rupiaaa(9201)aaH … 110112

JAKARTA – Pemerintah berhasil menjual obligasi dolar AS seri RI10142 sebesar US$ 1,75 miliar dengan kelebihan permintaan (oversubscribed) mencapai 2,06 kali. Imbal hasil (yield) surat utang itu ditetapkan 5,37%, mengalahkan yield surat utang dari negara-negara maju.

Menteri Keuangan Agus Martowardojo mengatakan, dengan yield sebesar 5,37%, imbal hasil dari obligasi global itu telah mengalahkan yield surat utang dari negara-negara maju. Sebelumnya, Italia terpaksa menerbitkan obligasi dengan menawarkan yield di atas 7%.

“Kami sudah mendiskusikan surat utang yang barusan dikeluarkan, dengan yield berhasil mengalahkan negara maju. Likuiditas dunia cukup ketat, perbankan di Eropa ingin mencari dana, tapi kemudian pemilik dana memilih Indonesia,” ujar Menkeu di Jakarta, Selasa (10/1).

Besaran yield tersebut juga telah turun drastis dibandingkan dengan surat utang serupa yang pernah diterbitkan pemerintah empat tahun lalu. Pada 2008, yield obligasi global Indonesia dengan tenor 30 tahun mencapai 8,7%.

S. Korea May Join Indonesia Holding Rates
By Eunkyung Seo and Novrida Manurung – Jan 10, 2012

South Korea and Indonesia will probably keep interest rates unchanged this week as a drop in their currencies risks heightening inflationary pressures even as the faltering global economy undermines growth prospects.

All 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the Bank of Korea to keep the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate unchanged at 3.25 percent on Jan. 13 for a seventh straight month, the longest pause since tightening began in July 2010. Bank Indonesia will keep the reference rate at 6 percent tomorrow, 13 of 18 economists surveyed predict, while the rest see a quarter-percentage-point cut.

Europe’s protracted sovereign-debt crisis has hurt Asian exports and caused growth to slow from China to Singapore, with the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il last month compounding risks to regional economies. While the Philippines has said it may ease monetary policy this quarter, elevated inflation may stay South Korea’s hand and a weakening currency may prevent a resumption in Indonesian rate cuts.

“The European fiscal crisis is dragging on Asia and now possible political instability in North Korea is adding to risks,” said Lee Sang Jae, an economist at Hyundai Securities Co. in Seoul. “Still, many central banks including South Korea will likely hold rates as they also grapple with volatile foreign-exchange rates and high inflation.”

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged for a 12th straight month, it said in a statement today. The bank held the reverse repurchase rate at 8.5 percent and the repurchase rate at 7 percent.
Currencies Fall

The faltering growth outlook has caused most Asian currencies to fall in the past six months, with the South Korean won declining more than 8 percent as weaker overseas demand eroded the earnings of exporters from LG Electronics Inc. to Posco, the world’s third-biggest steelmaker. The won fell 0.3 percent to 1,159.6 against the dollar as of 11:28 a.m. in Seoul today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Indonesia’s rupiah dropped more than 7 percent against the dollar as the central bank lowered borrowing costs in October and November before pausing last month. The rupiah weakened 0.5 percent to 9,210 a dollar as of 9:28 a.m. in Jakarta.

In Australia, a report showing retail sales unexpectedly stalled in November spurred declines in the nation’s currency on Jan. 9, as traders increased bets that the central bank will cut interest rates again after quarter-percentage-point cuts on Nov. 1 and Dec. 6.
Exports May Ease

China’s central bank lowered the required reserve ratio for banks for the first time in almost three years in December to encourage lending, shifting its stance from fighting inflation as price pressures eased.

Malaysia’s trade ministry may say today exports rose 12.9 percent in November from a year earlier, after climbing 15.8 percent the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Germany may say today its economy grew 3 percent last year after a 3.6 percent expansion in 2010, according to the median estimate of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Spain’s industrial production probably dropped 5.4 percent in November from a year earlier after a 4 percent decline in October, while the U.K. may say its goods-trade deficit widened in November to 8.4 billion pounds ($13 billion) from 7.56 billion pounds in October, other surveys showed before reports today.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book survey, and the Mortgage Bankers Association will give data on mortgage applications for the week ended Jan. 6.
Growth Threats

The Bank of Korea’s board has highlighted potential threats to growth from instability in the North following the death of Kim Jong Il, which was announced on Dec. 19. The leader’s son Kim Jong Un, thought to be under 30, succeeded as ruler.

“Geopolitical risks” relating to the North have the potential to escalate, unnerving financial markets and causing consumption and investment in the South to contract “severely,” the bank said in a Dec. 29 statement. Officials pledged to monitor closely the North Korean situation and Europe’s debt crisis, that they said contribute to “substantial” downside risks for Asia’s fourth-biggest economy.

“The leadership transition in North Korea has been smooth thus far, but geopolitical risks remain, as ever,” said Ma Tieying, an economist with DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. “The risk is that North Korea may provoke a confrontation with the South, should the new leader find it necessary to enhance his political standing and strengthen his grip on power.”

Accelerating inflation may limit the scope for immediate rate cuts to protect growth. South Korea’s consumer prices rose 4.2 percent from a year earlier in November and December, exceeding the central bank’s target limit of 4 percent and quickening from 3.6 percent in October.
Case for Cut

South Korea’s unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 3.1 percent last month as hiring by the health, welfare service, wholesale and retail sectors helped offset the effect of slowing export growth on the job market.

“Sticky inflation” is the only thing in the way of a South Korean rate cut, said Ronald Man, a Hong Kong-based analyst at HSBC Holdings Plc. “Contraction lights have started to flash, even if they are not bright red for now. The case for a rate cut by the end of the first quarter has therefore grown.”

In Indonesia, central bank Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said this week the government’s plan to limit the sale of subsidized fuel may add as much as 0.9 percentage point to inflation this year. He said earlier this month Bank Indonesia remains mindful of inflation even as it sees room to cut interest rates further if needed.

The rupiah’s decline has also threatened to raise import costs in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, even as inflation slowed for a fourth straight month in December to 3.79 percent, the lowest level since March 2010.

“We believe that current pressures over the Indonesian rupiah will prevent the central bank from cutting the rate in January,” said Eric Alexander Sugandi, a Jakarta-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. “Bank Indonesia still has room to cut rates in March as it needs to anticipate the impact of the global slowdown on domestic activity.”
Munculnya spekulasi bank sentral bakal memangkas suku bunga, memicu otot rupiah kian lunglai, hari ini.

Mata uang Garuda keok untuk hari yang ketiga, setelah tergerus 0,5% ke posisi Rp 9.201 per dollar AS pada pukul 9.54 di Jakarta. Rupiah sempat menyentuh Rp 9.233 per dollar AS pada 9 Januari lalu. Ini merupakan level terlemah sejak 29 November.

Beberapa ekonom memprediksi adanya peluang penurunan suku bunga seiring inflasi Desember melandai untuk bulan yang keempat. Pada pekan lalu, Deputi Gubernur Bank Indonesia Hartadi Sarwono juga menyatakan, bank sentral melihat ruang untuk mengurangi biaya pinjaman jika diperlukan.

Meski begitu, 8 dari 13 ekonom yang disurvei Bloomberg masih memprediksi bank sentral akan mempertahankan bunga acuan, pada pertemuan besok. Namun, lima ekonom lainnya melihat potensi pemangkasan bunga sebesar 25 basis poin.

“Bank Indonesia belakangan cukup agresif menurunkan suku bunga. Mungkin akan ada kejutan di mana bank sentral kembali memangkas bunga acuan,” ujar Wisnu Varathan, ekonom Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd, di Singapura.



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