D1V1DEN gw @bbr1 … 1003201empat

Siap-siap Melahap Saham BBRI

gw TAMBAH VOLUME @harga saham BBRI sejak 26 Februari 201empat
Oleh: Jagad Ananda
pasarmodal – Sabtu, 8 Maret 2014 | 15:01 WIB

INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Dalam soal aset, Bank BRI masih kalah jauh dengan Bank Mandiri. BRI per 31 Desember 2013 hanya beraset Rp626 triliun, sementara pesaingnya, yang sekarang masih menjadi raja, menguasai aset Rp733 triliun.

Tapi kendati demikian, sudah bertahun-tahun lamanya Bank BRI muncul sebagai bank berpenghasilan terbesar, Dan tentu saja, dengan laba bersih terbesar juga. Tahun lalu bank ini membukukan laba bersih Rp21,16 triliun. Bandingkan dengan laba bersih yang diraih Mandiri yang hanya Rp18,2 triliun.

Dengan performa yang kinclong ini, tak heran kalau saham BRI (BBRI) selalu mendapat rekomendasi beli dari kalangan analis. Tak tanggung-tanggung, kalangan analis asing maupun lokal, menargetkan sahamnya akan mencapai harga Rp11.000–11.500. Itu berarti, dibandingkan harga yang terbentuk pada Jumat (7/3/2014) kemarin yang mencapai Rp9.250, masih ada potensi penguatan sebesar Rp1.750–2.250 atau 19% hingga 24%.

Sebuah perhitungan yang boleh dibilang wajar. Sebab di kelasnya BBRI masih tergolong murah, dengan price to ratio (P/E) 9,7 kali dan EPS (earning price ratio/pertumbuhan laba per saham) 28%. Bandingkan dengan Bank Mandiri yang P/E-nya 11 kali dan EPS 20%.

Diperkirakan, angka laba bersih ini pun akan bertumbuh di tahun-tahun berikutnya. Tahun ini misalnya, Bank BRI diprediksi akan meraup keuntungan bersih Rp24,89 triliun dan Rp28,4 triliun di tahun depan.

Angka itu ada kemungkinan tercapai, karena berbagai aksi korporasi terus menerus yang dilakukan perseroan. Apalagi dengan keuntungan yang cukup tebal, yang membuat bank ini lebih leluasa dalam melakukan ekspansi.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA–PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk., akan membagikan dividen sebesar Rp6,3 triliun atau payout ratio 30% dari laba bersih Rp21,1 triliun.

Direktur Keuangan BRI Achmad Baiquni mengakui sebenarnya manajemen telah mengajukan rasio pembayaran dividen (dividend payout ratio) di bawah 30% kepada pemerintah sebagai pemegang saham mayoritas.

“Saya yakin dividen kami juga 30% karena dua bank BUMN yang sudah RUPS juga 30%, Kami melihat kebutuhan pemerintah sepertinya tidak berbeda jauh dengan 30%,” katanya saat kunjungan ke Redaksi Bisnis Indonesia, Selasa (4/3/3014).

Kendati perintaan penurunan dividen payout ratio tidak direstu pemerintah, manajemen BRI optimistis bisnis tahun ini tidak akan terganggu.

Pertumbuhan penyaluran kredit tahun ini yang diharapkan tidak terlalu tinggi seperti keinginan Bank Indonesia dimaksudkan agar terjadi stabilisasi keuangan, baik bunga kredit maupun terhadap rupiah.

Untuk itu, sambungnya, dividen payout ratio yang mencapai 30% itu diyakini tidak akan mempengaruhi rasio kecukupan modal (Capital Adequacy Ratio/CAR). Hingga akhir Desember 2013, CAR BRI mencapai 16,99%, dari sebelumnya 16,95% pada 2012.

CAR tersebut, katanya, masih mencukupi untuk ekspansi dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun ke depan. Dia berharap, pada tahun-tahun mendatang, pemerintah dapat menurunkan payout ratio agar perseroan dapat tumbuh lebih kencang.

“Sebenarnya pemerintah sadar bahwa bank perlu ditambah modal untuk ekspansi,” paparnya.

Pemegang saham dua bank BUMN lain, PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk., dan PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk., memutuskan untuk membagikan dividen dengan payout ratio 30% dari total laba bersih periode 2013.

Editor : Ismail Fahmi

Indonesia Earnings Lure Credit Suisse to Stocks: Southeast Asia
By Harry Suhartono and Weiyi Lim – Mar 3, 2014
Indonesia’s best start to an earnings season in six years is adding fuel to Asia’s second-biggest stocks rally as forecasters from Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) predict further gains ahead.

About 72 percent of companies in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) that posted fourth-quarter results so far have surpassed analyst estimates, the highest proportion at this stage of a reporting season since 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Jakarta gauge rose 9.1 percent in the three months through last week, the region’s second-largest gain after Vietnam’s VN Index. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.9 percent.

The rally, sparked by Indonesia’s accelerating economy and shrinking current-account gap, may extend another 13 percent this year as sales and earnings growth quicken, according to Credit Suisse. Foreign investors have purchased more than $800 million of shares in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy this year, the most among seven Asian markets tracked by Bloomberg.

“I am super-overweight” Indonesia after increasing holdings at the start of February, Alan Richardson, whose Samsung Asean Equity Fund outperformed 97 percent of peers tracked by Bloomberg during the past three years, said by phone from Hong Kong. “The fourth-quarter results are outperforming expectations surprisingly, especially in the banking sector, which is reassuring because it’s critical the financial system remains healthy.”

Mandiri Earnings

The fund had 7.8 percent of its assets invested in Indonesia, and more than one-third of the total in banking stocks at the end of September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Indonesia stocks gauge declined 0.8 percent to 4,584.21 at the close in Jakarta today after data showed the country’s trade balance swung to $431 million deficit in January. Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s Crimea region also spurred investors to shun riskier assets.

Fourth-quarter earnings at PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Indonesia’s largest lender by revenue, and

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)

, the most profitable, were at least 20 percent higher than the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Net income at PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF), the nation’s largest retailer by market value, beat forecasts by 5.6 percent.

The 72 percent of companies that topped estimates so far this year compares with an average 47 percent two months into earnings seasons during the past six years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Election Spending

Earnings at lenders may rise 15 percent in 2014, while cyclical consumer companies may report a 17 percent gain, as spending during the country’s elections this year boosts revenue, Joshua Tanja, the head of research at PT UBS Securities Indonesia, said in an interview on Feb. 25.

Indonesia will hold parliamentary elections in April and a presidential poll in July to replace President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose final term ends this year. Political parties typically boost advertising spending while distributing food, consumer staples and t-shirts to supporters before polls.

“There are early signs that corporate performance for Indonesia may have bottomed in the third quarter,” Jahanzeb Naseer, an analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote in a report dated Feb. 17. Naseer advised shifting to industries that rely most on economic growth, such as banks and consumer discretionary companies, from utilities and phone stocks.

Indonesia’s economy expanded 5.72 percent from a year earlier in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with 5.63 percent the previous quarter. The country’s current-account deficit is expected to narrow to 2.5 percent this year, from about 3.3 percent last year, according to the central bank.

Expensive Valuations

The measure reached 4.4 percent in the second quarter of 2013 and helped spur a selloff in Indonesian assets during the second half as the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled plans to reduce monetary stimulus. The Jakarta gauge dropped 11 percent in the final two quarters of last year.

Indonesian earnings may come under pressure this year as interest-rate increases by the central bank in 2013 weigh on the economy. Gross domestic product may expand as little as 5.5 percent this year, which would be the slowest pace since 2009, Finance Minister Chatib Basri said on Feb. 23.

It’s too early to buy Indonesian shares after valuations increased this year, according to UBS’s Tanja. The Jakarta Composite gauge is valued at 13.9 times projected 12-month earnings, up from 12.4 in mid-December and 35 percent more expensive than the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has a multiple of 12.4.

“Our advice to clients is don’t get too excited about Indonesia,” Tanja said.

Rupiah Rally

The nation’s shrinking current-account gap has eased pressure on its currency and bolstered investor confidence, according to JPMorgan, which raised its recommendation on Indonesian shares to overweight from neutral on Feb. 19.

The rupiah has rebounded 4.8 percent against the dollar this year, the biggest gain among developing-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg, after tumbling 21 percent last year. Indonesian shares have lured net buying from foreign investors during 17 of the last 18 days, pushing inflows in February to the highest in 12 months.

“We expect the market and the currency to continue to be driven by declining perception of tail-risk,” JPMorgan strategists including Adrian Mowat wrote on Feb. 19.

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