambahkan kebijakan moneter akan masih menjadi “sangat akomodatif” kendati bank sentral memulai dengan penaikan tingkat bunga yang rendah “pada suatu waktu di musim panas. The Fed akan menaikkan tingkat bunga yang pertama selama hampir satu dekade.
Sejumlah analis berupaya menebak kapan tanggal penaikan. Namun Gubernur the Fed Janet Yellen pekan lalu mengemuka adanya kekhawatiran soal penguatan dolar akhir-akhir ini.
Bullard merupakan pendukung penaikan tingkat bunga yang dilakukan secara perlahan. Dia memperkirakan ekonomi AS akan tumbuh lebih dari tiga persen dan inflasi tertekan akibat sejumlah faktor yang tidak terkendali.
Tokyo, March 24, 2015 (AFP)
Dollar demand stalled on Tuesday after the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve suggested interest rates would rise more slowly than expected, while the euro won support from hopes for a Greek debt deal.
The greenback changed hands at 119.66 yen in afternoon trading, down from 119.71 yen in New York and 119.91 yen in Tokyo earlier Monday.
The euro bought $1.0919 and 130.69 yen against $1.0945 and 131.02 yen in US trade. However, it was stronger than the $1.0770 and 129.41 yen earlier Monday in Asia.
The dollar took a hit after the Fed’s Stanley Fischer said there would not be a “smooth upward path” for interest rates, which analysts took as further indication that the central bank will take its time before announcing a hike.
Investors are tracking a slate of speeches by Fed officials this week for clues about the timing of a long-awaited rate rise, which many had expected as early as June.
“Fischer’s comments dashed market speculation for a June rate hike and with the Fed stance, expectations are now pushed back to September,” Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities, told Bloomberg News.
“It squashed greenback-buying momentum and led to a correction of one-sided dollar purchases and euro sales. The euro could reclaim $1.10.”
In New York, the European common currency won support as talks in Berlin between the leaders of debt-mired Greece and Europe’s biggest economy Germany ended with no open confrontation on Monday.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged an end to the vicious “stereotypes” and name-calling that have threatened to destroy a bailout deal for Greece and lead it out of the eurozone.
On Monday, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said that the bank was “on track” to reach its declared goal for a programme of bond purchases launched this month in a bid to turn around the faltering eurozone economy.
The dollar was mostly weaker against other Asia-Pacific currencies, falling to Sg$1.3684 from Sg$1.3764 on Monday, to Tw$31.35 from Tw$31.39, to 1,106.18 South Korean won from 1,115.11 won, and to 12,962 Indonesian rupiah from 12,998 rupiah.
The greenback also fell to 62.20 Indian rupees from 62.29 rupees, and to 44.72 Philippine pesos from 44.84 pesos, but it inched up to 32.56 Thai baht from 32.54 baht.
The Australian dollar rose to 78.62 US cents from 78.22 cents, while the Chinese yuan weakened to 19.26 yen from 19.32 yen.
There are five main points to the argument:
- The cycle is surprisingly euro-bullish. The economic surprise index for the euro area has been significantly outperforming the U.S. economic surprise index in 2015, a reversal of 2014.
- U.S. tolerance for dollar strength has its limits. U.S. policymakers may be able to ignore the dollar’s strength if the U.S. economy expands fast enough to generate sufficient internal inflation to offset the disinflation it is importing by virtue of the stronger dollar. This has not been happening, with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation remaining below target.
- Valuations show the U.S. dollar is ‘rich.’ The only currency more overvalued than the U.S. dollar right now is the Swiss franc (see HSBC chart below). Since January 2014, the dollar has moved from No 12 to No. 2 in the rankings.
- Dollar bullishness has become all-pervasive. Positioning for U.S. dollar strength both in the market and in forecasts has become so pervasive it is becoming a constraint on extending the rally.
- The dollar weakens in the early months of a Fed-hike cycle. This one might sound counterintuitive, but HSBC has looked back over the previous four Fed tightening cycles of the past 30 years and discovered that each time, the U.S. dollar has fallen in the period immediately after the first rate rise.
The call does come with a health warning. There are some tail risks that could give the U.S. dollar another leg higher:
- A crash in the Japanese yen as Japan’s policymakers lose control of their currency.
- A collapse of the euro on fears of a euro-zone breakup.
- A dollar surge on new legislation to force repatriation of overseas earnings to the U.S.
- An emerging market foreign exchange crisis triggered by excessive U.S. dollar strength.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pagi ini, Kamis (19/3/2015) terus anjlok dan sudah ke level 97.DASAR DOLLAR INDEX TURUN
Indeks dolar AS seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, pada perdagangan hari ini dibuka turun 0,75% ke 97,815. Pada Rabu (18/3/2015), indeks turun 1,04% ke 98,55.
Pada pk. 07:44 WIB, indeks turun 1,21% ke 97,361.
Posisi indeks dolar AS
|Pk.07:44 WIB(19 Maret)||97,361(-1,21%)|
|Buka( 19 Maret)||97,815(-0,75%)|
Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015
wsj NEW YORK–Raising short-term interest rates off currently near zero levels this year would be a mistake, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Wednesday.
“We should be patient in raising interest rates,” Mr. Evans said. “I think economic conditions will evolve in a way such that it will be appropriate to delay normalizing monetary policy–that is, to hold off on raising short-term rates–until 2016,” he said.
On one side, “economic activity appears to be on a solid, sustainable growth path,” he said. But, “inflation is low and is expected to remain low for some time–and I have serious concerns that inflation will run even lower than I expect,” the central banker said in the text of speech prepared for delivery at an event in Lake Forest, Ill.
Mr. Evans’ belief that the Fed is unlikely to find the conditions it wants to raise rates this year puts the veteran central banker at odds with most of his colleagues, who believe the central bank will be able to increase rates this year. Several officials have said they would like to open the door to considering rate increases starting with the central bank’s mid-June policy meeting.
Mr. Evans and the other Fed officials agree growth and hiring have all been positive, and for many officials, that is enough to support the view rates could begin to increase. But on the other side, the central bank has fallen short of its 2% price target for nearly three years, which argues against any move higher until there is greater clarity inflation gains will move back to levels Fed officials deem desirable.
Mr. Evans’ opposition to rate rises could put him in a dissenting role on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, where he holds a vote this year.
“The FOMC should refrain from raising the federal funds rate, until conditions indicate much greater confidence in forecasts of inflation getting to 2% in a year or two. I see no compelling reason for us to be in a hurry to tighten financial conditions before that time,” Mr. Evans said.
The policy maker believes the Fed won’t get to its 2% price target until some time in 2018, which would indicate the Fed could raise rates at some point in the first half of 2016. Mr. Evans also noted that “there is no great cost even if we were to end up with a period of inflation running moderately above 2%. It would just be the symmetric flip side of our recent below-target inflation experience.”
Although Mr. Evans is concerned about inflation, he’s less worried about growth. He sees 3% activity gains over the next couple of years, and further progress in lowering the unemployment rate.
“With 3% output growth, job gains should remain above the 200,000 mark for some time before gradually moving back down toward its longer-run trend,” he said. The official added that he believes the economy’s natural rate of unemployment–the point where further job gains might start creating inflation–stands at 5%, lower than what many of his colleagues believe. The current jobless rate is 5.7%.
For Mr. Evans, this suggests the job market isn’t as healthy as many now believe. The official also said his confidence inflation was moving back to 2% would be bolstered by a rise in core price measures–they strip out food and energy costs–joined with rising wage gains and increased inflation expectations held by the public.
Wall Street sharply pushed backed its outlook for the first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve by two months, according to the January CNBC Fed Survey. The survey also found lowered expectations for the level of the Fed’s benchmark interest rate.
The first hike is now seen in September, versus July in the prior survey. The Fed Funds rate is now forecast at 73 basis points, down 10 bps from the December survey. The 33 respondents now see a Fed Funds rate of 1.75 percent in December 2016, down almost 40 bps from that forecast in September of this year.
“The FOMC is in a terrible spot here,” John Donaldson of Haverford Trust wrote in response to the survey. “They need to begin to normalize rates so they have the full range of tools available if/when they need them in the next cycle. The markets seem to think that even adjusting policy rates to 1% is equivalent to an economy-choking tightening.”
While the survey respondents—top money managers, investment strategists and economists—pushed back their outlook for Fed tightening, they’re maintaining a relatively upbeat view of U.S. economic growth. In 2015 gross domestic product is seen rising 2.8 percent from 2014, and accelerating to 3 percent in 2016. That’s down from the month’s survey by 8 basis point for 2015 and 3 basis points for 2016.
“Despite all the cross-currents and heightened volatility in global financial and commodity markets, U.S. economic growth prospects remain strong,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics.
The probability of a recession in the next 12 months—just 13 percent—dropped to the lowest in the 3½ years the question has been asked. It’s been as high as 36 percent.
Some economists believe the better economic numbers will lead to earlier Fed rate hikes than the market currently believe. John Ryding of RDQ Economics said “markets are underestimating the degree to which falling unemployment will push the Fed to hiking rates and overestimating the influence of factors such as events in the Euro area.” He believes the Fed will hike rates in May.
Looking across the Atlantic, nearly three-quarters of respondents said the European Central Bank’s recent announcement of a 60 billion euro monthly quantitative easing program was “more aggressive” than they originally forecast. Views about the effects of QE in Europe were largely upbeat with 94 percent saying it will lead to higher European stock prices and nearly 70 percent believing it will boost U.S. equity values. About two-thirds of respondents say it will increase European growth and inflation.
“There is much more longer-term upside ahead from Eurozone QE. The bull market in stocks is not over,” said David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors.
And economist Allen Sinai added, “The best is yet to come in global stock markets. The ECB action was absolutely brilliant monetary policymaking.”
(Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, the bond manager who joined Janus Capital Group Inc. last year, said the strong dollar will have “negative consequences” and will lower the Federal Reserve’s expectations for inflation.
“The strong dollar that used to be touted by Treasury Secretaries in the past 15 or 20 years has some negative consequences,” Gross said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview with Tom Keene and Michael McKee. “Basically these countries are exporting their deflation, and we’re importing their deflation and it focuses and propels deflation forward.”
Gross, 70, became a billionaire and earned his reputation as the mutual fund industry’s bond king by building Pacific Investment Management Co. into a $2 trillion money manager, at its peak, helped by prescient calls on the market. Gross reiterated today that the Fed will start to raise interest rates in June, although rates will be stuck below historical averages for several years.
Gross, who now manages the $1.5 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Fund, said he likes Japanese and European stocks as markets in the U.S. have reached a plateau.
“The attraction is in Japan and euro-land simply because of their QEs, lots of money” he said, referring to programs known as quantitative easing. “That money, as we know, in the United States, propelled equity markets forward and I think euroland is cheap and Japan is cheap on that basis.”
He forecast the rally in those markets will continue for another 12 to 18 months “before the funny money itself runs out.”
reuters: Many emerging economies have been banking on weaker currencies to revitalise economic growth. Oil’s 25 percent fall in dollar terms this year should also help. The problem however is the dollar’s strength which is leading to a general tightening of monetary conditions worldwide, more so in countries where central banks are intervening to prevent their currencies from falling too much.
Michael Howell, managing director of the CrossBorder Capital consultancy estimates the negative effect of the stronger dollar on global liquidity (in simple terms, the amount of capital available for investment and spending) outweighs the positives from falling oil prices by a ratio of 10 to 1. Not only does it raise funding costs for non-U.S. banks and companies, it also usually forces other central banks to keep monetary policy tight, especially in countries with high inflation or external debt levels. Howell says:
If you get a strong dollar and intervention by EM cbanks what it means is monetary tightening…The big decision is: do they allow currencies to devalue or do they defend them? But when they use reserves to protect their currencies, there is an implicit policy tightening.
The tightening happens because central bank dollar sales tend to suck out supply of the local currency from markets, tightening liquidity. That effectively drives up the cost of money, as banks and companies scramble for cash to meet their daily commitments. Central banks can of course offset interventions via so-called sterilisations – for instance when they buy dollars to curb their currencies’ strength, they can issue bonds to suck up the excess cash from the market. To ease the tight money supply problem they can in theory print more cash to supply banks. But while many emerging central banks did sterilise interventions in the post-crisis years when their currencies were appreciating, they are less likely to do so when they are trying to stem depreciation, says UBS strategist Manik Narain. So what is happening is that (according to Narain):
Markets are forcing central banks into supporting growth or the currency. You absolutely have to sacrifice growth as we have seen in places like Turkey where liquidity has impacted the growth profile
The silver lining could yet be oil.
Despite a clear economic recovery in the United States, real wages remain below pre-crisis levels, meaning the U.S. consumer has so far been reluctant to open his wallet too wide. So developing countries have been unable to significantly boost exports of goods and services. The falling oil price could change that as it will improve household budgets in the United States hugely – one study from Citi estimates the global windfall so far at $660 billion, which includes a $600 per-household bonus in the United States. A separate study from Deutsche Bank says every one-cent drop in oil prices means a $1 billion annual decline in energy spending by Americans.
That cash may be used on consumer goods, including those imported from the developing world. Some fund managers are betting on that to happen
Bisnis.com, WASHINGTON – Gubernur Federal Reserve Janet Yellen menilai tren pelonggaran moneter yang ditempuh sejumlah bank sentral tidak tepat disebut sebagai perang kurs.
Yellen mengatakan kebijakan moneter sangat lumrah dipergunakan untuk memperbaiki kondisi perekonomian domestik. Penggunaan kebijakan tersebut bisa berdampak pada nilai tukar. Namun, menurut saya hal itu tak bisa disebut sebagai manipulasi mata uang, katanya di hadapan Kongres Amerika Serikat, Selasa (24/2/2015) waktu setempat.
Sebelumnya, sederet bank sentral dari Eropa hingga Australia kompak memangkas suku bunga acuan di tengah lesunya perekonomian global. Hal itu lantas memicu dugaan bahwa langkah tersebut sengaja ditempuh untuk melemahkan nilai tukar domestik dan memoles daya saing di perdagangan internasional alih-alih menggenjot pertumbuhan.
Yellen mengatakan manipulasi mata uang seharusnya justru dihindari oleh bank sentral. Bentuk manipulasi seperti itu tak sepatutnya dilakukan dan harus diatasi. Banyak faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai mata uang termasuk laju pertumbuhan dan arus modal.
Dia menilai penerapan sanksi untuk negara yang diduga melakukan manipulasi mata uang bisa menghambat efektivitas kebijakan moneter. Belakangan, pemerintah AS memang tengah membahas beleid tentang sanksi tehadap rekan dagang yang disinyalir berlaku curang terhadap nilai mata uangnya.
Langkah itu ditempuh karena pemerintah Negeri Paman Sam merasa dirugikan dengan perlemahan mata uang global yang kian melambungkan nilai dolar. Tren tersebut mengikis daya saing produk asal AS karena dipandang lebih mahal. Keluhan juga datang dari berbagai pihak, terutama dari sektor industri manufaktur.
Menteri Keuangan AS bahkan telah mendesak negara anggota G-20 pada pertemuan di Istanbul tengah bulan ini agar menghentikan aksi melemahkan mata uang tersebut.
Namun, di tengah upaya tersebut the Fed justru diduga bersiap memasuki arena perang kurs. Perdebatan terkait hal itu dipicu oleh sikap Bank Sentral AS yang terus menunda kenaikan suku bunga acuannya.
Menanggapi hal tersebut, anggota kongres perwakilan dari Michigan Sander Levin mengatakan manipulasi nilai tukar harus ditindaklanjuti mengingat hal itu termasuk dalam perjanjian perdagangan AS, yakni Trans-Pasific Partnership(Kerja Sama Lintas Pasifik). Praktek itu, katanya, telah merugikan perdagangan dan berdampak terhadap jutaan pekerja.
Bloomberg mencatat, bulan lalu indeks dolar AS melejit ke level tertinggi sejak April 2009. Bahkan, apresiasi dolar terhadap euro dan yen selama setahun terakhir mencapai masing-masing 21% dan 16%. Dalam rilis notulensiFed Open Market Committee(FOMCminutes) Januari, the Fed menilai penguatangreenbackadalah faktor pemicu kontraksi ekspor.
Kepala analis mata uang global dari Brown Brothers Harriman & Co Brown Brothers Marc Chandler mengatakan ada perbedaan antara pemangkasan suku bunga untuk mendorong pertumbuhan dengan depresiasi mata uang domestik dengan sengaja.
Ini adalah permainan yang berakhir negatif. Semuanya kalah dan tak menstimulus apapun karena hanya meminjam permintaan dari negara lain, katanya.
NEW YORK project syndicate ROUBINI – Monetary policy has become increasingly unconventional in the last six years, with central banks implementing zero-interest-rate policies, quantitative easing, credit easing, forward guidance, and unlimited exchange-rate intervention. But now we have come to the most unconventional policy tool of them all: negative nominal interest rates.
Such rates currently prevail in the eurozone, Switzerland, Denmark, and Sweden. And it is not just short-term policy rates that are now negative in nominal terms: about $3 trillion of assets in Europe and Japan, at maturities as long as ten years (in the case of Swiss government bonds), now have negative interest rates.
At first blush, this seems absurd: Why would anyone want to lend money for a negative nominal return when they could simply hold on to the cash and at least not lose in nominal terms?
In fact, investors have long accepted real (inflation-adjusted) negative returns. When you hold a checking or current account in your bank at a zero interest rate – as most people do in advanced economies – the real return is negative (the nominal zero return minus inflation): a year from now, your cash balances buy you less goods than they do today. And if you consider the fees that many banks impose on these accounts, the effective nominal return was already negative even before central banks went for negative nominal rates.
In other words, negative nominal rates merely make your return more negative than it already was. Investors accept negative returns for the convenience of holding cash balances, so, in a sense, there is nothing new about negative nominal interest rates.
Moreover, if deflation were to become entrenched in the eurozone and other parts of the world, a negative nominal return could be associated with a positive real return. That has been the story for the last 20 years in Japan, owing to persistent deflation and near-zero interest rates on many assets.
One still might think that it makes sense to hold cash directly, rather than holding an asset with a negative return. But holding cash can be risky, as Greek savers, worried about the safety of their bank deposits, learned after stuffing it into their mattresses and walls: the number of armed home robberies rose sharply, and some cash was devoured by rodents. So, if you include the costs of holding cash safely – and include the benefits of check writing – it makes sense to accept a negative return.
Beyond retail savers, banks that are holding cash in excess of required reserves have no choice but to accept the negative interest rates that central banks impose; indeed, they could not hold, manage, and transfer those excess reserves if they were held as cash, rather than in a negative-yielding account with the central bank. Of course, this is true only so long as the nominal interest rate is not too negative; otherwise, switching to cash – despite the storage and safety costs – starts to make more sense.
But why would investors accept a negative nominal return for three, five, or even ten years? In Switzerland and Denmark, investors want exposure to a currency that is expected to appreciate in nominal terms. If you were holding Swiss franc assets at a negative nominal return right before its central bank abandoned its euro peg in mid-January, you could have made a 20% return overnight; a negative nominal return is a small price to pay for a large capital gain.
And yet negative bonds yields are also occurring in countries and regions where the currency is depreciating and likely to depreciate further, including Germany, other parts of the eurozone core, and Japan. So, why are investors holding such assets?
Many long-term investors, like insurance companies and pension funds, have no alternative, as they are required to hold safer bonds. Of course, negative returns make their balance sheets shakier: a defined-benefit pension plan needs positive returns to break even, and when most of its assets yield a negative nominal return, such results become increasingly difficult to achieve. But, given such investors’ long-term liabilities (claims and benefits), their mandate is to invest mostly in bonds, which are less risky than stocks or other volatile assets. Even if their nominal returns are negative, they must defer to safety.
Moreover, in a “risk-off” environment, when investors are risk-averse or when equities and other risky assets are subject to market and/or credit uncertainty, it may be better to hold negative-yielding bonds than riskier and more volatile assets.
Over time, of course, negative nominal and real returns may lead savers to save less and spend more. And that is precisely the goal of negative interest rates: In a world where supply outstrips demand and too much saving chases too few productive investments, the equilibrium interest rate is low, if not negative. Indeed, if the advanced economies were to suffer from secular stagnation, a world with negative interest rates on both short- and long-term bonds could become the new normal.
To avoid that, central banks and fiscal authorities need to pursue policies to jump-start growth and induce positive inflation. Paradoxically, that implies a period of negative interest rates to induce savers to save less and spend more. But it also requires fiscal stimulus, especially public investment in productive infrastructure projects, which yield higher returns than the bonds used to finance them. The longer such policies are postponed, the longer we may inhabit the inverted world of negative nominal interest rates.
NEW YORK – Mata uang dolar menguat terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama pada Selasa waktu setempat atau Rabu pagi karena ekspektasi pasar bahwa Federal Reserve akan menaikkan suku bunga pada pertengahan tahun.
Seperti dilansir Xinhua, Rabu (11/5/2015), bank sentral AS telah mempertahankan suku mendekati nol selama hampir tujuh tahun untuk meningkatkan perekonomian yang lesu.
Richard Fisher, Presiden Federal Reserve Dallas, mengatakan The Fed harus mulai menaikkan suku bunga sebelum ekonomi mencapai lapangan kerja penuh guna menghindari timbulnya resesi.
Indeks dolar AS naik 0,32 persen menjadi 94,559 pada akhir perdagangan atau tertinggi sejak September 2003.
Sementara itu, euro merosot ke terendah 12 tahun terhadap dolar AS di tengah mulainya program pelonggaran moneter oleh Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) dan meningkatnya kekhawatiran atas masalah utang Yunani.
Pada akhir perdagangan di New York, euro turun menjadi 1,0699 dolar dari 1,0858 dolar di sesi sebelumnya.
Pound Inggris turun menjadi 1,5073 dolar dari 1,5131 dolar. Dolar Australia turun tipis ke 0,7617 dolar dari 0,7713 dolar. Dolar AS dibeli 121,10 yen Jepang, lebih rendah dari 121,18 yen pada sesi sebelumnya, demikian Xinhua.
JAKARTA— Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pagi ini, Rabu (11/3/2015) masih terus menguat, setelah sempat dibuka melemah tipis.
Indeks dolar AS seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, pada perdagangan hari ini dibuka turun 0,08% ke 98,538. Pada Selasa (10/3/2015), indeks naik1,06% ke 98,618.
Pada pk. 07:41 WIB, indeks naik 0,01% ke 98,63, dan bergerak di kisaran 98,493—98,634.
Posisi indeks dolar AS
( 11 Maret)
Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015
Market Drivers For March 13, 2015
- Sideways markets as little news to drive trade
- NZD Business Manufacturing improves
- Nikkei 1.39% Europe .05%
- Oil $47/bbl
- Gold $1158/oz.
Europe and Asia:
NZD: Business Man 55.9 vs. 50.7
GBP: Construction Output
CAD: Unemployment 8:30
Its been a quiet and lackluster night of trade in the currency market with the US dollar resuming its uptrend after yesterday’s correction. The greenback was up across the board in morning European dealing strengthening as the session went on as demand for dollars continues unabated.
The markets clearly remain in a momentum mode as even disappointing fundamental data like yesterday’s Retail Sales report is unable to slow the dollar rally for more than a day. Yet three months of weak consumer spending numbers should give even the heartiest of dollar bulls pause as it may cause the Fed to hold off on any decision to tighten until September at the earliest .
As BOE Governor Mark Carney has pointed out 16 out 18 industrialized nations have seen their inflation reading run below expectations as deflationary forces continue to exert pressure on the global economy. Indeed, all of the central bank actions in the G-20 universe since the start of the year have been on the easing side and its difficult to imagine that the Fed would stand alone on the other side of the scale, especially since US consumer demand is anything but torrid at the moment.
Next week’s FOMC meeting could provide some insight into the committee’s current thinking and given Ms.Yellen’s predilection for caution the statement may temper expectations of an imminent rate hike this summer. With the market now very likely long dollars, some corrective moves could be in the offing as positioning and sentiment are clearly getting skewed.
Still it is very hard to get in front of the dollar tsunami as speculative flows are clearly pouring into the greenback. However with EUR/USD now at key 1.0500 support and cable just below the 1.5000 support some bargain hunting may come into the market especially if the Fed signals further “patience” ahead. INVESTING.COM
The dollar weakened broadly Monday after tepid US data left the market cautious ahead of a Federal Reserve monetary policy decision this week.The market generally is expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s policy arm, will remove the “patient” language regarding an increase in interest rates from its statement Wednesday after a two-day meeting.A batch of mediocre US economic indicators on Monday supported the view that the Fed’s rate hike could possibly come later rather than as soon as June, when many Fed watchers have expected it.According to Fed data, manufacturing struggled in February, holding back overall industrial production that only rose 0.1 percent in the month because of heavy heating demand at utilities during unusually cold winter weather.Reports on homebuilder sentiment and regional manufacturing also were weaker than expected.”Softer US data drove the US dollar lower against most of the major currencies,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management.”This has led investors to believe that the Fed is going to be more cautious on Wednesday, even though we think they will remove the word ‘patient.'”The dollar pulled back from a 12-year high against the euro, which fetched $1.056 compared with $1.0489 late Friday.Following the FOMC statement, the Fed also will release its latest forecasts for US economic growth, unemployment and inflation and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference.”The statement and Chairwoman Yellen will emphasize that the timing of a tightening will be data-dependent in an attempt to prevent the prospect of a hike at the mid-June FOMC becoming a certainty in the market mindset,” said XE Currency Blog.
<pre> 2100 GMT Monday Friday
EUR/USD 1.0565 1.0489
EUR/JPY 128.21 127.38
EUR/CHF 1.0645 1.0542
EUR/GBP 0.7125 0.7115
USD/JPY 121.35 121.44
USD/CHF 1.0076 1.0051
GBP/USD 1.4828 1.4742
</pre>WE Online, Jakarta – Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan pernyataan sementara dari Bank Sentral AS (The Fed) yang akan melakukan pendekatan waspada terhadap penyesuaian suku bunga acuan memberikan ketenangan pelaku pasar.”Menurut kami, pandangan itu cukup bisa menyejukkan pasar dan itu bisa terlihat pada pergerakan rupiah pada hari ini (Kamis). Tentu kita akan jaga terus nilai rupiah dan mengantisipasi pertemuan FOMC selanjutnya,” katanya di Jakarta, Kamis (19/3/2015).Bambang mengatakan keputusan Federal Open Market Committe (FOMC) The Fed untuk lebih berhati-hati dalam merumuskan kebijakan, berarti masih ada ketidakpastian mengenai waktu yang tepat dan berapa kenaikan suku bunga tersebut.”AS masih ingin melihat bagaimana perbaikan ekonomi di sana, sehingga ada kemungkinan kenaikan Fed Rate tidak sampai 100 basis poin seperti yang diperkirakan. Timingnya juga mungkin tidak akan secepat yang diperkirakan, Juni atau Juli,” katanya.Menurut dia, sikap The Fed tersebut telah mempertimbangkan kondisi internal dalam negeri, dimana indikator makro seperti pertumbuhan ekonomi AS masih memperlihatkan laju yang moderat dan belum membaik seutuhnya. “Tentunya ekonomi AS juga harus melihat kalau dolar menguat terlalu cepat, akan merugikan ekonomi mereka. Mereka harus menghitung bahwa kenaikan tingkat bunga dolar harus memperhatikan kondisi dalam negeri,” jelas Bambang.Sementara, nilai tukar rupiah yang ditransaksikan antarbank di Jakarta, Kamis sore, bergerak menguat sebesar 120 poin menjadi Rp13.035 per dolar AS dibandingkan sebelumnya pada posisi Rp13.155 per dolar AS. Analis PT Platon Niaga Berjangka Lukman Leong di Jakarta, menjelaskan bahwa meredanya ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS (fed fund rate) menjadi salah satu faktor penguatan mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar AS.”Ekspektasi pasar berubah ketika The Fed menyatakan belum akan menaikan suku bunganya dalam waktu dekat menyusul data ekonomi AS yang masih bervariasi,” katanya.Pernyataan the Fed tersebut, menurut dia, mendorong investor kembali masuk ke pasar negara-negara berkembang, salah satunya Indonesia, yang masih dinilai atraktif pelaku pasar dalam memberikan imbal hasil investasi. Kurs dolar AS merosot terhadap mata uang utama lainnya pada Rabu (Kamis pagi WIB), karena Bank Sentral AS (The Fed) dalam pernyataan kebijakannya memutuskan untuk tetap berhati-hati dalam menaikkan suku bunganya.Bank sentral AS menghapus janji untuk tetap “bersabar” tentang kenaikan suku bunganya, dalam pernyataan yang dirilis setelah pertemuan kebijakan Federal Open Market Committe (FOMC) selama dua hari, pada Rabu (18/3/2015). Namun, Ketua The Fed Janet Yellen menekankan dalam konferensi pers berikutnya bahwa “hanya karena kami menghapus kata bersabar dari pernyataan itu tidak berarti kami akan menjadi tidak sabar”.Bank sentral AS akan memutuskan waktu yang “tepat” untuk menaikkan suku bunga setelah melihat “perbaikan lebih lanjut” di pasar tenaga kerja dan “cukup yakin” bahwa inflasi akan kembali ke target dua persen dalam jangka menengah. (Ant)Editor: Achmad Fauzi