Indonesian Inflation Slows for Fourth Month
By Widya Utami and Novrida Manurung – Jan 2, 2012
Indonesia’s inflation (IDCPIY) slowed for a fourth straight month in December to the lowest level since March 2010, an easing that may give the central bank scope to cut interest rates further.
Consumer prices (IDCPIY) rose 3.79 percent from a year earlier in December, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today. That compares with the 3.86 percent median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Inflation was 4.15 percent in November.
Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution and his board left the nation’s benchmark interest rate at 6 percent last month after cuts in October and November, joining New Zealand and South Korea in holding borrowing costs as Europe’s growth prospects deteriorated. Price pressures are easing in the Asia- Pacific region as demand for exports slows.
“December’s inflation figure is better than our expectation,” said a, senior economist at PT Bank Mandiri in Jakarta. “We think inflation this year may accelerate to 5.5 percent. The government’s plan to limit subsidized-fuel consumption and to raise electricity tariffs may give pressure. With this condition, the chance for the central bank to cut the benchmark rate decreases. We think it will maintain the rate at 6 percent.”
The central bank last month predicted inflation may accelerate to as much as 5 percent in 2012.
Stocks, Currency Decline
The rupiah fell 0.6 percent to 9,125 per dollar at 12:21 p.m. in Jakarta, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. The currency slid 0.6 percent last year. The Jakarta Composite index (JCI) declined 0.3 percent to 3,810.31 at the noon break, falling for the first time in three days.
Indonesia regained on Dec. 15 an investment-grade rating for its sovereign debt at Fitch Ratings, as Southeast Asia’s largest economy withstands faltering global growth. The fourth- most populous country lost its investment-grade rating during the Asian financial crisis in December 1997.
Consumer prices climbed 0.57 percent in December from the previous month, today’s report showed. Core inflation slowed to 4.34 percent in December on a year-on-year basis, compared with 4.44 percent previously reported for November.
Exports (IDEXPY) rose 8.3 percent in November from a year earlier, the statistics department said. That compares with the 16.7 percent pace reported for October. Imports rose 18.4 percent, compared with 29.1 percent in October.
The central bank’s next scheduled policy meeting is Jan. 12.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat inflasi selama Desember sebesar 0,57%. Sementara inflasi secara keseluruhan sepanjang tahun 2011 sebesar 3,79% atau di bawah target pemerintah yang sebesar 5,65%.
BPS mencatat inflasi Desember 2011 sebesar 0,57% dengan inflasi tahun kalender 3,79% dan inflasi year on year 3,79%. Untuk inflasi inti bulan Desember sebesar 0,28% dan inflasi inti tahunan sebesar 4,34%. Sebenyak 66 kota mengalami inflasi, inflasi tertinggi terjadi di Kupang 2,19% dan terendah di Tanjung Pinang 0,02%.
Demikian disampaikan Plt Kepala BPS Suryamin dalam konferensi pers di kantor BPS, Jalan DR Sutomo, Jakarta, Senin (2/1/2012).
Selama bulan Desember, penyumbang inflasi terbesar adalah bahan makanan yang naik 0,37%, dengan andil ke inflasi 1,62%. Andil inflasi bahan makanan selama tahun 2011 mencapai 0,84%. Angka itu turun dibandingkan andil bahan makanan terhadap inflasi selama tahun 20110 yang sebesar 3,5%.