RATING NKRI: investment grade … 030911

Kamis, 25 Agustus 2011 | 09:35 oleh Edy Can
RATING
Japanese agency affirms RI investment grade
kontan

JAKARTA. The Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCRA) affirmed on Wednesday Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating as investment grade, indicating confidence in the country’s economy amid global economic uncertainties, senior officials said.

The JCRA was the first major rating agency to rate Indonesia’s debt papers as investment grade in July last year as it upgraded the rating to BBB-with a stable outlook.

Top global rating agencies Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service upgraded the country’s credit rating to one notch below investment grade earlier this year with possibilities for a further upgrade in the near future.

Hopes of an investment-grade credit rating for Indonesia emerged at a time when the same rating agencies cut the sovereign debt rating for developed nations such as Japan, several European countries and even the United States.

An investment-grade credit rating shows a nation’s fiscal strength as it indicates a nation’s ability to buy back debt papers it has issued.

Several conservative fund managers like pension funds in developed countries normally require their assets to be invested in investment-grade rated securities. Therefore, analysts have said that an investment grade from top rating agencies would boost financial asset prices in Indonesia as capital inflows would surge.

The JCRA said in a press statement that the investment-grade affirmation reflected Indonesia’s sustainable economic growth outlook underpinned by solid domestic demand, alleviated public debt burden brought by prudent fiscal management and reinforced resilience to external shocks stemming from accumulated foreign exchange reserves and overseas-debt management capacity.

In the first half of this year, Indonesia’s economy grew 6.5 percent with lower inflation at 4.61 percent, while the government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is also low at 26 percent.

The JCRA main sovereign analysts for Indonesia, Yoshihiko Tamura and Sakura Yamamoto, said that Indonesia would be able to sustain rapid economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability and fiscal health in the years to come.

“The affirmation of investment grade represents a level of confidence in Indonesia’s economy which shows encouraging performance amid an uncertain situation in the global economy,” Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution said. “This confidence is a recognition of our discipline and prudent macroeconomic-policy implementation.”

Darmin expected the Japanese rating agency’s outlook to help increase global optimism in Indonesia’s economy.

“Indonesia deserves an investment grade,” Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa said.

“Alhough several rating agencies have not yet rated Indonesia as investment grade, we have been treated as an investment-grade [nation],” he added, citing lowering government bond yields as an example of “investment-grade treatment”.

Central bankers and government officials are expecting an investment grade from either S&P, Fitch or Moody’s by at least early next year.

Bank Mandiri research on the impact of an investment-grade rating upgrade in over 30 countries shows that portfolio investors in the stock and debt markets usually react before the actual upgrade. “Afterward, direct investment will surge as investors better trust the country,” the bank’s chief economist Destry Damayanti said. (Esther Samboh/The Jakarta Post)
Konsumsi masyarakat pada Agustus jadi motor pertumbuhan ekonomi

Oleh Agust Supriadi

Minggu, 04 September 2011 | 15:04 WIB

JAKARTA : Ekonom menilai meningkatnya konsumsi masyarakat sepanjang Agustus, yang bertepatan dengan puasa dan lebaran, menjadi motor utama pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal III/2011.
Kendati demikian, laju pertumbuhan ekonominya tidak akan berbeda jauh dengan realisasi kuartal-kuartal sebelumnya yang rata-rata sebesar 6,5%.
“Konsumsi masyarakat yang tinggi pada Agustus memang menjadi pemicu pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal III (2011). Namun jangan lupa penjualan motor dan mobil biasanya turun selama puasa dan baru meningkat pascalebaran. Jadi pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal III bisa jadi sama dengan kuartal-kuartal sebelumnya,” ujar Ekonom Senior Standard Chartered Fauzi Ikhsan, hari ini.
Secara agregat, kata dia, biasanya pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mencapai puncaknya pada kuartal terakhir seiring dengan meningkatnya stimulus fiskal. Menurut dia, peran belanja pemerintah baru akan optimal pada kuartal-kuartal terakhir tahun ini.
“Biasanya pertumbuhan semester II lebih tinggi dari semester I karena ada stimulus pemerintah yang besar. Tapi kami lihat konsumsi masyarakat juga masih akan cukup kuat sehingga kami perkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini sekitar 6,5%,” tuturnya.
Sementara dari sisi global, Fauzi Ikhsan mengatakan perlambatan ekonomi Amerika Serikat dan kawasan Eropa saat ini akan berpengaruh pada sektor financial, terutama pasar modal, negara-negara di dunia. Untuk Indonesia, dia meyakini imbasnya tidak akan terlalu besar terhadeap perekonomian nasional.
“Karena 70% dari perekonomian Indonesia itu berasal dari domestik, hanya sekitar 10% dari ekspor, perdagangan komoditas. Selama harga komoditas dunia tidak terlalu anjlok, ekspor kita aman,” katanya.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal II/2011 sebesar 6,5% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya.
Kontribusi tertinggi pertumbuhan ekonomi masih dipegang oleh konsumsi rumah tangga sebesar 2,6%, sebaliknya yang terendah belanja pemerintah 0,7%. Sementara ekspor neto (minus impor) menyumbang sebesar 2,2%, dan pembentukan modal tetap bruto (PMTB) atau investasi 2,1% Secara kumulatif, laju produk domestik bruto (PDB) semester I mencapai 6,48%. Konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh 4,5%, belanja pemerintah 3,7%, PMTB 8,3%, ekspor 14,9%, dan impor 15,8%.(mmh)

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